A STATE SPACE BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF PACIFIC HALIBUT

Abstract Evaluation of potential economic consequences of alternative management actions requires an understanding of how the biological stock will be affected by the management action and an understanding of the response of economic systems to changes in the timing, magnitude, and size distribution of harvests and changes in the location and catchability of the biological stock. We use a hybrid structural time series model to represent Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) stock and recruitment dynamics and a system of structural equations to represent supply and demand relationships for Pacific halibut from Alaska and British Columbia. Model simulations explore the economic effects of changes in recruitment success, growth rate, and carrying capacity, and changes in international supplies of halibut.     

Viscosity and stress autocorrelation function in supercooled water: a molecular dynamics study

Following Guo, G.-J., and Zhang, Y.-G., 2001, Molec. Phys., 99, 283, which calculates the bulk and shear viscosities of SPC/E water at 30°C and 0.999 g cm^?3, further molecular dynamics simulations have been performed at state points of 0°C, ?20°C, ?40°C, and ?60°C along an approximate isobar with the previous state point. SACF and BACF (stress autocorrelation functions related to shear and bulk viscosities, respectively) of high precision have been obtained and compared for their similarities and differences. Shear and bulk viscosities calculated from them showed an increased deviation from real water with decreasing temperature. These correlation functions were then fitted using a uniform two-step relaxation function including a fast oscillatory Kohlrausch law and a slow straightforward Kohlrausch law. The fitting parameters of SACF and BACF have been analysed in detail, and several interesting dynamic phenomena were observed. (1) The oscillation frequency of SACF (44 ~ 48ps^?1) for short time intervals agrees with the stretching mode of hydrogen bonds, while that of BACF (7 ~ 12ps^?1) agrees with the bending mode of hydrogen bonds. (2) With decreasing temperature, the slow relaxation fraction of the BACF increases, while that of the SACF remains constant. (3) The exponents β in the Kohlrausch laws with values greater than 1 are obtained for BACF at ambient temperatures. (4) With regard to both shear and bulk viscosities, the slow relaxation time largely increases with decreasing temperature, while the fast relaxation time slightly decreases. These phenomena are qualitatively explained and discussed.     

Constant pressure Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations of adsorption into narrow pores

An extension to the Gibbs ensemble method for the study of adsorption of fluids into pores is proposed. Since equality of pressure is not a necessary condition for full thermodynamic equilibrium between the bulk fluid and that confined in a narrow cavity, previous studies have been performed with the volume of both simulation cells fixed. More naturally, the pressure of the bulk fluid should be constrained and the volume (and hence density) allowed to attain its equilibrium value. Thus we propose a scheme in which volume fluctuations within the bulk box are permitted; the volume of the pore remains constant. The pressure is an input parameter and the amount of adsorption, as a function of applied pressure, is obtained directly. We demonstrate that the novel moves obey microscopic reversibility. Such a method is most useful when the equation of state for the model fluid is unknown. Thus, we illustrate the method by simulating an associating model of water adsorbed into a slit-shaped carbon pore with activated sites. Good qualitative correspondence with experiment is obtained; further refinement of our model is expected to yield quantitative agreement.     

Adsorption of water—methanol mixtures in carbon and aluminosilicate pores: a molecular simulation study

A theoretical study is reported of the adsorption behaviour of water—methanol mixtures in slit carbon and in uncharged alumino-silicate micropores. The adsorption isotherms are obtained for a pore of width of 2 nm and at a temperature of 298 K from grand canonical ensemble Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the graphite and uncharged silicate surfaces are covered by a dense layer of flatly adsorbed water and methanol molecules having weaker hydrogen bonding. In the interior of the pore, the fluid exhibits bulk-like behaviour with a stronger hydrogen bonded structure. Solvation forces are also calculated as a function of pore size. The positive values found for the solvation force for all pore sizes reflect the hydrophobic interactions of the mixture with the carbon and uncharged alumino-silicate walls.     

POPULATION EXTINCTION IN DETERMINISTICAND STOCHASTIC DISCRETE‐TIME EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH PERIODIC COEFFICIENTS WITH APPLICATIONS TO AMPHIBIAN POPULATIONS

ABSTRACT. Discrete‐time deterministic and stochastic epidemic models are formulated for the spread of disease in a structured host population. The models have applications to a fungal pathogen affecting amphibian populations. The host population is structured according to two developmental stages, juveniles and adults. The juvenile stage is a post‐metamorphic, nonreproductive stage, whereas the adult stage is reproductive. Each developmental stage is further subdivided according to disease status, either susceptible or infected. There is no recovery from disease. Each year is divided into a fixed number of periods, the first period represents a time of births and the remaining time periods there are no births, only survival within a stage, transition to another stage or transmission of infection. Conditions are derived for population extinction and for local stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is shown that high transmission rates can destabilize the disease‐free equilibrium and low survival probabilities can lead to population extinction. Numerical simulations illustrate the dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models.     

Low field RYDMR: effects of orthogonal static and oscillating magnetic fields on radical recombination reactions

Reactions involving spin correlated radical pairs as intermediates are known to be sensitive to applied static and/or oscillating magnetic fields. In the reaction yield detected magnetic resonance (RYDMR) technique, an electromagnetic field in resonance with the electron Zeeman splitting produced by a strong static field is used to perturb the singlet ? triplet interconversion of the radical pair and so to affect the yield of geminate recombination. New experiments are described in which weak radiofrequency fields (? 300μT) in the frequency range 1–80 MHz are applied to radical ion pairs derived from pyrene and 1,3-dicyanobenzene, in the presence of a weak (? 3.0 mT) static magnetic field. Such experiments test the viability of RYDMR in low fields, provide insight into the crossover region between the zero-field and high field cases, and may give information on the distribution of radical pair lifetimes.     

Torsion—rotation interactions in monodeuterated acetaldehyde

This paper presents an analysis of previously observed rotational transitions up to J = 17 of the sym and asym rotamers of monodeuterated acetaldehyde using a three-level Hamiltonian incorporating connections between rotational states of the v_sym = 0, v_asym = 0⁺ and v_asym = 0 ^? torsional energy level manifolds. Rotational transitions observed to be significantly perturbed in earlier studies, where the spectrum was fitted using a single-level Hamiltonian for the v_sym = 0 torsional state and a separate two-level Hamiltonian for the non-rigid asym states, are now fitted satisfactorily. It is confirmed that the perturbations detected in the earlier studies and tentatively attributed there to torsion-rotation interactions between the energetically distinct sym and asym manifolds do indeed arise as a consequence of such interactions. Rotational and quartic centrifugal distortion constants are given for each torsional state, together with torsion-rotation coupling constants primarily responsible for the perturbations noted in the earlier studies. Tunnelling between the energetically distinct sym and asym potential wells of the torsional potential energy function is also discussed.