Towards an Operational Model for Prevention and Treatment of Asthma Attacks

Asthma is one of the major chronic diseases in many countries. At present there is no cure for asthma, but medical advances can help to reduce the chances of attacks of the condition. Efficient care for asthma involves complexity, uncertainty, variability and the use of scarce resources, and these are the same conditions that indicate a possible use for the modelling approach of operational research. This paper is concerned with a pilot model that was developed through joint work by medical professionals and operational researchers. The development of the model is explained and illustrative results indicate the potential value of the modelling approach for the care of asthma in the community.     

Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals

The internal dynamics of a hospital represent a complex non-linear structure. Planning and management of bed capacities must be evaluated within an environment of uncertainty, variability and limited resources. A common approach is to plan and manage capacities based on simple deterministic spreadsheet calculations. This paper demonstrates that these calculations typically do not provide the appropriate information and result in underestimating true bed requirements. More sophisticated, flexible and necessarily detailed capacity models are needed. The development and use of such a simulation model is presented in this paper. The modelling work, in conjunction with a major UK NHS Trust, considers various types of patient flows, at the individual patient level, and resulting bed needs over time. The consequence of changes in capacity planning policies and management of existing capacities can be readily examined. The work has highlighted the need for evaluating hospital bed capacities in light of both bed occupancies and refused admission rates. The relationship between occupancy and refusals is complex and often overlooked by hospital managers.     

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a simulation-based approach for the evaluation of intervention strategies

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV is the most significant source of HIV infection in children below the age of 15 years. In 2000 alone, about 600 000 new infections occurred, the vast majority from mothers living in developing countries who were not aware of their HIV-positive status. To date, at least 4.3 million children have died from AIDS. In this paper, we discuss the development of an operational model that can be used to evaluate intervention options for the prevention of MTCT of HIV. The problem was approached by defining suitable pregnancy risk groups, prevention options and the required model outputs to evaluate different intervention strategies. The method chosen to approach the problem was a discrete-event, three-phase simulation, built in Visual Basic, with a stochastic semi-Markov structure. The developed model takes individual pregnant women through each stage of their pregnancy, labour and birth. Different intervention strategies may be modelled at any time, including short-course antiretroviral drugs and cessation of breastfeeding. The model is demonstrated with data from Botswana, which has one of the highest HIV-infection rates in the world.     

Computation of mixed mode stress intensity factors in a four-point bend specimen

Four-point bend specimen is one of the most important specimens of the fracture mechanics because it can produce mixed modes I and II. Therefore, computation of stress intensity factors in this specimen is of practical interest. Several relations have been suggested that no one of them has completely considered the effects of the loading point and crack geometry. In this paper, mixed mode stress intensity factors of the bend specimen are computed by finite element method (FEM) and after validating by comparing with the available results in the literature, the results will be assessed to determine the effects of different crack location and loading distances from the middle of the specimen. Finally, two new coefficients comprising these effects are introduced.     

The impact of the natural sciences on archaeology

This article reviews some of the applications of physics to the solution of archaeological problems. The use of magnetic, resistivity and electromagnetic surveying techniques for the location of buried features is described. Various methods of age determination are outlined while the problems associated with radiocarbon dating of organic material and thermoluminescent dating of pottery are discussed in detail. The techniques, including petrological examination, chemical analysis and isotopic analysis, employed in the physical examination of archaeological artefacts are described. Examples of the application of these techniques in establishing the source of the raw materials used in pottery, metal and stone implements and in elucidating the techniques of manufacture of pottery and metal objects are also given.     

An Inspection Policy for the Weibull Case

This paper is concerned with the detection of failure of a system when the time to failure is a Weibull variate. The suggested inspection policy depends on a single meaningful parameter. Graphical aids for computing an appropriate inspection policy on the basis of costs, or on the basis of mean time between failure and its detection are given.     

A Nearly Optimal Inspection Policy

This paper is concerned with an easily computable inspection policy for the detection of the failure of a system. A one-parameter policy is suggested and it is shown that this policy has the property of decreasing (increasing) intervals between successive inspection times if the system has an increasing (decreasing) failure rate. Cost comparisons, using linear cost functions, with a computationally difficult optimal policy which has a minimium expected cost show that the proposed policy compares quite well with the optimal policy.