When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

Global expression analysis of CESA and CSL genes in Arabidopsis

We have used Affymetrix gene chips to measure the expression of 10 CESA and 29 CSL genes of Arabidopsis in different developmental stages or organs. These measurements reveal that many of the genes exhibit different levels of expression in the various organs. While several CESA genes are highly expressed in all the tissues examined, very few CSL genes approach such high levels of expression. This suggests that the CSL genes either encode enzymes for the synthesis of minor components of cell walls or are expressed only in specific cell types. The expression data also highlights the potential importance of the CESA genes for primary and secondary cell wall formation during different developmental stages and in the different organs examined.     

Seizure warning algorithm based on optimization and nonlinear dynamics

There is growing evidence that temporal lobe seizures are preceded by a preictal transition, characterized by a gradual dynamical change from asymptomatic interictal state to seizure. We herein report the first prospective analysis of the online automated algorithm for detecting the preictal transition in ongoing EEG signals. Such, the algorithm constitutes a seizure warning system. The algorithm estimates STL_max, a measure of the order or disorder of the signal, of EEG signals recorded from individual electrode sites. The optimization techniques were employed to select critical brain electrode sites that exhibit the preictal transition for the warning of epileptic seizures. Specifically, a quadratically constrained quadratic 0-1 programming problem is formulated to identify critical electrode sites. The automated seizure warning algorithm was tested in continuous, long-term EEG recordings obtained from 5 patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. For individual patient, we use the first half of seizures to train the parameter settings, which is evaluated by ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve analysis. With the best parameter setting, the algorithm applied to all cases predicted an average of 91.7% of seizures with an average false prediction rate of 0.196 per hour. These results indicate that it may be possible to develop automated seizure warning devices for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes.Mathematics Subject Classification (1991):20E28, 20G40, 20C20     

Visions: The coming revolutions in particle physics

We study the branching ratio, CP-violating asymmetry, forward-backward asymmetry and the CP-violating asymmetry in the forward-backward asymmetry for the exclusive decay B → Kτ⁺τ⁻ in the two Higgs doublet model with tree level flavor changing neutral currents (model III). We analyse the dependencies of these quantities on the neutral Higgs boson contributions and the CP parameter sinθ in the model III. We observe that to determine the neutral Higgs boson effects, the measurements of the forward-backward asymmetry and the CP-violating asymmetry in the forward-backward asymmetry for the decay B → Kτ⁺τ⁻ are promising.