On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Hexaphyrin(1.0.1.0.0.0). A new colorimetric actinide sensor

Hexaphyrin(1.0.1.0.0.0) (isoamethyrin) undergoes a significant color change in the presence of UO₂²⁺, PuO₂²⁺, and NpO₂²⁺. The complexation of the first of these dioxo actinide cations was studied in semi-quantitative fashion in 1:1 MeOH-CH₂Cl₂. Under these conditions, the detection limit for UO₂²⁺ was found to be ca. 5.8 ppm by naked eye monitoring and <28 ppb by UV-vis spectroscopy. Isoamethyrin does not undergo a color change in the presence of most transition metals or when exposed to Gd(III). Isoamethyrin thus constitutes an attractive alternative to 2,2′(1,8-dihydroxy-3,6-disulfonaphthylene-2,7-bisazo)-bisbenzenarsonic acid (AzIII) and 2-(5-bromo-2-pyridylazo)-5-(diethylamino)phenol (BrPADAP), systems currently used as actinide cation sensors.     

Crosslinked polystyrene latexes prepared with 12-(o-styryloxy)dodecyltrimethylammonium bromide

Crosslinked polystyrene latexes with high surface charge densities have been prepared with 1, 3, and 5 mol% divinylbenzene and 0.5–5.0 mol% of 12-(o-styryloxy)dodecyltrimethylammonium bromide ( 1 ). Within experimental error all of surfactant 1 was incorporated into the particles. Analysis of the latex particles by transmission electron microscopy showed nonspherical shapes, aggregates, and number average diameters ranging from 22 to 95 nm. The particle size decreases and the polydispersity increases with increasing amounts of surfactant 1 and of divinylbenzene in the monomer mixture. A mechanism is proposed for particle formation by precipitation of crosslinked polymer from monomer droplets to form primary particles, coagulation of the primary particles to colloidally stable aggregates, and growth by further polymerization.     

OPTIMAL INSTAR PARASITIZATION IN A STAGE STRUCTURED HOST-PARASITOID MODEL

A stage structured host-parasitoid model is derived and the equilibria studied. It is shown under what conditions the parasitoid controls an exponentially growing host in the sense that a coexistence equilibrium exists. Furthermore, for host populations whose inherent growth rate is not too large it is proved that in order to minimize the adult host equilibrium level it is necessary that the parasitoids attack only one of the larval stages. It is also proved in this case that the minimum adult host equilibrium level is attained when the parasitoids attack that larval stage which also maximizes the expected number of emerging adult parasitoid per larva at equilibrium. Numerical simulations tentatively indicate that the first conclusion remains in general valid for the model. However, numerical studies also show that it is not true in general that the optimal strategy will maximize the number of emerging adult parasitoid per larva at equilibrium.     

Liquid crystalline hexa-amides and side chain polysiloxanes of azacrown [18]-N6

The hexa-4-dodecyloxybenzoyl derivative 1 of azacrown [18]-N₆ was originally reported to have a 'tubular' mesophase on the basis of its large central ring and 6-fold symmetry. Starting in the mesophase, annealing of 1 under a cover slip results in formation of a new crystalline phase that melts directly to an isotropic liquid at the temperature previously observed for the mesophase to isotropic transition. Thus the phase behaviour of 1 is kinetically controlled. The analogous hexa-3,4-bisdodecyloxybenzoyl derivative 2 of azacrown [18]-N₆ has no kinetic limitations to its phase changes and has an enantiotropic columnar liquid crystalline phase. We have synthesized side chain copolysiloxanes with a (CH₂)₁₁ spacer and 75-84 per cent by weight of the same 4-dodecyloxybenzoyl-[18]-N₆ mesogen. The polysiloxanes also display a liquid crystalline phase.     

Stress Tensor Fluctuations and Passive Quantum Gravity

The quantum fluctuations of the stress tensor of a quantum field are discussed, as are the resulting space-time metric fluctuations. Passive quantum gravity is an approximation in which gravity is not directly quantized, but fluctuations of the space-time geometry are driven by stress tensor fluctuations. We discuss a decomposition of the stress tensor correlation function into three parts, and consider the physical implications of each part. The operational significance of metric fluctuations and the possible limits of validity of semiclassical gravity are discussed.     

Increased Photosensitivity in HL60 Cells Expressing Wild-Type p53

Loss of p53 function has been correlated with decreased sensitivity to chemotherapy and radiation therapy in a variety of human tumors. Comparable analysis of p53 status with sensitivity to oxidative stress induced by pho-todynamic therapy has not been reported. In the current study we examined photosensitivity in human promye-locytic leukemia HL60 cells exhibiting either wild-type p53, mutated p53 or deleted p53 expression. Experiments were performed using a purpurin, tin ethyl etiopurpurin (SnET2)-, or a porphyrin, Photofrin (PH)-based photo-sensitizer. Total SnET2 accumulation was comparable in all three cell lines. Uptake of PH was highest in cells expressing wild-type p53 but incubation conditions could be adjusted to achieve equivalent cellular PH levels during experiments that analyzed photosensitivity. Survival measurements demonstrated that HL60 cells expressing wild-type p53 were more sensitive to PH- and SnET2-mediated photosensitization, as well as to UVC irradiation, when compared to HL60 cells exhibiting deleted or mutated p53 phenotypes. A rapid apoptotic response was observed following purpurin- and porphyrin-induced photosensitization in all cell lines. Results of this study indicate that photosensitivity is increased in HL60 cells expressing wild-type p53 and that photosensitizer-medi-ated oxidative stress can induce apoptosis through a p53-independent mechanism in HL60 cells .