ON HYPERBOLIC TIME DISCOUNTING IN EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO WORLD OIL RESOURCES

ABSTRACT. Recent research on discounting in long term economic models involves hyperbolic discounting, in which the marginal discount rate shrinks as time passes. To investigate hyperbolic discounting and exhaustible resource allocation, this work develops a discrete‐time world oil model and model solution procedure, then uses the model to examine the consequences of adopting conventional (constant annual) discounting when hyperbolic discounting is appropriate, of adopting one hyperbolic discount rate path when a different hyperbolic path is appropriate, and of adopting hyperbolic discounting when conventional discounting is appropriate. Five conventional and two hyperbolic discount rate paths are considered. One hyperbolic path is that used by Nordhaus and Boyer [2000]; the other is that recommended by Weitzman [2001]. The generality of the findings is also assessed.     

Conformational analysis of dipeptide‐derived polyisocyanides

The conformational properties of polymers derived from isocyanodipeptides have been investigated with a combination of model calculations, X‐ray diffraction, and circular dichroism spectroscopy. Depending on the configuration of the side chains, defined arrays of hydrogen bonds along the polymeric backbone are formed. This leads to a well‐defined conformation as, for example, expressed in the formation of lyotropic liquid‐crystalline phases and increased helical stability. Upon the disruption of the hydrogen bonds by a strong acid, a less well‐defined macromolecular conformation is observed. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 41: 1725–1736, 2003     

Estimation of integrated volatility in stochastic volatility models

In the framework of stochastic volatility models we examine estimators for the integrated volatility based on the pth power variation (i.e. the sum of pth absolute powers of the log‐returns). We derive consistency and distributional results for the estimators given high‐frequency data, especially taking into account what kind of process we may add to our model without affecting the estimate of the integrated volatility. This may on the one hand be interpreted as a possible flexibility in modelling, for example adding jumps or even leaving the framework of semimartingales by adding a fractional Brownian motion, or on the other hand as robustness against model misspecification. We will discuss possible choices of p under different model assumptions and irregularly spaced data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Index Heuristics for Multiclass M/G/1 Systems with Nonpreemptive Service and Convex Holding Costs

We consider the optimal service control of a multiclass M/G/1 queueing system in which customers are served nonpreemptively and the system cost rate is additive across classes and increasing convex in the numbers present in each class. Following Whittle's approach to a class of restless bandit problems, we develop a Langrangian relaxation of the service control problem which serves to motivate the development of a class of index heuristics. The index for a particular customer class is characterised as a fair charge for service of that class. The paper develops these indices and reports an extensive numerical investigation which exhibits strong performance of the index heuristics for both discounted and average costs.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

基于椭圆型方程的扭叶片造型方法的研究

本文以偏微分方程造型为基础,提出了一种基于椭圆型方程的扭叶片三维型面直接设计方法,详细推导了叶型曲面函数,给出了型面方程的求解及其前后缘修正。该方法具有设计叶型曲面自然光顺,设计参数少且各参数具有明显的几何意义,叶型曲面调整方便,利于采用非数值优化算法对其进行气动优化等优点。文中给出了设计实例,并通过数值实验分析了所设计叶片型面的流动特性。分析结果表明设计叶片具有良好的气动性能,同时也证明了本文提出的基于椭圆型方程的扭叶片三维型面设计方法的可靠性和实用性。     

带惩罚项与随机输入的BP神经网络在线梯度学习算法的收敛性

本文对三层BP神经网络中带有惩罚项的在线梯度学习算法的收敛性问题进行了研究,在网络训练每一轮开始执行之前,对训练样本随机进行重排,以使网络学习更容易跳出局部极小,文中给出了误差函数的单调性定理以及该算法的弱收敛和强收敛性定理。     

M/G/1非空竭服务休假排队系统随机分解的简化算法

本文根据M／G／1非空竭服务休假排队系统稳态队长随机分解的结构特征提出一种统一算法，该方法简洁高效，避免了再生循环方法繁杂的运算。运用该方法得出的结果与已知的用再生循环方法得出的结论一致。并且修正了Levy(1989)关于Bernoulli闸门服务休假排队系统随机分解的一个错误。     

多重休假的带启动--关闭期的Geom/G/1排队

本研究多重休假的带启动——关闭期的Geom／G／1离散时间排队，给出稳态队长，等待时间分布的母函数及其随机分解结果，推导出忙期的全假期的母函数，给出该模型的几个特例。