大气运动的自忆性方程

基于大气运动是一种不可逆过程的观点,引进了忆及过去时次资料的记忆函数。通过定义Hilbert空间中的内积,导出了大气运动的自忆性概念,从而把通常的大气运动方程推广为包含多时次观测的自忆性方程。作为示例,文中给出了正压无辐散模式和正压原始方程模式的自忆性方程。 文中证明了现存的若干差分格式可以通过给记忆函数以特殊值而从自忆性方程中导出,论证了现有的多时次数值预报模式可以统一在自忆性方程的框架中。在求记忆函数时若采用随机型方法,就可使自忆性方程变为一种动力-统计预报模型。     

气候预报自忆模式及其初步应用

从非绝热大气热力学方程和水分平衡方程出发,运用大气自忆性原理,导出了一个用于短期气候预报的数学模式,它由含地表气温,降水和５００ｈＰａ高度三变量的差分－积分方程组成。     

应用线性学习机原理作分类预报

本文把线性学习机的迭代算法应用到分类预报上,就天气预报的实例来说明如何求得两类或多类识别函数的方法,这种方法当数据取0—1型或整型时甚为简便,适合于手算使用。     

开关型Logistic模型

基于界壳理论,将界门的开关作用引入到Logistic模型中,建立了一个新的离散Logistic模型,对模型进行了映射计算,分析了在不同参数下模型的非线性特征,计算得出了若干常定数和循环小数。     

列序分析及其对空气污染的应用

在数据分析中常用计算相关系数来分析因变量与自变量间的关系,其基本概念是以统计样本来对总体进行估计.列序分析则宁可把问题限制在样本集内,即在已有采样数据的情况下,因变量与m个自变量中哪个自变量联系最密切?哪个又居其次?应该说列序分析更切合实际需要.论证了列序分析的原理、数学表达,同时用大气污染的实测数据进行了计算,对结果进行了分析,且与相关系数的异同作了对比.     

海气随机气候模式及其应用

基于能量平衡气候模式,考虑了随机力对海-气相互作用的影响和不同时空尺度耦合的作用,将描写海温和气温交互作遥随机动力模式化为一个Fokker-Planck方程,然后用矩阵连分法进行求解,并对CO     

A NEW DIFFERENCE SCHEME WITH MULTI-TIME LEVELS

In view of making the best use of information coming from past observational data, a new difference scheme with multi-time levels (p>3) is suggested. Some mathematical characteristics of the scheme, which is called the retrospective scheme, are discussed. The numerical results of some examples show that the calculation accuracy of linear and nonlinear advection equations computed with the retrospective scheme is higher than that obtained via the leapfrog scheme. The scheme can be applied to many fields, such as meteorology, engineering physics, astronautics, environment and economy etc, where systematic observations are made normally.     

Self-memorization Equation in Atmospheric Motion

In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion isan irreversible process, a memory function which can recall observational data in the past is suggested. In terms of defining an inner product in Hilbert space, a new concept of self-memorization in the atmospheric motion is proposed, thus the traditional atmospheric motion equation is generalized to a self-memorization equation in inclusion of multi-time observations. Self-memorization equations of a barotropic nondivergent model and a barotropic primitive equation model are exemplified.It is proved that some existing difference schemes can be derived from the self-memorization equation by giving particular values to memory function. However, it demonstrates that multi-time numerical prediction models can be unified into a framework of self-memorization equation. If a stochastic method in solving the memory function is taken, the selfmemorization equation will be transformed to a sort of dynamic-stochastic prediction model.     

模糊马尔柯夫过程及其在气候对经济的影响研究中的应用

本文将一维模糊马尔柯夫过程作了改进,导出一个多维模糊马尔柯夫过程,并用于气候对经济活动影响和经济预测的研究。对气候指数和经济指数组成的二维时间序列的计算表明,经济指数分量的拟合率在90％以上,此2-FMP模型很好地反映了经济指数的变化。本文还从信息熵的角度估算了气候指数对经济指数的影响。