Multi-period forecasting and scenario generation with limited data

Data for optimization problems often comes from (deterministic) forecasts, but it is naïve to consider a forecast as the only future possibility. A more sophisticated approach uses data to generate alternative future scenarios, each with an attached probability. The basic idea is to estimate the distribution of forecast errors and use that to construct the scenarios. Although sampling from the distribution of errors comes immediately to mind, we propose instead to approximate rather than sample. Benchmark studies show that the method we propose works well.     

The pressure–volume–temperature relationship of cellulose

Pressure–volume–temperature (PVT) measurements of α-cellulose with different water contents, were performed at temperatures from 25 to 180 °C and pressures from 19.6 to 196 MPa. PVT measurements allowed observation of the combined effects of pressure and temperature on the specific volume during cellulose thermo-compression. All isobars showed a decrease in cellulose specific volume with temperature. This densification is associated with a transition process of the cellulose, occurring at a temperature defined by the inflection point T _t of the isobar curve. T _t decreases from 110 to 40 °C with pressure and is lower as moisture content increases. For isobars obtained at high pressures and high moisture contents, after attaining a minimum, an increase in volume is observed with temperature that may be related to free water evaporation. PVT α-cellulose experimental data was compared with predicted values from a regression analysis of the Tait equations of state, usually applied to synthetic polymers. Good correlations were observed at low temperatures and low pressures. The densification observed from the PVT experimental data, at a temperature that decreases with pressure, could result from a sintering phenomenon, but more research is needed to actually understand the cohesion mechanism under these conditions.     

Parallel machines scheduling with a deteriorating maintenance activity

In this paper, we consider parallel identical machines scheduling problems with a deteriorating maintenance activity. In this model, each machine has a deteriorating maintenance activity, that is, delaying the maintenance increases the time required to perform it. We need to make a decision on when to schedule the deteriorating maintenance activities and the sequence of jobs to minimize total completion time. We provide a polynomial time algorithm to solve the total completion time minimization problem.     

Experimental evidence for the breakdown of a Hartree-Fock approach in a weakly interacting Bose gas

We investigate the physics underlying the presence of a quasicondensate in a nearly one dimensional, weakly interacting trapped atomic Bose gas. We show that a Hartree-Fock (mean-field) approach fails to predict the existence of the quasicondensate in the center of the cloud: the quasicondensate is generated by interaction-induced correlations between atoms and not by a saturation of the excited states. Numerical calculations based on Bogoliubov theory give an estimate of the crossover density in agreement with experimental results.     

Inhibition of chitin synthase by a series of 7-deoxycasuarine stereoisomers designed as constrained analogues of the potent inhibitor 6-deoxyhomoDMDP

A series of polyhydroxy-pyrrolizidines were designed as constrained analogues of 6-deoxy-homoDMDP, a potent naturally occurring inhibitor of chitin synthase. Enzymatic evaluation revealed that 7-deoxycasuarine was the best inhibitor of the series (IC50 = 820 microM) displaying a noncompetitive inhibition pattern, whereas the other tested compounds had IC50 in the range 4.3-18.9 mM. This is the first report of pyrrolizidine-type iminosugars inhibiting a glycosyltransferase. In addition, the inhibitory potencies towards glycosidases of these synthetic casuarine analogues is also disclosed.     

Worst-case analysis for flow shop scheduling problems with an exponential learning effect

A real industrial production phenomenon, referred to as learning effects, has drawn increasing attention. However, most research on this issue considers only single machine problems. Motivated by this limitation, this paper considers flow shop scheduling problems with an exponential learning effect. By the exponential learning effect, we mean that the processing time of a job is defined by an exponent function of its position in a processing permutation. The objective is to minimize one of the four regular performance criteria, namely, the total completion time, the total weighted completion time, the discounted total weighted completion time, and the sum of the quadratic job completion times. We present heuristic algorithms by using the optimal permutations for the corresponding single-machine scheduling problems. We also analyse the worst-case bound of our heuristic algorithms.     

Three Dimensionality and Orbital Characters of the Fermi Surface in (Tl,Rb)_{y}Fe_{2-x}Se_{2}

We report a comprehensive angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy study of the tridimensional electronic bands in the recently discovered Fe selenide superconductor (Tl,Rb)_{y}Fe_{2-x}Se_{2} (T_{c}=32 K). We determined the orbital characters and the k_{z} dependence of the low energy electronic structure by tuning the polarization and the energy of the incident photons. We observed a small 3D electron Fermi surface pocket near the Brillouin zone center and a 2D like electron Fermi surface pocket near the zone boundary. The photon energy dependence, the polarization analysis and the local-density approximation calculations suggest a significant contribution from the Se 4p_{z} and Fe 3d_{xy} orbitals to the small electron pocket. We argue that the emergence of Se 4p_{z} states might be the cause of the different magnetic properties between Fe chalcogenides and Fe pnictides.     

Approximating the integral of a multifunction

Given a weakly converging sequence of measures, we study the convergence of the corresponding integrals of a continuous unbounded multifunction. We also study the implication of these results to variational problems, and provide further approximating results for the integral of a multifunction, involving both truncation of the multifunction and measure approximation.     

A DST-based approach for construction project risk analysis

Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.