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1.
Most of the methods used in the ARCH literature for selecting the appropriate model are based on evaluating the ability of the models to describe the data. An alternative model selection approach is examined based on the evaluation of the predictability of the models in terms of standardized prediction errors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Huseyin Ince 《Computational Management Science》2006,3(2):161-174
The nature of the financial time series is complex, continuous interchange of stochastic and deterministic regimes. Therefore,
it is difficult to forecast with parametric techniques. Instead of parametric models, we propose three techniques and compare
with each other. Neural networks and support vector regression (SVR) are two universally approximators. They are data-driven
non parametric models. ARCH/GARCH models are also investigated. Our assumption is that the future value of Istanbul Stock
Exchange 100 index daily return depends on the financial indicators although there is no known parametric model to explain
this relationship. This relationship comes from the technical analysis. Comparison shows that the multi layer perceptron networks
overperform the SVR and time series model (GARCH). 相似文献
3.
本文根据汉寿县1960─1988年洪涝灾害资料,应用加权列联表分析法,与前期气候因子建立洪涝趋势预测模式。最后对1989─1990年洪涝试报,取得了满意的效果。 相似文献
4.
5.
Mieko Tanaka-Yamawaki 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2003,55(2):437-446
Contrary to the common sense in economics and financial engineering, price fluctuations at very fine level of motion exhibit
various evidences against the efficient market hypothesis. We attempt to investigate this issue by studying extensive amount
of foreign currency exchange data for over five years at the finest level of resolution. We specifically focus on the proposed
stability in binomial conditional probabilities originally found in much smaller examples of financial time series. In order
to handle very large data, we have written an efficient program in C that automatically generates those conditional probabilities.
It is found that the stability is maintained for extremely large time duration that covers almost the entire period. Based
on the length of conditions for which the conditional probabilities are distinguishable each other, we identify the length
of memory being less than 3 movements. 相似文献
6.
FexNi100−x nanometric films were deposited on SiO2/Si substrates at room temperature using the pulsed laser deposition technique. The targets were Fe-Ni amorphous magnetic foils with composition Fe50Ni50, Fe35Ni65 and Fe22Ni78. Morphological and structural properties of the deposited films were investigated using scanning electron microscopy, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry, grazing incidence X-ray diffraction, and X-ray reflectivity. Electrical and magnetic characteristics of the films were investigated by using the four-point probe and the magneto-optic Kerr effect techniques, respectively. The film properties are strictly dependent on the Fe-Ni compositional ratio. 相似文献
7.
采用AMI方法研究了10种新型的磺酰脲类除草剂的电子结构,并以原子的Mulliken净电荷和除草剂在不同浓度(100,10mg/L)下对油菜、稗草两种作物的根、茎部位的抑制率为训练样本集。构造并训练得到具有活性预测能力的BP神经网络.结果表明,该BP网络不仅能对训练样本很好拟合。亦能对未知化合物的活性作出很好的预测. 相似文献
8.
Synthesis and Structure of K3N Two phases in the binary system K/N have been obtained via co‐deposition of potassium and nitrogen onto polished sapphire at 77 K and subsequent heating to room temperature. The powder diffraction pattern of one of these phases can be satisfactorily interpreted by assuming the composition K3N, and the anti‐TiI3 structure‐type, which is also adopted by Cs3O. The resulting hexagonal lattice constants are: a = 779.8(2), c = 759.2(9) pm, Z = 2, P63/mcm. Comparison with possible structures of K3N generated by computational methods and refined at Hartree‐Fock‐ and DFT level, reveals that the energetically most favoured structure has not formed (presumable Li3P‐type), but instead one of those with very low density. In this respect, the findings for K3N are analogous to the results on Na3N. The thermal evolution of the deposited starting mixture has been investigated. Hexagonal K3N transforms to another K/N phase at 233 K. Its XRD can be fully indexed resulting in an orthorhombic cell a = 1163, b = 596, c = 718 pm. Decomposition leaving elemental potassium as the only residue occurs at 263 K. 相似文献
9.
Condition monitoring and life prediction of the vehicle engine is an important and urgent problem during the vehicle development process. The vibration signals that are closely associated with the engine running condition and its development trend are complex and nonlinear. The chaos theory is used to treat the nonlinear dynamical system recently. A novel chaos method in conjunction with SVD (singular value decomposition)denoising skill are used to predict the vibration time series. Two types of time series and their prediction errors are provided to illustrate the practical utility of the method. 相似文献
10.
Three fixtures for conducting laboratory fretting fatigue tests are described and their respective testing methods and the
results of the analysis are compared. Each of these fixtures has been used to investigate the effects of various parameters
of interest in fretting fatigue. These fixtures include a unique apparatus in which all load applied to the specimen is transferred
to the fretting pads, an apparatus similar to many found in the literature where partial load transfer occurs across the pads,
and a simplified dovetail fixture in which the clamping load, P, and the shear load, Q, are varied in phase. Select test conditions from prior experiments performed on identical material and resulting in similar
lives ranging from one to ten million cycles from these fixtures are identified. The various testing conditions were used
to compute the unique stress field for each case. The resulting contact stresses were used to calculate crack initiation based
criteria, and to calculate stress intensity factors. The three fixtures were shown to be able to accommodate a range of loads,
fretting pad contours, and specimen geometries that produced a variety of stress fields. A crack-initiation-based criterion
was shown to predict the failure lives of thinner specimens accurately. The stress intensity factor calculations showed the
possibility of a crack arresting for a stress field that decays rapidly and the possibility of a local minimum for K as a function of depth. The fixtures are shown to be complementary in generating data for development of robust fretting
fatigue models that use these criteria. 相似文献