Probabilism,entropies and strictly proper scoring rules

Accuracy arguments are the en vogue route in epistemic justifications of probabilism and further norms governing rational belief. These arguments often depend on the fact that the employed inaccuracy measure is strictly proper. I argue controversially that it is ill-advised to assume that the employed inaccuracy measures are strictly proper and that strictly proper statistical scoring rules are a more natural class of measures of inaccuracy. Building on work in belief elicitation I show how strictly proper statistical scoring rules can be used to give an epistemic justification of probabilism.An agent's evidence does not play any role in these justifications of probabilism. Principles demanding the maximisation of a generalised entropy depend on the agent's evidence. In the second part of the paper I show how to simultaneously justify probabilism and such a principle. I also investigate scoring rules which have traditionally been linked with entropies.     

Differential Entropy and Dynamics of Uncertainty

We analyze the functioning of Gibbs-type entropy functionals in the time domain, with emphasis on Shannon and Kullback-Leibler entropies of time-dependent continuous probability distributions. The Shannon entropy validity is extended to probability distributions inferred from L ²(R ⁿ ) quantum wave packets. In contrast to the von Neumann entropy which simply vanishes on pure states, the differential entropy quantifies the degree of probability (de)localization and its time development. The associated dynamics of the Fisher information functional quantifies nontrivial power transfer processes in the mean, both in dissipative and quantum mechanical cases. PACS NUMBERS: 05.45.+b, 02.50.-r, 03.65.Ta, 03.67.-a     

A relaxed model and its homogenization for nematic liquid crystals in composite materials

We analyse a model for equilibrium configurations of composite systems of nematic liquid crystal with polymer inclusions, in the presence of an external magnetic field. We assume that the system has a periodic structure, and consider the relaxed problem on the unit length constraint of the nematic director field. The relaxation of the Oseen–Frank energy functional is carried out by including bulk as well as surface energy penalty terms, rendering the problem fully non‐linear. We employ two‐scale convergence methods to obtain effective configurations of the system, as the size of the polymeric inclusions tends to zero. We discuss the minimizers of the effective energies for, both, the constrained as well as the unconstrained models. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Note on Topological Entropy of Maps

For a given collection of subsets of a compact metric space X which cover X,the entropies,hm(f)and hi(f),are introduced for a continuous map f of X to itseif. Also the concept of shadowing property with same end point (SPSEP for short) is introduced. The main results are,(1)H(f)≤hi(f)+hm(f)and,(2)h(f)=hm(f)whenever f has SPSEP,where h(f) is the topological entropy of f. Moreover,several corollaries are obtained.     

MEI, SOI and mid-range correlations in the onset of El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Entropy analysis and wavelet transforms are used to study the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and multivariate ENSO index (MEI) indexes for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Trends to large decreasing symbolic chains responsible for La Niña and interrupted increasing chains for El Niño are found in the MEI persistence series. These are all located in regions where the wavelet transforms of both indexes reveal the existence of mid-range correlations. The SOI and MEI indexes are mutually correlated in a non-trivial manner in the time.     

Mathematical analysis of investment systems

Investment systems are studied using a framework that emphasize their profiles (the cumulative probability distribution on all the possible percentage gains of trades) and their log return functions (the expected average return per trade in logarithmic scale as a function of the investment size in terms of the percentage of the available capital). The efficiency index for an investment system, defined as the maximum of the log return function, is proposed as a measure to compare investment systems for their intrinsic merit. This efficiency index can be viewed as a generalization of Shannon's information rate for a communication channel. Applications are illustrated.     

New variants of the generalized level method for minimization of convex nondifferentiable functions taking infinite values

New variants of the generalized level method for minimization of convex Lipschitz functions on a compact set with a nonempty interior are proposed. These variants include the well-known generalized and classical level methods. For the new variants, an estimate of the convergence rate is found, including the variants in which the auxiliary problems are solved approximately.     

Empirical minimization

We investigate the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm using various methods. We first analyze it by comparing the empirical, random, structure and the original one on the class, either in an additive sense, via the uniform law of large numbers, or in a multiplicative sense, using isomorphic coordinate projections. We then show that a direct analysis of the empirical minimization algorithm yields a significantly better bound, and that the estimates we obtain are essentially sharp. The method of proof we use is based on Talagrand's concentration inequality for empirical processes. Research partially supported by NSF under award DMS-0434393. Research partially supported by the Australian Research Council Discovery Porject DP0343616.     

Some effective methods for unconstrained optimization based on the solution of systems of ordinary differential equations

In this paper, we review briefly some methods for minimizing a functionF(x), which proceed by follwoing the solution curve of a system of ordinary differential equations. Such methods have often been thought to be unacceptably expensive; but we show, by means of extensive numerical tests, using a variety of algorithms, that the ODE approach can in fact be implemented in such a way as to be more than competitive with currently available conventional techniques.This work was supported by a SERC research studentship for the first author. Both authors are indebted to Dr. J. J. McKeown and Dr. K. D. Patel of SCICON Ltd, the collaborating establishment, for their advice and encouragement.     

Weak logarithmic Sobolev inequalities and entropic convergence

In this paper we introduce and study a weakened form of logarithmic Sobolev inequalities in connection with various others functional inequalities (weak Poincaré inequalities, general Beckner inequalities, etc.). We also discuss the quantitative behaviour of relative entropy along a symmetric diffusion semi-group. In particular, we exhibit an example where Poincaré inequality can not be used for deriving entropic convergence whence weak logarithmic Sobolev inequality ensures the result.