On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

On the Convenience to Form Coalitions or Partnerships in Simple Games

A partnership in a cooperative game is a coalition that possesses an internal structure and, simultaneously, behaves as an individual member. Forming partnerships leads to a modification of the original game which differs from the quotient game that arises when one or more coalitions are actually formed. In this paper, the Shapley value is used to discuss the convenience to form either coalitions or partnerships. To this end, the difference between the additive Shapley value of the partnership in the partnership game and the Shapley alliance value of the coalition, and also between the corresponding value of the internal and external players, are analysed. Simple games are especially considered. Research partially supported by Grant BFM 2003-01314 of the Science and Technology Spanish Ministry and the European Regional Development Fund.     

OPTIMAL INSTAR PARASITIZATION IN A STAGE STRUCTURED HOST-PARASITOID MODEL

A stage structured host-parasitoid model is derived and the equilibria studied. It is shown under what conditions the parasitoid controls an exponentially growing host in the sense that a coexistence equilibrium exists. Furthermore, for host populations whose inherent growth rate is not too large it is proved that in order to minimize the adult host equilibrium level it is necessary that the parasitoids attack only one of the larval stages. It is also proved in this case that the minimum adult host equilibrium level is attained when the parasitoids attack that larval stage which also maximizes the expected number of emerging adult parasitoid per larva at equilibrium. Numerical simulations tentatively indicate that the first conclusion remains in general valid for the model. However, numerical studies also show that it is not true in general that the optimal strategy will maximize the number of emerging adult parasitoid per larva at equilibrium.     

Increased Photosensitivity in HL60 Cells Expressing Wild-Type p53

Loss of p53 function has been correlated with decreased sensitivity to chemotherapy and radiation therapy in a variety of human tumors. Comparable analysis of p53 status with sensitivity to oxidative stress induced by pho-todynamic therapy has not been reported. In the current study we examined photosensitivity in human promye-locytic leukemia HL60 cells exhibiting either wild-type p53, mutated p53 or deleted p53 expression. Experiments were performed using a purpurin, tin ethyl etiopurpurin (SnET2)-, or a porphyrin, Photofrin (PH)-based photo-sensitizer. Total SnET2 accumulation was comparable in all three cell lines. Uptake of PH was highest in cells expressing wild-type p53 but incubation conditions could be adjusted to achieve equivalent cellular PH levels during experiments that analyzed photosensitivity. Survival measurements demonstrated that HL60 cells expressing wild-type p53 were more sensitive to PH- and SnET2-mediated photosensitization, as well as to UVC irradiation, when compared to HL60 cells exhibiting deleted or mutated p53 phenotypes. A rapid apoptotic response was observed following purpurin- and porphyrin-induced photosensitization in all cell lines. Results of this study indicate that photosensitivity is increased in HL60 cells expressing wild-type p53 and that photosensitizer-medi-ated oxidative stress can induce apoptosis through a p53-independent mechanism in HL60 cells .     

REASSESSMENT OF THE DIFFERENTIAL EFFECTS OF ULTRAVIOLET AND IONIZING RADIATION ON HIV PROMOTER: THE USE OF CELL SURVIVAL AS THE BASIS FOR COMPARISONS

Abstract: Effects of different radiation treatments on the human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV) promoter were reassessed for exposures comparable to those encountered in clinical or cosmetic practice, using survival of the host cell as a basis for comparisons. The exposures were performed with two ultraviolet radiation sources commonly used as medical or cosmetic devices (UVASUN 2000 and FS20 lamps), a germicidal (G15T8) lamp and an X-ray machine. The UVC component of the FS20 lamp was filtered out. The emission spectra of the lamps were determined. The characteristics of these sources allowed us to discriminate among effects of UVA1 (340–400 nm), UVB + UVA2 (280–340 nm) and UVC (254 nm) radiations. Effects of irradiation were ascertained using cultures of HeLa cells stably transfected with the HIV promoter linked to a reporter—chloramphenicol acetyl transferase—gene. The exposures used caused at least two logs of cell killing. In this cytotoxicity range, UVA1 or X radiations had no effect on the HIV promoter, whereas UVB + UVA2 or UVC radiations activated the HIV promoter in a fluence-dependent manner. Survivals following exposure to UVB + UVA2 or UVC radiation were (1) at the lowest measurable HIV promoter activation, 30 and 20%, respectively, (2) at one-half maximal activation, 6 and 3%, respectively and (3) at the maximal activation, 0.5 and 0.2%, respectively. The results suggest that, among the radiations studied, UVB is the most important modality from the viewpoint of its potential effects on HIV-infected individuals, since (1) UVA1 or X radiations have no effects on the HIV promoter, (2) human exposure to UVC radiation is infrequent and (3) human UVB exposure is very common.     

Novel fragmentation reaction of correolide

[reaction: see text] Pentacyclic triterpenoid natural product correolide (1) was converted to ketone 2 via ozonolysis. An unusual fragmentation reaction of ketone 2 with LiCl was discovered. This reaction is general among several similar substrates examined and appears to be specific for the correolide-type E-ring structure (ketone). A mechanism involving a retroaldol reaction, a nucleophilic opening of the epoxide, and a subsequent acetoxy elimination reaction was proposed.     

Facile synthesis of unsymmetrical benzotetrathiafulvalenes via cleavage of the corresponding hexathioorthooxalates

Unsymmetrical hexathioorthooxalates of types ($\text{1}$) and ($\text{2}$) undergo elimination of dialkyl disulfide on heating in an organic solvent; the reaction, which is catalyzed by acid, proceeds without fission of the central C:C bond and provides the first general, high yield synthesis of unsymmetrical benzotetrathiafulvalenes of types ($\text{3}$) and ($\text{4}$).