A dynamic scorecard for monitoring baseline performance with application to tracking a mortgage portfolio

A principled technique for monitoring the performance of a consumer credit scorecard through time is derived from Kalman filtering. Standard approaches sporadically compare certain characteristics of the new applicants with those predicted from the scorecard. The new approach systematically updates the scorecard combining new applicant information with the previous best estimate. The dynamically updated scorecard is tracked through time and compared to limits calculated by sequential simulation from the baseline scorecard. The observation equation of the Kalman filter is tailored to take the results of fitting local scorecards by logistic regression to batches of new clients that arrive in the current time interval. The states in the Kalman filter represent the true or underlying score for each attribute in the card: the parameters of the logistic regression. Their progress in time is modelled by a random walk and the filter provides the best estimate of the scores using past and present information. We illustrate the technique using a commercial mortgage portfolio and the results indicate significant emerging deficiencies in the baseline scorecard.     

Recent changes in A-level Mathematics: is the availability and uptake of mechanics declining yet more?

In the past 6 years changes have occurred in GCE A-levels. Inparticular, there have been several major changes in A-levelMathematics courses. As engineering students are usually requiredto have studied A-level Mathematics, or its equivalent, thesechanges have had an effect on their prior mathematical knowledge.Moreover, engineering students traditionally obtained a goodgrounding in mechanics as part of their A-level Mathematicsqualification. However, mechanics, which was once included inthe core syllabus, is now optional. This article investigatesthe current availability and uptake of mechanics modules withinA-level Mathematics courses in schools. Comparisons are drawnbetween these results and results of a survey of schools in2004 and surveys of first year engineering students conductedin 2004 and 2005. It is found that there is a decline in theavailability of mechanics modules and the uptake of more thanone mechanics module has also decreased. The implications ofthese findings for engineering educators are discussed.     

Paradigms and Paradoxes: Energetics of Aqueous Oxyanions of Nonmetals and Metalloids

The enthalpies of formation of simple nonmetal or metalloid oxyanions in aqueous solution are discussed. Archival values are cited and estimates are made. Trends prove evasive.     

Local search algorithms for the min-max loop layout problem

In the min-max loop layout problem, machines are to be arranged around a loop of conveyor belt. The ordering of the machines dictates the number of circuits of the conveyor belt required to manufacture each of several products. The goal is to find an ordering of the machines that minimises the maximum number of circuits required for the manufacture of any of the products. Since the problem is strongly NP-hard, the study of heuristic methods is of interest. This paper proposes iterated descent and tabu search algorithms, and a randomised insertion algorithm. Results of extensive computational tests show that all of our algorithms outperform a previously known algorithm that applies a greedy heuristic to the solution of a linear programming relaxation. The best quality solutions are obtained with iterated descent. This adds further evidence to the belief that iterated descent can produce high quality solutions to a variety of combinatorial optimisation problems. Moreover, unlike some other local search algorithms, iterated descent does not require much tuning in order to be competitive.     

Spatial distribution and formation of nitrate radical NO<Stack><Subscript>3</Subscript><Superscript>2−</Superscript></Stack> in Antarctic calcitic evaporates

Nitrate radical NO₃²⁻ in calcitic evaporate was discovered in Antarctica. The distribution and formation of nitrate radical NO₃²⁻ in the calcite have been studied by pulse and continuous-wave electron spin resonance. In samples that had been annealed to destroy the NO₃²⁻, regeneration of the radical by γ-rays or UV light indicated that the radical was formed by UV light (with wavelengths less than 340 nm) from solar rays, not by environmental radiation. The nonuniform spatial distribution of the nitrate radical, which was deduced from high ratios of local spin density to total spin density, suggests that the nitrate impurity was introduced into the calcium carbonate after carbonate grain formation. Formation of the carbonate-containing nitrate requires the presence of high amounts of nitrate and a dry climate. Formation of the nitrate radical requires sample exposure to UV light. These conditions are satisfied in the environment of Antarctica.     

Immobilized polysiloxanes as stationary phases for high-performance liquid chromatography and solid phase extraction

Polysiloxanes immobilized onto the surfaces of porous silica particles have proven to be good stationary phases for the separation of multiresidues of pesticides and their metabolic/degradation products by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC). Similar materials have proven effective for pre-concentration and clean-up procedures using solid phase extraction. The present paper describes the preparation and some applications of several of these packing materials.     

Monitoring hydration state conversion by TG-DTA

Characterization of the solid-state form (hydrate or polymorph) of a pharmaceutical active is a key scientific and regulatory requirement during development of and prior to seeking approval for marketing of the drug product. A variety of analytical methods are available to perform this task. By nature of the fundamental information it provides, TG-DTA offers advantages over other methods in regards to monitoring and quantitation of hydration state changes. In a single experiment with only a few milligrams of sample, TG-DTA perceives minor changes in phase, quantitates total water content and percent conversion, and illustrates hydrate type. All of this is accomplished without the necessity of generating time-consuming standard curves representing the differing ratios of hydrated to anhydrous forms. This study describes the use of TG-DTA to monitor and quantitate humidity induced solid–solid phase conversion of nitrofurantoin and risedronate. Percent conversion was qualitatively observed by both TG and DTA signals and quantitated by the TG.     

Tobacco protein separation by aqueous two-phase extraction

Tobacco has long been considered as a host to produce large quantity of high-valued recombinant proteins. However, dealing with large quantities of biomass is a challenge for downstream processing. Aqueous two-phase extraction (ATPE) has been widely used in purifying proteins from various sources. It is a protein-friendly process and can be scaled up easily. In this paper, ATPE was studied for its applicability to recombinant protein purification from tobacco with egg white lysozyme as the model protein. Separate experiments with poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG)-salt-tobacco extract and PEG-salt-lysozyme were carried out to determine the partition behavior of tobacco protein and lysozyme, respectively. Two-level fractional factorial designs were used to study the effects of factors such as, PEG molecular mass, PEG concentration, the concentration of phase forming salt, sodium chloride concentration and pH, on protein partitioning. The results showed that, among the studied systems, PEG-sodium sulfate system was most suitable for lysozyme purification. Detailed experiments were conducted by spiking lysozyme into the tobacco extract. The conditions with highest selectivity of lysozyme over native tobacco protein were determined using a response surface design. The purification factor was further improved by decreasing the phase ratio along the tie line corresponding to the phase compositions with the highest selectivity. Under selected conditions the lysozyme yield was predicted to be 87% with a purification factor of 4 and concentration factor of 14. From this study, ATPE was shown to be suitable for initial protein recovery and partial purification from transgenic tobacco.