Information Geometric Theory in the Prediction of Abrupt Changes in System Dynamics

Detection and measurement of abrupt changes in a process can provide us with important tools for decision making in systems management. In particular, it can be utilised to predict the onset of a sudden event such as a rare, extreme event which causes the abrupt dynamical change in the system. Here, we investigate the prediction capability of information theory by focusing on how sensitive information-geometric theory (information length diagnostics) and entropy-based information theoretical method (information flow) are to abrupt changes. To this end, we utilise a non-autonomous Kramer equation by including a sudden perturbation to the system to mimic the onset of a sudden event and calculate time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and various statistical quantities with the help of numerical simulations. We show that information length diagnostics predict the onset of a sudden event better than the information flow. Furthermore, it is explicitly shown that the information flow like any other entropy-based measures has limitations in measuring perturbations which do not affect entropy.     

Information Length Analysis of Linear Autonomous Stochastic Processes

When studying the behaviour of complex dynamical systems, a statistical formulation can provide useful insights. In particular, information geometry is a promising tool for this purpose. In this paper, we investigate the information length for n-dimensional linear autonomous stochastic processes, providing a basic theoretical framework that can be applied to a large set of problems in engineering and physics. A specific application is made to a harmonically bound particle system with the natural oscillation frequency ω, subject to a damping γ and a Gaussian white-noise. We explore how the information length depends on ω and γ, elucidating the role of critical damping γ=2ω in information geometry. Furthermore, in the long time limit, we show that the information length reflects the linear geometry associated with the Gaussian statistics in a linear stochastic process.