河南省城市居民消费结构比较研究

本文主要应用聚类分析方法 ,对河南省 17个地市级城市居民的消费结构进行了比较统计分析 ,从而得到了各城市居民消费结构的一些特点和规律 ,并进一步探讨了其消费结构、可支配收入与总消费支出之间的关系     

Sensitivity analysis of the moments of the profit on an Income Protection Policy

The main purpose of this paper is to perform a sensitivity analysis where we quantify and analyse the effects on the mean of the profit on an Income Protection policy and two risk measures of changing the values of the transition intensities. All the calculations carried out are based on a multiple state model for Income Protection proposed in Continuous Mortality Investigation Committee (Continuous Mortality Investigation Reports 1991; 12 ). Within this model, we derive a formula for the mean of the profit, which enables to evaluate it more efficiently. In order to calculate the two risk measures we use the numerical algorithms for the calculation of the moments of the profit proposed by Waters (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 1990; 9 :101–113). We carry out the sensitivity analysis considering two different situations: in the first situation, we update the premium rates used to calculate the moments of the profit, according to the changes in the values of the transition intensities; in the second one, we do not update the premium rates. Both analyses are of practical interest to insurance companies selling Income Protection policies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model of peasant labor in China

Nowadays in the rural areas of China, peasants can make their own choices to go to the city for a new job or stay in the rural area. A decision is made based on working ability and the information a peasant gets. A multivariate evolutionary model of this problem is established and the numerical simulation shows that going to the city brings about a rise in the peasants’ income, and also that such a rise, as well as the number of peasants going to the city, is influenced by the capacity of the cities and income gap between agricultural and non-agricultural industries.     

Valuation of guaranteed annuity options using a stochastic volatility model for equity prices

Guaranteed annuity options are options providing the right to convert a policyholder’s accumulated funds to a life annuity at a fixed rate when the policy matures. These options were a common feature in UK retirement savings contracts issued in the 1970’s and 1980’s when interest rates were high, but caused problems for insurers as the interest rates began to fall in the 1990’s. Currently, these options are frequently sold in the US and Japan as part of variable annuity products. The last decade the literature on pricing and risk management of these options evolved. Until now, for pricing these options generally a geometric Brownian motion for equity prices is assumed. However, given the long maturities of the insurance contracts a stochastic volatility model for equity prices would be more suitable. In this paper explicit expressions are derived for prices of guaranteed annuity options assuming stochastic volatility for equity prices and either a 1-factor or 2-factor Gaussian interest rate model. The results indicate that the impact of ignoring stochastic volatility can be significant.     

中国农民收入水平、受教育程度及其社会地位的实证研究

“三农”问题是我国相当长阶段内的社会问题,而所有的问题中最突出的是人的问题,即农民问题。本文主要通过四个部分对中国农民的收入水平、受教育程度及其社会地位进行了实证研究。在找出各种影响因素之后,通过建立经济学模型深入研究各个因素对农民收入水平、受教育程度的贡献大小,进而分析了农民社会地位的影响因素,最后对所得结论逐一分析探讨,提出了解决农民问题的一些途径。     

Estimating income mobility using census data

This study uses the entropy method to overcome the problem with estimating income distribution dynamics in the absence of data that allow identifying and following up economic units over time. The axiomatic mobility approach (Shorrocks, 1976) [1] and the tools developed by Aebi et al. (1999) [2] were considered. This strategy assumes that income mobility between two time periods is governed by a first-order Markov process. In this context, the measurement of the dynamics of income distribution will be equivalent to fitting cell probabilities for contingency tables, where only marginal distributions are observed. Results suggest that Brazil has low intragenerational income mobility, indicating that its social framework is relatively rigid. In other words, the income class in which an individual is inserted will determine his/her future social position.     

上海市国际服务贸易收入和支出的统计分析

本文通过因子分析将指标进行分类,对2000-2007年上海市国际服务贸易收入和支出的数据进行统计分析。同时,通过回归分析从理论上提出对国际服务贸易收入和支出的预报和控制方法。最后对文章中提到的模型进行使用说明,并提出对上海市国际服务贸易发展的一些建议。     

About the modified Gaussian family of income distributions with applications to individual incomes

In a recent paper in this journal [Q. Guo, L. Gao, Distribution of individual incomes in China between 1992 and 2009, Physica A 391 (2012) 5139–5145], a new family of distributions for modeling individual incomes in China was proposed. This family is the so-called Modified Gaussian (MG) distribution, which depends on two parameters. The MG distribution shows a satisfactory fit for the individual income data between 1992 and 2009. However, for the practical use of this model with individual incomes, it is necessary to know its probabilistic and statistical properties, especially the corresponding inequality measures. In this paper, probabilistic functions and inequality measures of the MG distribution are obtained in closed form, including the normalizing constant, probability functions, moments, first-degree stochastic dominance conditions, relationships with other families of distributions and standard tools for inequality measurement (Lorenz and generalized Lorenz curves and Gini, Donaldson–Weymark–Kakwani and Pietra indices). Several methods for parameter estimation are also discussed. In order to illustrate all the previous formulations, we have fitted individual incomes of Spain for three years using the European community household panel survey, concluding a static pattern of inequality, since the Gini index and other inequality measures remain constant over the study period.