马歇尔-勒纳条件的实证研究

本文从人民币实际汇率变动是否会对我国贸易收支产生影响出发，基于马歇尔．勒纳条件，对计算贸易弹性常用的OLS回归模型进行了改进，建立了向量自回归误差修正模型来估算我国的国际贸易弹性。实证研究表明：我国进出口需求的价格弹性之和大于1。因此人民币贬值可改善贸易收支；反之升值将使贸易收支恶化。     

电力市场中合同电量与竞争电量交易比例的研究

在单边开放的区域电力市场中,合理的合同电量与竞争电量交易比例是保证电力市场有效运行的一个重要环节。竞争电量所占的比例将主要取决于当前发电公司的市场行为。首先使用BP神经网络对电力需求弹性系数进行了预测,然后以长期电力市场均衡为目标函数,考虑贵州电网发电机组的可用容量与负荷预测的误差,以及贵州输电线路的可靠性诸因素,推导出合同电量与竞争电量交易比例,经过与南方区域电力市场目前运营规则规定的交易比例比较,该比例是合理的,可以规避电力市场价格波动等带来的风险。     

Characterization of SiO2-P2O5-ZrO2 Sol-Gel/NAFION™ Composite Membranes

Composite membranes were prepared by (a) infiltrating NAFION with SiO₂-P₂O₅-ZrO₂ sol, and (b) recasting a film using NAFION solution containing SiO₂-P₂O₅-ZrO₂ sol. The membranes were characterized by Differential Thermal Analysis and ac-impedance spectroscopy as a function of relative humidity. The influences of the heat treatment (80°C–150°C) and cleaning on the electrical properties were investigated. The incorporation of SiO₂-P₂O₅-ZrO₂ gels into NAFION lead to improvements in its thermal stability and proton conductivity.     

气相色谱-质谱法分析土壤中神经性毒剂及糜烂性毒剂

建立了土壤中神经性毒剂及糜烂性毒剂GC—MS-SIM分析法，对土壤中6种毒剂的样品制备和二步萃取方法进行了研究；该法的回收率在80．7％～89．5％，6种毒剂在0．5～10mg/L范围内毒剂质量浓度和峰面积有良好的线性相关，方法检出限为4～20ng／g，该法适用于痕量化学战剂分析。     

Optimization of spiroimidazolidinone derivatives synthesis on solid phase using SynPhase™ Lanterns

We report the synthesis of 1,4,8-triazaspiro[4.5]decan-2-one derivatives from N-benzyl-4-piperidone and N-protected amino acid amides on solid support. We have translated the chemistry from solution to solid phase using a backbone amide linker (BAL) mimic. Using a parallel combinatorial approach, we performed the optimization of the synthesis on SynPhase™ Lanterns.     

The impact of environmental regulations on forest product trade in China

Forest product trade plays an important role in the development of the Chinese forest industry. The trading value of forest product has shown a yearly growth rate of 12% during the last five recent years. Stringent environmental regulations in China have a profound impact on raw material supplies and industrial production in the forest sector; however, their impact on the forest product trade is still unclear. This study applies fixed and random effects models as well as a seemingly unrelated regression model to investigate the impact of environmental regulations on the trade of forest product from 2002 to 2015. The results indicate that the stringent environmental regulations promoted the import but restricted the export of forest product in general. Specifically, the stringent environmental regulations stimulated the import but had an ambiguous impact on the export of the paper product. The stringent environmental regulations had also stimulated the import of wood product but inhibited the export. In contrast, wooden furniture had been affected minimally; only export got slightly negatively affected by environmental regulations. Recommendations for resource managers:

• Trade‐offs between economic growth and environmental regulations are needed to smoothly promote the forest product trade in China.
• Paper and wooden furniture product sectors are less likely to be affected by stringent environmental regulations, because high value‐added products could compensate for environmental costs.
• The wood product sector is more likely to be negatively affected by stringent environmental regulations because environmental costs could severely impact the competitiveness of low value‐added products.

     

Magtrieve™ (CrO2) and MnO2 mediated oxidation of aldoximes: studying the reaction course

Magtrieve™ (CrO₂) and MnO₂ mediated oxidation of aldoximes to nitrile oxides were studied in details. In presence of external radical source, TEMPO, these reagents did not furnish nitrile oxides, instead favoured deoximation to aldehydes. A common trend of deoximation was established from electronically tuned aldoximes, which is: aliphatic>aromatic>aldoximes with strong electron-withdrawing group, though the extent of deoximation was less in case of CrO₂. Above effects were not observed with chloramine-T and diacetoxyiodobenzene, reagents known to produce nitrile oxides via hydroximoyl halide or equivalent ionic intermediates. A putative reaction mechanism is proposed for MO₂ (M=Cr, Mn) mediated oxidation of aldoximes through formation of a nitroso-oxime tautomeric pair. Formation of nitrile oxide is possibly occurred from the oxime tautomer via a σ-type iminoxy radical intermediate. The deoximation process, dominating in presence of external radical environment, is explained following decomposition of the nitroso tautomer.     

基于滤波技术的首都旅游贸易发展趋势与周期研究

运用HP滤波技术,实证拟合了首都旅游贸易的发展趋势和周期.在对时间序列分离出趋势和周期之后,采用多项式拟合给出了趋势值的经验回归表达式,在此基础上,分析了剔除趋势后的贸易周期特征.研究表明,改革开放的前10年,首都旅游贸易的出口周期性表现并不明显;之后至今的20年,则呈现显著周期特征,周期长度大约5-7年,但这种周期变化也不具有稳定性.对比我国经济发展历程,首都旅游贸易出口周期与宏观经济增长周期高度一致,显示出其对宏观经济发展具有高度敏感性,因此必须重视宏观经济减速给首都旅游贸易带来的衰退影响.另外,重大事件对首都旅游贸易的影响也不容忽视.     

中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究:基于对北美自贸区、欧盟、东盟投资的比较分析

中国对外贸易发展成熟、国际地位显著,但从长期看,其边际收益呈现递减趋势.而对外直接投资虽规模较小,且尚在起步阶段,但其发展速度快、市场潜力巨大.在拓展Anderson和Wincoop模型基础上,理论分析了对外直接投资与贸易之间的关系.然后通过建立计量模型,利用1995-2011年面板数据进行固定模型分析.由于中国对外直接投资的贸易效应存在明显的区域性,以北美自贸区、欧盟和东盟作为研究对象,实证检验了中国对外直接投资与贸易的关系,旨在考察中国对三种不同类型区域一体化组织投资的贸易效应差异.研究结果表明,从长期看,中国对北美自由贸易区、欧盟和东盟投资均具有明显的贸易创造效应.这种贸易创造效应的大小依次是东盟欧盟北美自贸区.     

Regiocontrolled fluorination of 2-hydroxyalkyl dihydropyrans and carbonyl derivatives

Reaction of polysubstituted 2-hydroxyalkyldihydropyrans with DAST led regiospecifically to fluorination at the exocyclic position, except for primary alcohols. Difluorination of carbonylated analogues with deoxo-fluor™ occurred also regioselectively. The unexpected stability and synthetic potential of these new allylic fluorides are discussed.