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Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naïve and other techniques. 相似文献
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MM. J. Duflos D. Letouz G. Queguiner P. Pastour 《Journal of heterocyclic chemistry》1973,10(6):1083-1084
This communication describes the synthesis of l-methyl-2,3-diformylpyrrole. This new compound is used to prepare a new heterocycle, l-methylcyclohepta[b]pyrrol-6-one and thus allows a new synthesis of l-methylpyrrolo[2,3-d]pyridazine. 相似文献
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del Mar Conejo M Fernández R del Río D Carmona E Monge A Ruiz C Márquez AM Sanz JF 《Chemistry (Weinheim an der Bergstrasse, Germany)》2003,9(18):4452-4461
The beryllocenes [Be(C(5)Me(4)H)(2)] (1), [Be(C(5)Me(5))(2)] (2), and [Be(C(5)Me(5))(C(5)Me(4)H)] (3) have been prepared from BeCl(2) and the appropriate KCp' reagent in toluene/diethyl ether solvent mixtures. The synthesis of 1 is facile (20 degrees C, overnight), but generation of decamethylberyllocene 2 demands high temperatures (ca. 115 degrees C) and extended reaction times (3-4 days). The mixed-ring beryllocene 3 is obtained when the known [(eta(5)-C(5)Me(5))BeCl] is allowed to react with K[C(5)Me(4)H], once more under somewhat forcing conditions (115 degrees C, 36 h). The structures of the three metallocenes have been determined by low-temperature X-ray studies. Both 1 and 3 present eta5/eta1 geometries of the slip-sandwich type, whereas 2 exhibits an almost regular, ferrocene-like, sandwich structure. In the mixed-ring compound 3, C(5)Me(5) is centrally bound to beryllium and the eta(1)-C(5)Me(4)H ring bonds to the metal through the unique CH carbon atom. This is also the binding mode of the eta(1)-ring of 1. To analyze the nature of the bonding in these molecules, theoretical calculations at different levels of theory have been performed on compounds 2 and 3, and a comparison with the bonding in [Be(C(5)H(5))(2)] has been made. As for the latter molecule, energy differences between the eta5/eta5 and the eta5/eta1 structures of 2 are very small, being of the order of a few kcal mol(-1). Constrained space orbital variations (CSOV) calculations show that the covalent character in the bonding is larger for [Be(C(5)Me(5))(2)] than for [Be(C(5)H(5))(2)] due to larger charge delocalization and to increased polarizability of the C(5)Me(5) fragment. 相似文献
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MM. P. Duballet A. Godard G. Queguiner P. Pastour 《Journal of heterocyclic chemistry》1973,10(6):1079-1080
This article describes the synthesis of a new heterocycle, pyrido[2,3,f]phtalazine and three new diformylquinolincs. 相似文献
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The synthesis of two new heterocycles is described: pyrido-[2,3-d]-.s-triazolo[ 3,4-f] pyrimidine and pyrido[3,2-d]-.s-triayzolo-[3,4-f] pyrimidine. 4-[I'-Pyrazolyl]pyrido[2,3-d]pyrimidines and 4-[1′-pyrazoly1] pyrido[ 3,2-d] pyrimidine are obtained by the action of 4-hydrazinopyrido[2,3-d]pyrimidine and 4-hydrazinopyrido-[3,2-d]pyrimidine with several β-diketones. 相似文献
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Background
Several studies have shown that Stroop interference is stronger in children than in adults. However, in a standard Stroop paradigm, stimulus interference and response interference are confounded. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether interference at the stimulus level and the response level are subject to distinct maturational patterns across childhood. Three groups of children (6–7 year-olds, 8–9 year-olds, and 10–12 year-olds) and a group of adults performed a manual Color-Object Stroop designed to disentangle stimulus interference and response interference. This was accomplished by comparing three trial types. In congruent (C) trials there was no interference. In stimulus incongruent (SI) trials there was only stimulus interference. In response incongruent (RI) trials there was stimulus interference and response interference. Stimulus interference and response interference were measured by a comparison of SI with C, and RI with SI trials, respectively. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were measured to study the temporal dynamics of these processes of interference.Results
There was no behavioral evidence for stimulus interference in any of the groups, but in 6–7 year-old children ERPs in the SI condition in comparison with the C condition showed an occipital P1-reduction (80–140 ms) and a widely distributed amplitude enhancement of a negative component followed by an amplitude reduction of a positive component (400–560 ms). For response interference, all groups showed a comparable reaction time (RT) delay, but children made more errors than adults. ERPs in the RI condition in comparison with the SI condition showed an amplitude reduction of a positive component over lateral parietal (-occipital) sites in 10–12 year-olds and adults (300–540 ms), and a widely distributed amplitude enhancement of a positive component in all age groups (680–960 ms). The size of the enhancement correlated positively with the RT response interference effect.Conclusion
Although processes of stimulus interference control as measured with the color-object Stroop task seem to reach mature levels relatively early in childhood (6–7 years), development of response interference control appears to continue into late adolescence as 10–12 year-olds were still more susceptible to errors of response interference than adults. 相似文献10.
A J Conejo F J Nogales M Carrión J M Morales 《The Journal of the Operational Research Society》2010,61(2):235-245
Organized trading for electricity includes both the pool and the futures market. Pool prices are volatile while the prices of the futures-market products are comparatively more stable. Thus, futures-market products constitute hedging instruments to reduce the risk suffered by any market agent. Electricity market agents engage in both pool and futures market transactions seeking to maximize their respective profits/utilities for a given risk level on profit variability. To make informed decisions, the market agent must gather as much accurate information as possible on the pool prices covering the whole time horizon spanned by the futures-market product. This paper provides a novel technique to represent conveniently the uncertainty associated with pool prices during long- or medium-term horizons through a set of scenarios, that is, pool price realizations. The proposed technique uses the prices of the futures-market products as long-term explanatory variables and exploits the short-term structure of the pool prices. 相似文献