Generating beta random rate variables from probabilistic estimates of fireline production times

An extension of probabilistic PERT/CPM is proposed as a framework for soliciting expert opinion to characterize random variables for stochastic treatment in simulation models. By eliciting minimum, modal, ninetieth percentile, and maximum estimates, the distribution of variables with probability density functions of beta form can be explicitly characterized without relying on the traditional, but empirically unverified, assumption of a standard deviation equal to one-sixth of the range. This practical and inexpensive technique is illustrated by application to a wildfire protection planning problem – estimating the time required to produce a given length of fireline by different firefighting resources under diverse conditions. The estimated production times are an essential input to a planning model of initial attack on wildland fires used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, and provide that agency with useful rules-of-thumb for use in firefighter training.     

基于混沌理论和改进径向基函数神经网络的网络舆情预测方法

网络舆情发展趋势具有混沌系统的特征, 提出一种基于EMPSO-RBF神经网络的方法对网络舆情的发展趋势进行预测. 首先根据Lyapunov指数证明网络舆情具备混沌的特征, 然后对网络舆情时间序列数据进行相空间重构, 最后采用EMPSO-RBF方法进行预测, 并和其他模型进行对比试验, 实验结果表明EMPSO-RBF方法具有较高精确度.     

基于信息熵的社交网络观点演化模型

随着网络服务的发展,社交网络逐渐成为信息传播的新媒介.因此,研究网络舆情演化具有重要意义和实用价值.为了更好地研究网络舆论,在信息熵的基础上,提出了一个社交网络观点演化模型.此模型存在以下两个特点:一是可以反映个体面对正负两种观点趋向做出抉择时的心理过程;二是可以反映个体形成新观点时主观因素和客观因素的影响.在仿真实验中,讨论了舆论环境对个体观点演化的影响,初始观点和自信度对观点演化的影响,以及意见领袖对群体观点演化的影响.实验结果表明,该模型可以反映真实社交网络中个体的心理学特征,比如个体的观点形成会受到舆论环境的影响,自信的个体不愿意接受他人的观点,当意见领袖存在时群体的观点会受到影响等.     

简析马克思对黑格尔辩证法的批判与改造

在传统的马克思主义“解读”中,人们习惯于将马克思的辩证法看作是对黑格尔辩证法的“颠倒”,即认为马克思在改造黑格尔辩证法的过程中,剥除了黑格尔唯心主义体系的外壳,留下了其辩证法的内核。但是,这一传统说法是对马克思与黑格尔辩证法关系的误解,实际上马克思是对黑格尔辩证法进行了批判之后又加以改造,才最终形成了自己的辩证法。     

企业领导任期经济责任审计

本文从经济责任审计的本质着手,探讨了企业领导任期经济责任审计的目的和内容.其目的是保障受托财产安全完整、保值增值,促进企业持续健康发展,为考核和选拔领导干部提供依据,增强企业领导拒腐防变能力;其内容应围绕对受托企业管理责任、财务责任、可持续发展责任和法律责任等方面进行.     

微博传播波的函数解析实证研究

为定量地揭示微博传播行为内在的时间演化规律,将微博转发量随时间的变化定义为微博传播波.根据微博传播网络的结构,将微博传播波分解为由若干"大V"所引发的微博传播子波.通过实证,发现了微博传播子波所遵从的统一的指数衰减函数形式.最终实现了将微博传播行为重构为一系列指数衰减函数的叠加,并对该函数中各参数的意义及影响因素进行了初步的探讨.     

The Power of Nature——A transcendentalist review of the 19th century American novels

Taking Emerson and Thoreau's transcendentalist opinions as a main framework of the essay,this paper mainly talks about how does the power of Nature infulunce the main characters of the 19th century American novels.It also trys to find a conclusion that the one who rely on the nature could survive and the one who fight against or keep away from nature will perish.     

论军队舆论监督的“度”

军队舆论监督的"度",是军队舆论监督不与我军性质宗旨相背离的边界和底线,是不与我军使命任务相冲突的程度和范围,是保证发挥其积极作用的内在尺度。要通过坚持正面宣传为主,坚持"以人为本、治病救人",坚持科学辩证的运行原则,保证军队舆论监督"适度"而不"过度"。当前,应通过积极反映和纠治不良现象、促进党组织多种领导方式的相互协调、建立健全保障官兵民主监督权利的法规制度,来防止军队舆论监督"力度"过小、"热度"过低。     

舆论监督与新闻侵权的矛盾和平衡

舆论监督的定义、性质、地位和作用;新闻侵权的背景、含义及主要类型;二者的相互关系;以及如何在行使舆论监督权利的同时规避新闻侵权的发生。     

Oscillation of the NCO model

We study opinion oscillation of the nonconsensus opinion model (NCO) on graphs, and in particular on bipartite graphs. Using intensive numerical simulations, we investigate the relationship between amplitude A$A$ (the percentage of nodes whose opinions oscillate) and (p,q)$(p,q)$, which are the initial configuration fractions with opinion 1 on two sets of two bipartite graphs. Finally, for the general graph, we present several definitions and develop three propositions as regards whether an oscillation can occur or not on a certain graph.