寿命服从对数正态分布、有置信度时概率疲劳S-N曲线的合理重构

当概率疲劳S-N曲线以特定存活概率(P)和置信度(C)的方式给出并无法重做试验时,除特定P-C外无法做其它概率水平的可靠性分析.因此,需要广泛适用的曲线模型.建立了疲劳寿命服从对数正态分布时疲劳试验S-N数据及广义曲线的Monte Carlo模拟重构方法.为了避免现有人为放大样本到数千给出偏危险评价,从实际试验情况出发,采用了材料小试样每组样本7至20、结构试样每组样本至多10个、还原统计参量误差小于5%的模拟策略.然后,依据模拟数据利用回归法重建了可实现任意P-C水平可靠性分析的P-C-S-N曲线.铁路60Si2Mn高强度弹簧钢概率曲线的重构实践说明了方法的有效性与适用性.     

Reconstruction of probabilistic S-N curves under fatigue life following lognormal distribution with given confidence

When the historic probabilistic S-N curves are given under special survival probability and confidence levels and there is no possible to re-test, fatigue reliability analysis at other levels can not be done except for the special levels. Therefore, the wide applied curves are expected. Monte Carlo reconstruction methods of the test data and the curves are investigated under fatigue life following lognormal distribution. To overcome the non-conservative assessment of existent man-made enlarging the sample size up to thousands, a simulation policy is employed to address the true production where the sample size is controlled less than 20 for material specimens, 10 for structural component specimens and the errors matching the statistical parameters are less than 5 percent. Availability and feasibility of the present methods have been indicated by the reconstruction practice of the test data and curves for 60Si2Mn high strength spring steel of railway industry.