航线优化的随机动态规划模型

航空公司在给定的运力和机队配置条件下,如何适应航线需求的不断变化而合理地分配运力,使航空公司的经营效益最大化是我国航空经营管理的一个重大课题.根据航班效益分析,在一定的经营时间,航行班次的条件下,建立一个航线贡献最大化的含有随机变量的动态规划模型.求解方法是先用M ON TE C ARLO方法计算机仿真把模型转化为非线性的整数规划.再用动态规划中资源分配算法求出模型的最优解,编排最优各航线规划.     

Chapter 15 DEA/AR analysis of the 1988–1989 performance of the Nanjing textiles corporation

This article employs new data envelopment analysis/assurance region (DEA/AR) methods to evaluate the efficiency of the 35 textile factories of the Nanjing Textiles Corporation (NTC), Nanjing, China. The returns to scale (RTS) of these factories were studied without assuming that the optimal DEA solutions were unique. All DMUs are identified with pointsE (Extreme Efficient),E (Efficient but not an extreme point) andF (Frontier but not efficient). We then further identify the nonfrontier DMUs with pointsNE, NE andNF according to whether they are projected onto a point inE, E, orF en route to evaluating their performances. All of the inefficient factories were in classNF and had unique optimal primal-dual solution pairs. Consequently, the solution pairs satisfy the strong complementary slackness condition (SCSC). Application of cone-ratio (CR) ARs reduced significantly the number of factories in classE, and showed that some AR-efficient factories were more flexible in adopting the mixture of central planning and market economies that China currently is trying to use. Also, linked-cone (LC) ARs were applied to measure maximum and minimum profit ratios. The SCSC multiplier space approach was utilized to analyze the sensitivity of the efficiency results to potential errors in the data with and without ARs. The results in this article suggest that collective units had a better performance than state-owned units in the two consecutive years analyzed.This paper was written while the author was at the School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210018, P.R. China.     

产品开发决策的灵敏性分析

文章着重研究了市场需求服从正态分布时参数估计误差变化对产品开发决策正确性的影响。通过实例分析，得到了处理这类问题的方法。文章进而给出了需求为有限方差与数学期望的一般随机量的处理方法，还给出了对Poisson变量的分析公式。     

Holding costs under push or pull conditions - The impact of the Anchor Point

Holding costs are traditionally determined from the investment in physical stock during a cycle. An alternative approach instead derives holding costs from Net Present Value (NPV) functions. It is known that applying both frameworks to the same system can lead to different holding cost valuations, but little explanation has been offered. By introducing the Anchor Point in a model, this paper shows, for four different systems, that traditional holding cost models (implicitly) assume pull conditions, while current NPV approaches model push conditions. This explains in part the differences between the methods. It is shown that the Anchor Point concept allows the construction of NPV models under pull conditions, giving results in better correspondence with traditional models. The traditional framework is restricted to pull conditions and important considerations could be easily overlooked, leading to wrong valuations of holding costs. NPV seems superior as such considerations are automatically incorporated. The application to multi-echelon inventory systems provides interesting insights on the roles of echelon stocks and lead-times, and offers potential for future research.     

Sensitivity analysis of the moments of the profit on an Income Protection Policy

The main purpose of this paper is to perform a sensitivity analysis where we quantify and analyse the effects on the mean of the profit on an Income Protection policy and two risk measures of changing the values of the transition intensities. All the calculations carried out are based on a multiple state model for Income Protection proposed in Continuous Mortality Investigation Committee (Continuous Mortality Investigation Reports 1991; 12 ). Within this model, we derive a formula for the mean of the profit, which enables to evaluate it more efficiently. In order to calculate the two risk measures we use the numerical algorithms for the calculation of the moments of the profit proposed by Waters (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 1990; 9 :101–113). We carry out the sensitivity analysis considering two different situations: in the first situation, we update the premium rates used to calculate the moments of the profit, according to the changes in the values of the transition intensities; in the second one, we do not update the premium rates. Both analyses are of practical interest to insurance companies selling Income Protection policies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial competition facility location models: Definition,formulation and solution approach

Models are presented for locating a firm's production facilities and determining production levels at these facilities so as to maximize the firm's profit. These models take into account the changes in price at each of the spatially separated markets that would result from the increase in supply provided by the new facilities and also from the response of competing firms. Two different models of spatial competition are presented to represent the competitive market situation in which the firm's production facilities are being located. These models are formulated as variational inequalities; recent sensitivity analysis results for variational inequalities are used to develop derivatives of the prices at each of the spatially separated markets with respect to the production levels at each of the new facilities. These derivatives are used to develop a linear approximation of the implicit function relating prices to productions. A heuristic solution procedure making use of this approximation is proposed.     

Fuzzy profit measures for a fuzzy economic order quantity model

Changing economic conditions make the selling price and demand quantity more and more uncertain in the market. The conventional inventory models determine the selling price and order quantity for a retailer’s maximal profit with exactly known parameters. This paper develops a solution method to derive the fuzzy profit of the inventory model when the demand quantity and unit cost are fuzzy numbers. Since the parameters contained in the inventory model are fuzzy, the profit value calculated from the model should be fuzzy as well. Based on the extension principle, the fuzzy inventory problem is transformed into a pair of two-level mathematical programs to derive the upper bound and lower bound of the fuzzy profit at possibility level α. According to the duality theorem of geometric programming, the pair of two-level mathematical programs is transformed into a pair of conventional geometric programs to solve. By enumerating different α values, the upper bound and lower bound of the fuzzy profit are collected to approximate the membership function. Since the profit of the inventory problem is expressed by the membership function rather than by a crisp value, more information is provided for making decisions.     

修理工单重定期休假可修系统更换模型研究

针对修理工带有单重休假的单部件可修系统,提出了一种新的维修更换模型.假定系统是可修的,逐次故障后的维修时间构成随机递增的几何过程,系统工作时间构成随机递增的几何过程,在修理工休假时间为定长的情况下,分别选取系统的总工作时间T和故障维修次数N为更换策略,以长期运行单位时间内的期望效益为目标函数,通过更新过程和几何过程理论建立数学模型,导出了目标函数的解析表达式,通过最大化目标函数来获取系统最优的更换策略T*和N*.并在一定条件下给出了策略N比策略T优的充分条件.最后,通过数值例子验证了方法的有效性.     

马尔可夫链及其在股市分析中的应用

本文运用马尔可夫链理论预测股票价格分析股市,提出了股价运行周期和投资收益的最大化理论,并建立其随机过程模型,使决策的长期效益趋于最优,通过实例检验,证明了此模型的可行性和实用性.     

Metric Distance Function and Profit: Some Duality Results

In this paper, we intend to establish relations between the way efficiency is measured in the literature on efficiency analysis and the notion of distance in topology. To this effect, we are interested particularly in the Hölder norm concept, providing a duality result based upon the profit function. Along this line, we prove that the Luenberger shortage function and the directional distance function of Chambers, Chung, and Färe appear as special cases of some l _p distance (also called Hölder distance), under the assumption that the production set is convex. Under a weaker assumption (convexity of the input correspondence), we derive a duality result based on the cost function, providing several examples in which the functional form of the production set is specified.