风险投资对中小企业经营绩效的影响——基于区分风险投资机构事前效应与事后效应的视角

基于风险投资与企业绩效的内生性关系视角,即是风险投资事前选择了业绩更优的项目,还是其事后监督辅助提升了参与企业的绩效,本文对深圳创业板与中小板上市企业进行PSM配对,并对配对样本在2001至2014年的面板数据进行回归分析,研究发现与同质非风投支持企业相比,风投支持的企业总体上表现出了显著的绩效优势,但这种绩效优势仅仅源自于企业的自身发展能力。风险投资机构在投资前对优质项目具备积极的筛选能力;但在控制了风险投资的筛选效应后,风险投资机构的事后介入对受资企业的绩效甚至起到一定程度的抑制作用。在Heckman两阶段模型结合内生转置回归模型检验中同样证明了风险投资机构具有积极的事前筛选效应;但其事后介入对受资企业的经营绩效产生负向处理效应。此外,风险投资的特征因素对其事后处理效应具有显著的调节作用:相比成熟的风投机构,年轻风投对企业的经营绩效表现出更大的负面事后处理效应;而相比在企业初创阶段介入的风投机构,在企业后期发展阶段介入的风投对参与企业经营绩效表现出更大的负面事后处理效应;相比新兴产业,在传统产业中风投对企业经营绩效表现出更大的负面事后处理效应。     

外商直接投资对国内投资挤入挤出效应的区制动态分析

本文以1999年到2013年的外商直接投资和国内投资的季度数据为基础,采用MS-VECM模型对我国外商直接投资与国内投资的区制状态、区制相关性以及转移概率进行了实证分析。结果表明,在整个样本期内,外商直接投资对我国的国内投资总体上存在挤入效应,但从动态时间路径上看,在经济运行的不同时期,外商直接投资对我国国内投资的影响并不一致,在1999年一季度至2005年三季度期间表现为对国内投资的挤出效应,而在2005年四季度至2013年四季度期间则表现为挤入效应     

人力资本与教育的随机扰动模型

在一个带有生产扰动和公共支出扰动的随机模型中,把教育的产出--人力资本引入效用函数和生产函数,利用随机最优化方法,确定了最优经济增长率和最优个体教育投资率.通过分析参数,得出了最优税率.     

基于SD的城镇就业人数影响因子模型及其仿真

运用协整与Granger因果分析理论确定了国内生产总值、固定资产投资、国家财政收入、全社会消费品总额和第三产业产值为城镇就业人数的影响因子,运用系统动力学的理论与方法构建了城镇就业人数的系统动力学模型,在不同的投资和消费力度下对城镇就业人数进行了模拟。结果表明,消费相对投资而言更能提高就业水平,进而提出相应的对策及建议。     

Economic evaluation for the optimal introduction of flexible manufacturing technology under rivalry

Unless procedures for the economic evaluation of flexible manufacturing technology are revamped, much of U.S. industry could repeat the experience of American automobile and steel companies from the recent past. The dynamic character of flexible manufacturing technology in terms of associated developments in microelectronics, a trend toward equipment modularity, and the increasing diversity of relevant markets make flexible manufacturing especially vulnerable to the weaknesses of conventional procedures for the justification of capital expenditures. Building on the work of V. Smith, M.I. Kamien and N.L. Schwartz, this paper presents optimization models from which economically reasonable plans can be derived for the implementation of flexible manufacturing technology. Although the assumptions of these models are not focused on the situation of a specific plant, model implications and the overall perspectives here on the economic evaluation of flexible system options should provide general guidance for manufacturing planners.     

Enterprise security economics: A self‐defense versus cyber‐insurance dilemma

We propose a model that optimizes enterprise investments in cybersecurity using expected utility theory. The model allows computing (a) investment in self‐defense to reduce the risk of security breaches, (b) investment in cyber insurance to transfer the residual risk to insurance companies, and (c) investment in forensic readiness to make the insured firms capable of generating provable insurance claims about security breaches. A three‐phase–based model of vulnerability rate evolution over time is proposed and used to estimate the different planned security expenditures throughout the investment horizon. At the starting time of investment, a decision maker invests to cover the existing risk of breach and periodically spends to cover the additional risk observed due to the release of new vulnerabilities. In this work, the intermediate tranches are determined while considering three different attitudes of decision makers, namely, optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic. An analysis is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed models.     

生产率差异与企业对外直接投资进入模式选择

基于企业异质性视角,借鉴演化博弈理论探究企业通过OFDI“走出去”时的跨国并购方和标的方在全要素生产率上的差异对企业OFDI进入策略选择的影响机制。利用Hotelling模型构造资本密集型企业与劳动密集型企业OFDI进入策略选择博弈模型,讨论两类企业OFDI进入方式决策在并购双方生产率差异变化之下的变迁机理。研究发现:当并购方和被并购方生产率差异较小时,市场达到两类企业都倾向于跨国并购策略的演化稳定状态;当并购双方生产率差异较大时,企业的生产要素密集度及其结构对其OFDI进入模式决策具有重要的作用,知识或技术密集度较高的资本密集型企业与综合实力强势的部分劳动密集型企业采取跨国并购战略,而另一部分劳动密集型企业选择绿地新建方式进入国际市场。即企业OFDI进入策略选择因其所属的行业生产要素密集度及其结构不同而具有差异性。研究结论在一定程度上弥补了现有研究的不足,为以后的研究工作提供一定的理论参考。     

Optimal consumption and investment with insurer default risk

We solve the optimal consumption and investment problem in an incomplete market, where borrowing constraints and insurer default risk are considered jointly. We derive in closed-form the optimal consumption and investment strategies. We find two main results by quantitative analysis. As insurer default risk increases, the proportion of wealth invested in stocks could increase when wealth is small, and decrease when wealth is large. As risk aversion increases, the voluntary annuity demand could increase when insurer default risk is low, and decrease when this risk is high.     

Optimal investment strategies and risk-sharing arrangements for a hybrid pension plan

A continuous time stochastic model is used to study a hybrid pension plan, where both the contribution and benefit levels are adjusted depending on the performance of the plan, with risk sharing between different generations. The pension fund is invested in a risk-free asset and multiple risky assets. The objective is to seek an optimal investment strategy and optimal risk-sharing arrangements for plan trustees and participants so that this proposed hybrid pension system provides adequate and stable income to retirees while adjusting contributions effectively, as well as keeping its sustainability in the long run. These goals are achieved by minimizing the expected discount disutility of intermediate adjustment for both benefits and contributions and that of terminal wealth in finite time horizon. Using the stochastic optimal control approach, closed-form solutions are derived under quadratic loss function and exponential loss function. Numerical analysis is presented to illustrate the sensitivity of the optimal strategies to parameters of the financial market and how the optimal benefit changes with respect to different risk aversions. Through numerical analysis, we find that the optimal strategies do adjust the contributions and retirement benefits according to fund performance and model objectives so the intergenerational risk sharing seem effectively achieved for this collective hybrid pension plan.     

Asymptotics of discounted aggregate claims for renewal risk model with risky investment

Under the assumption that the claim size is subexponentially distributed and the insurance surplus is totally invested in risky asset, a simple asymptotic relation of tail probability of discounted aggregate claims for renewal risk model within finite horizon is obtained. The result extends the corresponding conclusions of related references.