基于CEEMD的重大事件对香港住宅价格影响的实证分析

应用互补集成经验模态分解（CEEMD）方法对香港1997―2018年的住宅价格月度数据进行了分解,将经过重构后的数据分成高频序列、低频序列与残差项。将BP多断点检测应用于低频序列,并结合样本时段内的重大事件进行实证分析。结果表明：1997年亚洲金融风暴对房价的影响大于2008年金融危机;外部经济体的救市政策间接地影响香港房价;在经济不景气的大环境下“孙九招”政策没有立即见效;资本投资者入境计划、住房供给调整与按揭贷款调整对房价的影响较为显著;税收调整对房价影响不显著、对交易量影响显著;SARS爆发使住宅价格下降约1%。     

A Continuous-Time Random Walk Extension of the Gillis Model

We consider a continuous-time random walk which is the generalization, by means of the introduction of waiting periods on sites, of the one-dimensional non-homogeneous random walk with a position-dependent drift known in the mathematical literature as Gillis random walk. This modified stochastic process allows to significantly change local, non-local and transport properties in the presence of heavy-tailed waiting-time distributions lacking the first moment: we provide here exact results concerning hitting times, first-time events, survival probabilities, occupation times, the moments spectrum and the statistics of records. Specifically, normal diffusion gives way to subdiffusion and we are witnessing the breaking of ergodicity. Furthermore we also test our theoretical predictions with numerical simulations.     

突发事件下应急物资多目标优化调度模型与算法研究：以新冠肺炎疫情为例

突发事件下应急物资调度具有高度不确定性与动态性,应急物资跨区域调度计划能否科学合理制定对应急救援的有效开展具有重要影响。以武汉市新冠肺炎疫情为例,考虑应急物资跨区域调配的时效差异、地域分散以及资金消耗等要素,建立多周期下包含软硬需求时间窗约束的多物资品种、运输方式的跨区域三级动态物资调度网络模型,并设计一种带变异操作的动态变惯性权重自适应粒子群算法(VDCWPSO),利用疫情算例验证该算法的有效性和可行性。研究结果表明,在保障应急物资供应时效性、公平性、经济性原则下,物资跨区域调度可以缓解资源严重短缺状况、提高医用物资利用率,研究可为突发事件下应急物资调度计划的制定与动态调整提供决策支持。     

Speeding up the FMMR perfect sampling algorithm: A case study revisited

In a previous paper by the second author, two Markov chain Monte Carlo perfect sampling algorithms—one called coupling from the past (CFTP) and the other (FMMR) based on rejection sampling—are compared using as a case study the move‐to‐front (MTF) self‐organizing list chain. Here we revisit that case study and, in particular, exploit the dependence of FMMR on the user‐chosen initial state. We give a stochastic monotonicity result for the running time of FMMR applied to MTF and thus identify the initial state that gives the stochastically smallest running time; by contrast, the initial state used in the previous study gives the stochastically largest running time. By changing from worst choice to best choice of initial state we achieve remarkable speedup of FMMR for MTF; for example, we reduce the running time (as measured in Markov chain steps) from exponential in the length n of the list nearly down to n when the items in the list are requested according to a geometric distribution. For this same example, the running time for CFTP grows exponentially in n. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 2003     

Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains （above 25mm/day） in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country＇s average.     

Perturbative Power Counting,Lowest-Index Operators and Their Renormalization in Standard Model Effective Field Theory

We study two aspects of higher dimensional operators in standard model effective field theory.We first introduce a perturbative power counting rule for the entries in the anomalous dimension matrix of operators with equal mass dimension.The power counting is determined by the number of loops and the difference of the indices of the two operators involved,which in turn is defined by assuming that all terms in the standard model Lagrangian have an equal perturbative power.Then we show that the operators with the lowest index are unique at each mass dimension d,i.e.,(H~?H)~(d/2)for even d≥4,and(L~TεH)C(L~TεH)~T(H~?H)~((d-5)/2)for odd d≥5.Here H,L are the Higgs and lepton doublet,andε,C the antisymmetric matrix of rank two and the charge conjugation matrix,respectively.The renormalization group running of these operators can be studied separately from other operators of equal mass dimension at the leading order in power counting.We compute their anomalous dimensions at one loop for general d and find that they are enhanced quadratically in d due to combinatorics.We also make connections with classification of operators in terms of their holomorphic and anti-holomorphic weights.     

Identify real gravitational wave events in the LIGO-Virgo catalog GWTC-1 and GWTC-2 with convolutional neural network

In recent years, machine learning models have been introduced into the field of gravitational wave (GW) data processing. In this paper, we apply the convolutional neural network (CNN) to LIGO O1, O2, O3a data analysis to search the released 41 GW events which are emitted from binary black hole (BBH) mergers (here we exclude the events from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, and the events that are not detected simultaneously by Hanford (H) and Livingston (L) detectors), and use time sliding method to reduce the false alarm rate (FAR). According to the results, the 41 confirmed GW events of BBH mergers can be classified successfully by our CNN model. Furthermore, through restricting the number of consecutive prewarning from sequential samples intercepted continuously in LIGO O2 real time-series and vetoing the coincidences of noise from H and L, the FAR is limited to be less than once in 2 months. It is helpful to promote LIGO real time data processing.     

新概念无人穿梭艇静水操纵性能

引入一种具有单体半滑行穿浪船型的新概念无人艇——穿梭艇,对其优良的操纵性能进行研究和分析.根据国际海事组织船舶操纵性试验标准,搭建穿梭艇自航模系统,进行标准的自航操纵性试验,获取相关的静水操纵性数据.采用船舶操纵性理论,结合试验数据对穿梭艇的操纵性能进行研究和分析.试验和分析结果表明穿梭艇具有良好的操纵性能和灵活性、独特的操纵性特点和优势.此外,采用数值计算方法,对其独特的操纵性特点进行了理论分析.     

电子商务环境下的会计报告

分析了电子商务时会计报告内容和时效性的影响,介绍了电子商务环境下的会计报告模式,阐述了事项法实时报告系统的会计处理流程以及实时报告系统的实现方式.     

群体性事件的社会心理学分析

最近几年,我国群体性事件呈现多发趋势。从社会心理学角度分析,群体性事件是因社会事件没有满足人们需要而引起的,从众、感染、暗示与模仿、责任分散、去个性化、流言等社会心理机制导致群体性事件规模扩大,群体性事件形成过程一般经历人群聚集、刺激与暗示、情绪感染和情绪爆发几个阶段,参与群体性事件的成员可以分为一般成员和骨干成员,不同类型参与者带着不同的心态参与群体性事件。