环保意识调查问卷的Logistic模型

本文应用多元统计分析中的方差分析 ,logistic模型等方法对环保意识调查问卷反馈的信息进行统计分析 ,建立被调查企业对环境保护意识的logistic模型 ,进而可对企业家的环境保护意识的好坏进行判断。     

中国证券市场股指波动的条件异方差特性分析

股指的波动具有持续性、集聚性 ,如何进行判别 ?本文用 Garch模型理论探讨沪深股指的这种条件异方差特征 ,进一步分析波动是否影响股指未来变化 ,以及股市对利好、利空的消息是否存在不对称的反映。同时 ,比较不同类型的股指的共性及差异 ,并对上述现象作了解释和说明。     

The entropy of Garfinkle-Horne dilaton black hole due to arbitrary spin fields

Using the membrane model which is based on brick wall model, we calculated the free energy and entropy of Garfinkle-Horne dilatonic black hole due to arbitrary spin fields. The result shows that the entropy of scalar field and the entropy of Fermionic field have similar formulas. There is only a coefficient between them.     

Cosmic dust and our origins

The small solid particles in the space between the stars provide the surfaces for the production of many simple and complex molecules. Processes involving the effects of ultraviolet irradiation of the thin (hundredth micron) mantles are shown to produce a wide range of molecules and ions also seen in comets. Some of the more complex ones inferred from laboratory experiments are expected to play an important role in the origin of life. An outline of the chemical evolution of interstellar dust as observed and as studied in the laboratory is presented. Observations of comets are shown to provide substantial evidence for their being fluffy aggregates of interstellar dust as it was in the protosolar nebula, i.e. the interstellar cloud which collapsed to form the solar system. The theory that comets may have brought the progenitors of life to the earth is summarized.     

抗生素调节的单种群chemostat模型研究

构建并分构了抗生素调节的单种群chemosta模型 ,得到了依赖于抗生素输入浓度的微生物种群绝灭和一致持续生存的充分条件 .     

纳米颗粒团聚物流化特性的数值研究

基于气固两相流体动力学理论,建立气体纳米颗粒团聚物两相流动双流体模型.模型中采用了Jung ＆ Gidaspow (2002)测量的固相应力模量和王垚等(2001)提出的聚团曳力系数计算模型.对纳米颗粒团聚物的流化过程进行了数值模拟,得到纳米颗粒团聚物的流化特性.模拟得出的床层膨胀比与文献中实验的结果较为接近.     

基于GM（1，1）模型的某高校招生人数预测

分析了近年来我国高校招生人数的变化趋势，并利用GM（1，1）模型对某高校2008年的招生人数进行了预测．从而为高校招生人数决策提供了依据。     

多档次概率罐子模型估计的渐近性质

对多个处理且试验结果为多档次的临床试验,构建了其概率罐子模型。研究了模型中每个处理试验结果发生的概率。利用极大似然估计方法得到其估计量,并获得此估计量具有渐近正态性。     

Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical analysis of turbulent structure in compound meandering open channel by algebraic Reynolds stress model

The turbulent flow in a compound meandering channel with a rectangular cross section is one of the most complicated turbulent flows, because the flow behaviour is influenced by several kinds of forces, including centrifugal forces, pressure‐driven forces and shear stresses generated by momentum transfer between the main channel and the flood plain. Numerical analysis has been performed for the fully developed turbulent flow in a compound meandering open‐channel flow using an algebraic Reynolds stress model. The boundary‐fitted coordinate system is introduced as a method for coordinate transformation in order to set the boundary conditions along the complicated shape of the meandering open channel. The turbulence model consists of transport equations for turbulent energy and dissipation, in conjunction with an algebraic stress model based on the Reynolds stress transport equations. With reference to the pressure–strain term, we have made use of a modified pressure–strain term. The boundary condition of the fluctuating vertical velocity is set to zero not only for the free surface, but also for computational grid points next to the free surface, because experimental results have shown that the fluctuating vertical velocity approaches zero near the free surface. In order to examine the validity of the present numerical method and the turbulent model, the calculated results are compared with experimental data measured by laser Doppler anemometer. In addition, the compound meandering open channel is clarified somewhat based on the calculated results. As a result of the analysis, the present algebraic Reynolds stress model is shown to be able to reasonably predict the turbulent flow in a compound meandering open channel. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.