基于时变Copula模型的 基金收益率相依关系的应用研究

基于时变Copula模型,获得预测方差,确定单个基金收益率序列的边缘分布.利用常见的静态Copula和时变Copula模型对基金收益率序列间两两相依关系进行建模并进行对比分析.应用研究表明,基于MCMC方法的时变Copula模型能更有效地度量基金收益率序列的风险.     

Sampling Consensus of 2nd-Order Multi-Agent Systems Based on Time-Varying Topology北大核心CSCD

基于速度一致位移差保持不变的一致性概念,研究了二阶多智能体系统在时变拓扑下的采样一致性问题。首先,引入虚拟领导者,将具有时变拓扑结构的多智能体系统的采样一致性问题转换为误差系统的采样控制稳定性问题。其次,通过预估采样误差,研究采样误差对系统达到一致性的影响。最后,应用Lyapunov稳定性理论,分析所构造的误差系统的稳定性,并给出该误差系统最终稳定的充分条件。数值仿真结果验证了理论分析的有效性和正确性。     

Exponential stability of discrete-time systems with slowly time-varying delays

Slowly time-varying delays are seldom, but do need to be, considered in the context of discrete-time systems. This paper addresses the exponential stability issue of discrete-time systems with slowly time-varying delays. The basic idea is to transform, by utilizing the switching transformation approach, the original system with slowly time-varying delays into an equivalent switched system with special switching signal. Different types of delays correspond to different types of switching signals, and the stability issue of the original system is converted into that of a switched system. It is the first time that the method of switched homogeneous polynomial Lyapunov function is applied to general delayed systems. Some sufficient exponential stability conditions for the original system are proposed in several situations. It is numerically shown that the conservativeness of the proposed conditions reduces as the degree of the switched homogeneous polynomial Lyapunov function increases.     

Precise bounds for the petersen time-varying real parameter uncertainty system stabilized via linear static controllers

Using a class of linear static controllers, we stabilize the Petersen open-loop two-dimensional linear system (Ref. 1), which consists of one time-varying uncertainty in the state matrixA and one timevarying uncertainty in the input matrixB. We show that the worst-case uncertainty strategy for the closed-loop system is a piecewise constant strategy of the angular state with three switches on the half-turn, –/2/2; it is unique with respect to a set of measure zero. Formulas are derived for the worst-case half-turn radius gainr _HT as a function of the parameters of the class of stabilizing linear static controllers. Using the class of scalar-quadratic Lyapunov functions, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for the closed-loop system to be robustly stable against all time-varying admissible uncertainties is thatr _HT be less than unity. The bound on the time-varying real parameter uncertainties for the closed-loop system to be robustly stable is derived for the class of linear static feedback controllers. We obtain stabilizing linear static controllers such that the bound is as close to infinity as desired. The derived results are compared with numerical results obtained using commerical robust-control software.     

An optimal co-reinsurance strategy

This article considers a co-reinsurance strategy that (1) protects insurance companies against catastrophic risks; (2) enables insurers to gather sufficient information about the different risk attitudes of reinsurers and diversify their reinsured risks; (3) enables insurers to create better risk-sharing profiles by balancing the risk tolerances of reinsurers; (4) has the benefit of allowing reinsurers to accumulate experience with risks with which they are unfamiliar; (5) reduces the overall direct cost of a reinsurance contract; (6) allows a government to back some insurance products, such as the terrorism insurance programs that were established in many countries after the September 11th terrorist attacks; and (7) reflects the practical reinsurance industry of some countries, such as Iran. Such a co-reinsurance strategy can be fully determined by estimating its parameters whenever three optimal criteria are satisfied and prior information about the unknown parameters is available. Two simulation-based studies have been conducted to demonstrate (1) the practical applications of our findings and (2) the possible impact of any type of dependency between the co-reinsurance’s parameters and the evaluated optimal co-reinsurance strategy.     

Modeling partial Greeks of variable annuities with dependence

Dynamic hedging used to mitigate the financial risks associated with large portfolios of variable annuities requires calculating partial dollar deltas on major market indices. Metamodeling approaches have been proposed in the past few years to address the computational issues related to the calculation of partial dollar deltas. In this paper, we investigate whether the additional complication of modeling the dependence between the partial dollar deltas improves the accuracy of the metamodeling approaches. We use several copulas to model the dependence structures of the partial dollar deltas and conduct numerical experiments to compare different metamodels. Despite the evidence of strong dependence in the estimated models, our numerical results show that modeling the dependence structures in the metamodels does not improve the accuracy of the estimations at the portfolio level. This is because the dependence between the partial dollar deltas is well captured by the covariates used in the marginal models. This finding suggests that we should focus more on marginal models than specifying the dependence structure explicitly.     

Delay-dependent exponential stabilization for uncertain linear systems with interval non-differentiable time-varying delays

In this paper, the problem of exponential stabilization for a class of linear systems with time-varying delay is studied. The time delay is a continuous function belonging to a given interval, which means that the lower and upper bounds for the time-varying delay are available, but the delay function is not necessary to be differentiable. Based on the construction of improved Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals combined with Leibniz-Newton’s formula, new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the exponential stabilization of the systems are first established in terms of LMIs. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate that the derived conditions are much less conservative than those given in the literature.