基于“藤”结构的高维动态Copula的构建

高维化和动态化是当前Copula理论研究和应用的两个重要方向.采用图形建模工具中"藤"的层叠结构,以二元动态Copula取代原有二元静态Copula作为"藤"的节点,将高维Copula建模中"藤"的方法与动态Copula相结合,构造了"动态藤Copula".实证表明,高维动态藤Copula较相应的高维静态藤Copula对数据的概率模型的似然率更高.     

Asymptotic Results for the Sum of Dependent Non-identically Distributed Random Variables

In this paper we extend some results about the probability that the sum of n dependent subexponential random variables exceeds a given threshold u. In particular, the case of non-identically distributed and not necessarily positive random variables is investigated. Furthermore we establish criteria how far the tail of the marginal distribution of an individual summand may deviate from the others so that it still influences the asymptotic behavior of the sum. Finally we explicitly construct a dependence structure for which, even for regularly varying marginal distributions, no asymptotic limit of the tail of the sum exists. Some explicit calculations for diagonal copulas and t-copulas are given. Dominik Kortschak was supported by the Austrian Science Fund Project P18392.     

具有随机扰动和多重变时滞的神经网络稳定性分析

考虑了一个具有多重时变时滞的随机神经网络的全局渐近稳定性问题.通过构造Lyapunov-Krasovskii函数并运用广义Ito公式,得到了一个充分条件,条件保证了神经网络在随机扰动下的全局均方渐近稳定性.最后通过一个数值实例验证了结果的有效性.     

Sufficient conditions of the various stabilities of the linear time-varying delayed differential equations

Due to the appearance and the study of the ornithopter and flexible-wing micro air vehicles, etc., the time-varying systems become more and more important and ubiquitous in the study of the mechanics. In this letter, the sufficient conditions of the uniform asymptotic stability are first presented for the delayed time-varying linear differential equations with any time delay by employing the Dini derivative, Lozinskii measure and the generalized scalar Halanay delayed differential inequality. They are especially based on the estimation of the arbitrary solutions but not the fundamental solution matrix since their solutions' space is infinite-dimensional. Then some sufficient conditions of the stability, asymptotic stability and uniform asymptotic stability of the delayed time-varying linear system with a sufficiently small time delay are reported by employing Taylor expansion and Dini derivative. It implies that these stabilities can be guaranteed by the Lozinskii measure of the matrix composing of the time delay and the coefficient matrices of the system.     

MEXIT: Maximal un-coupling times for stochastic processes

Classical coupling constructions arrange for copies of the same Markov process started at two different initial states to become equal as soon as possible. In this paper, we consider an alternative coupling framework in which one seeks to arrange for two different Markov (or other stochastic) processes to remain equal for as long as possible, when started in the same state. We refer to this “un-coupling” or “maximal agreement” construction as MEXIT, standing for “maximal exit”. After highlighting the importance of un-coupling arguments in a few key statistical and probabilistic settings, we develop an explicit MEXIT construction for stochastic processes in discrete time with countable state-space. This construction is generalized to random processes on general state-space running in continuous time, and then exemplified by discussion of MEXIT for Brownian motions with two different constant drifts.     

Synchronization of Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy stochastic discrete-time complex networks with mixed time-varying delays

In this paper, we propose and investigate a new general model of fuzzy stochastic discrete-time complex networks (SDCNs) described by Takagi–Sugeno (T–S) fuzzy model with discrete and distributed time-varying delays. The proposed model takes some well-studied models as special cases. By employing a new Lyapunov functional candidate, we utilize some stochastic analysis techniques and Kronecker product to deduce delay-dependent synchronization criteria that ensure the mean-square synchronization of the proposed T–S fuzzy SDCNs with mixed time-varying delays. These sufficient conditions are computationally efficient as it can be solved numerically by the LMI toolbox in Matlab. A numerical simulation example is provided to verify the effectiveness and the applicability of the proposed approach.     

Precise bounds for the petersen time-varying real parameter uncertainty system stabilized via linear static controllers

Using a class of linear static controllers, we stabilize the Petersen open-loop two-dimensional linear system (Ref. 1), which consists of one time-varying uncertainty in the state matrixA and one timevarying uncertainty in the input matrixB. We show that the worst-case uncertainty strategy for the closed-loop system is a piecewise constant strategy of the angular state with three switches on the half-turn, –/2/2; it is unique with respect to a set of measure zero. Formulas are derived for the worst-case half-turn radius gainr _HT as a function of the parameters of the class of stabilizing linear static controllers. Using the class of scalar-quadratic Lyapunov functions, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for the closed-loop system to be robustly stable against all time-varying admissible uncertainties is thatr _HT be less than unity. The bound on the time-varying real parameter uncertainties for the closed-loop system to be robustly stable is derived for the class of linear static feedback controllers. We obtain stabilizing linear static controllers such that the bound is as close to infinity as desired. The derived results are compared with numerical results obtained using commerical robust-control software.     

Modelling Operational Risk Losses with Graphical Models and Copula Functions

The management of Operational Risk has been a difficult task due to the lack of data and the high number of variables. In this project, we treat operational risks as multivariate variables. In order to model them, copula functions are employed, which are a widely used tool in finance and engineering for building flexible joint distributions. The purpose of this research is to propose a new methodology for modelling Operational Risks and estimating the required capital. It combines the use of graphical models and the use of copula functions along with hyper-Markov law. Historical loss data of an Italian bank is used, in order to explore the methodology’s behaviour and its potential benefits.      

Tracking problem under a time-varying topology

This paper studies the multi-agent tracking problem of a third-order maneuvering target under uncertain communication environments. Each tracking agent is assumed to be a third-order system and can only use its own and neighbors＇ position, velocity, and acceleration information to design its control input. In this work, the uncertain communication environments are modelled by a finite number of constant Laplacian matrices together with their corresponding scheduling functions. Sufficient conditions for the existence of a tracking strategy have been expressed in terms of the solvability of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, a numerical example is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed tracking strategy.