On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Proof of expansion of the reciprocal distance in spheroidal coordinates

A concise proof is given for the expansion of the reciprocal distance between two points in spheroidal harmonics. The proof is given for an oblate and a prolate spheroid.     

Optimization of Mass Transfer Processes in the Zone of the Air Electrode of a Fuel Cell with a Solid Polymer Electrolyte

A two-dimensional mathematical model for the transport of reactants in a fuel cell with a solid polymer electrolyte is developed. The model is used for analyzing spatial distributions of the concentration of reactants and current density over the cell. The effect of the catalytic-layer activity, reactant speed, bipolar-plate geometry, thickness and porosity of current collector and/or gas-diffusion sublayer, and the reaction mixture composition on the fuel cell efficiency is estimated theoretically and experimentally.     

Structural phase transformations and physical properties of intercalation compounds in the Cr0.5Ti(Se1−x Tex)2 system

The atomic structure and magnetic and electric properties of the Cr_0.5TiSe₂-Cr_0.5TiTe₂ system of intercalated phases were studied in detail by gradually replacing selenium by tellurium. It was revealed that this replacement changes the crystalline structure from monoclinic in the initial compounds to hexagonal in the compounds containing various types of chalcogen atoms; this is accompanied by disordering of chromium atoms in the van der Waals gaps. The electrical resistance and magnetic characteristics vary nonmonotonically on replacement of selenium by tellurium, which is associated with a change in the degree of atomic disordering during the transition from Cr_0.5TiSe₂ to Cr_0.5TiTe₂.     

Laser-induced breakdown threshold and fracture versus the nanostructure of two-phase glass

The radiation hardness and mechanical strength of single-and two-phase glasses are studied for the case when nanosecond laser pulses (λ= 1.06 μm, τ_0.5 ≈ 12.5 ns) are focused inside the material. Laser interferometry is applied to measure the displacement of the free surface, find optical breakage thresholds, and carry out the fractographic analysis of damaged regions. It is shown that breakdown channels and damage regions develop in a nonlinear manner according to optical breakdown mechanisms, changing each other with an increase in the laser energy. The strength of the two-phase glass is found to be more than four times that of the single-phase glass, although their elastic properties differ insignificantly. Such a considerable difference in the hardness of these materials with chemically similar constitutents is attributed to the presence of the double-lattice nanometer-scale structure of the two-phase glass.     

Modeling of the Kinetics of Intramolecular Processes and Transient Spectra with Allowance for Nonradiative Transitions

It has been shown that the kinetics of intramolecular processes and time-resolved spectra with allowance for the quantum beats of the resonant states of isomers or isolated subsystems of levels of one isomeric form can be described with the use of a molecular model interpreting the effect of beats as a nonradiative transition. We have obtained an expression for the nonradiative transition probability, which is directly proportional to the beat frequency and depends oscillatorily on time, thus modeling the effect of beats. The parameter of the molecular system model is the beat frequency directly related to the parameter characterizing the intramolecular interisomeric interactions (the corresponding nondiagonal element of the energy matrix) rather than the value of the nonradiative transition probability. The character of the change in the level populations and, accordingly, in the band intensities in the spectra in the proposed model is in good agreement with the experiment, including the fine structure of the time dependences — oscillations of the line intensities. In analyzing the temporal experiment with a high resolution, it is necessary to take into account the instrument function leading to quantitative and qualitative changes in the time dependences. The traditional model of nonradiative transitions with a constant probability value has a very limited range of applicability — very high beat frequencies compared to the probability of optical transitions.     

Exchange interactions of excitons localized at opposite interfaces in type-II GaAs/AlAs superlattices: Optically detected magnetic resonance and level anticrossing

Two types of excitons, localized at opposite interfaces and characterized by different magnitudes of the exchange interactions at the same radiation energies, are simultaneously in type-II GaAs/AlAs superlattices. It is shown that the additional long-wavelength luminescence line in superlattices grown with growth interruptions after the GaAs layers is due to the recombination of an exciton localized at an inverted interface in regions where the quantum-well width is increased by one monolayer. Pis’ma Zh. éksp. Teor. Fiz. 64, No. 10, 701–706 (25 November 1996)     

Activation of cells in a cavitation flow

A cavitation flow in an expanding nozzle is numerically simulated. The cavitation activation of cells is studied experimentally.