空间自回归模型中的强相合性

(n,n)表示在空间自回归模型Zij=αZi-1,j βZi,j-1-αβZi-1,j-1 εij中参数(α,β)的Guass-Newton估计,根据已知的结论:当α=β=1时,{n3/2)((^αn)-α,(^β)n-β)}收敛于二元正态随机向量分布即limn{n3/2(^αn)-α,(^β)n-β))′}(D→)N2(0,Γ),其中Γ=diag(2,2).利用双参数强鞅收敛定理,可以证明,当r<(3)/(2)时,nr(n-α,n-β)→(-0).a.e.     

装车站运输作业过程的可靠性研究

针对装车站站停时间的分布问题,采用分析方法,对装车站站停时间的分布规律及影响因素进行分析,探讨提高装车站作业过程可靠性的措施.根据装车站大量翔实的数据,在统计站停时间、装车时间、待机时间的分布规律基础上,建立了可靠性模型,进行了可靠性分析计算.研究结果表明,装车站作业过程的可靠性主要受装车作业时间、机务作业时间的影响.     

The Application of Similarity Theory in Designing Large Deflection Buckling Spring-Piece

Large Deflection Buckling Spring-Piece (LDBSP) refers to the deformation of an end-fixed flat spring-piece under normal loadings. Plastic deformation usually appears in LDBSP.The static characteristic curve is very particular, because within its linear deflection region, the spring constant can be designed to be any value from minus to plus. With its obvious advantages of large liner deflection range, low spring constant, etc., the LDBSP has now been extensively applied to the exciting device, low-frequency shock absorbers and so on. The static characteristic curve of LDBSP belongs to the nonlinear problem of an arch with varying section. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain it theoretically. The formulae for designing LDBSP have not been set up yet. In this study,the authors apply similarity theory to analyze the liner deflection range A and the spring constant K, and derive the relationship of similarity criterion, finally obtain a set of formulae for designing LDBSP by model test and the least square method, which can be applied in engineering design.Through the research, it is proved that it is unnecessary to keep geometrical similarity of spring-piece shape. This fact extends the application scope of the formulae. The proposed formulae for designing LDBSP thereby can be applied for any dimensions within the range allowed.     

多层非均质油藏双分支井产能影响因素分析

针对多层非均质油藏地层之间压力不平衡的特点,建立了多分支井半解析产能预测模型,分析了双分支井产能的影响因素。结果表明,由于分支之间存在干扰,分支夹角越小产能损失越大;两个分支所在地层的条件差别越大,产能高的分支越不易发挥最大潜力,从而影响总产量;井筒中摩擦压降和汇合点处的压力损失对分支井的产能的影响不大。因此,在设计双分支井时,应尽量增大分支之间的夹角,分支汇合点尽量远离油层;分支井的井底流压不大于任何一个分支处的地层压力;两个分支应尽量选取生产压差接近的油层,这样就可以使两个分支都能发挥产能潜力。     

Testing and Evaluation for Web Usability Based on Extended Markov Chain Model

As the increasing popularity and complexity of Web applications and the emergence of their new characteristics. the testing and maintenance of large, complex Web applications are becoming more complex and difficult. Web applications generally contain lots of pages and are used by enormous users. Statistical testing is an effective way of ensuring their quality. Web usage can be accurately described by Markov chain which has been proved to be an ideal model for software statistical testing. The results of unit testing can b eutilized in the latter stages, wbich is an important strategy for bottom-to-top integration testing, and the other improvement of extended Markov chain model (FMM) is to present the error type vector which is treated as a part of page node. This paper also proposes the algorithm for generating test cases of usage paths. Finally, optional usage reliability evaluation methods and an incremental usability regression testing model for testing and evaluation are presented.     

Numerical tests of efficiency of the retrospective time integration scheme in the self-memory model

A set of numerical tests was carried out to compare the retrospective time integral scheme in a self-memory model,whose dynamic kernel is the barotropical quasi-geostrophic model, with the ordinary centered difference scheme in the barotropical quasigeostrophic model. The Rossby-Haurwitz wave function was taken as the initial fields for both schemes. The results show that in comparison with the ordinary centered difference scheme, the retrospective time integral scheme reduces by 2 orders of magnitude the forecast error, and the forecast error increases very little with lengthening of the time-step. Therefore, the retrospective time integral scheme has advantages of improving the forecast accuracy, extending the predictable duration and reducing the computation amount.     

磁化喷流的正反激波动力学

伽玛射线暴是宇宙中最剧烈的伽玛射线爆发现象之一.由物质主导的激波过程已经被广泛的研究过.观测表明,伽玛射线暴爆发时所产生的喷流可能是磁化的,磁化喷流与星际介质相互作用产生的正反激波和以纯物质主导的喷流情形有很大不同.对比Zhang和Kobayashi在理想磁流体力学条件下给出了正反激波的解析解,本文推导了磁化喷流正反激波的一般动力学方程,并对一些关键参数作了数值求解.     

黑龙江省一次能源消费总量和消费结构预测研究

以黑龙江省一次能源为研究对象,选取其1995~2014年一次能源消费的历史数据,构建了改进的BP神经网络模型来预测黑龙江省2015~2020年一次能源的消费总量;重构马尔科夫模型,预测黑龙江省2015~2020年一次能源的消费结构。结果表明：构建的模型模拟预测结果误差小,预测准确度良好。2015~2020年黑龙江省一次能源消费总量基本稳定在9200万吨标准煤;能源消费结构中煤炭、石油和天然气的份额均有所降低,清洁能源占比呈增长趋势;到2020年,一次能源消费结构中煤炭占比仍高达65.39%,清洁能源占比仍处于弱势。建议：降低一次能源的消费总量,尤其是煤炭和石油在一次能源消费中的占比;合理调整一次能源的消费结构,降低煤炭在能源消费结构中的占比;政府出台相关政策,引导消费理念,优先使用清洁能源。     

基于复合主题演化模型的作者研究兴趣动态发现

以金融领域的科技文献作为实验数据,提出了一种新的用于动态挖掘领域相关的作者研究兴趣的复合主题演化模型。该模型能够获取作者在不同时间片下的主题概率分布以及主题下词汇概率分布,并充分考虑作者在合作作者文献中的排名对于其研究主题和主题变化的影响。通过金融领域的实证研究表明,该复合主题演化模型能够有效地揭示金融领域作者研究兴趣的动态变化。     

基于区间灰数预测模型的天猫“双十一”物流需求量预测

基于天猫"双十一"包裹量增长呈"S"形和连续动态变化的特性,对"双十一"包裹量进行预测;首先将天猫历年"双十一"包裹量划分成几个连续区间,然后通过信息分解法对连续区间灰数进行白化处理,将区间灰数分解成白部序列和灰部序列,最后建立基于信息分解的连续区间灰数离散Verhulst预测模型;经误差检验分析,该模型预测结果精度较高,可以作为天猫平台第三方物流企业对物流资源进行合理、有效调配的依据。