Using a partially observable Markov chain model to assess colonoscopy screening strategies – A cohort study

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is notoriously hard to combat for its high incidence and mortality rates. However, with improved screening technology and better understanding of disease pathways, CRC is more likely to be detected at early stage and thus more likely to be cured. Among the available screening methods, colonoscopy is most commonly used in the U.S. because of its capability of visualizing the entire colon and removing the polyps it detected. The current national guideline for colonoscopy screening recommends an observation-based screening strategy. Nevertheless, there is scant research studying the cost-effectiveness of the recommended observation-based strategy and its variants. In this paper, we describe a partially observable Markov chain (POMC) model which allows us to assess the cost-effectiveness of both fixed-interval and observation-based colonoscopy screening strategies. In our model, we consider detailed adenomatous polyp states and estimate state transition probabilities based on longitudinal clinical data from a specific population cohort. We conduct a comprehensive numerical study which investigates several key factors in screening strategy design, including screening frequency, initial screening age, screening end age, and screening compliance rate. We also conduct sensitivity analyses on the cost and quality of life parameters. Our numerical result demonstrates the usability of our model in assessing colonoscopy screening strategies with consideration of partial observation of true health states. This research facilitates future design of better colonoscopy screening strategies.     

APPLICATION OF THE MODIFIED METHOD OF MULTIPLE SCALES TO THE BENDING PROBLEMS FOR CIRCULAR THIN PLATE AT VERY LARGE DEFLECTION AND THE ASYMPTOTICS OF SOLUTIONS(Ⅱ)

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＩｎ［１］，ｔｈｅｓｅｒｉｅｓｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｔｈｅｃｉｒｃｕｌａｒｐｌａｔｅｗｉｔｈｈｉｎｇｅｄｅｄｇｅａｎｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｓｉｍｐｌｙｓｕｐｐｏｒｔｅｄｅｄｇｅｈａｓｙｅｔｂｅｎｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｅｄ，ｗｈｉｃｈａ...     

对我国青少年吸烟状况和吸烟行为的新研究

采用文献资料和逻辑分析等方法,对我国青少年吸烟现状进行了分析,对主动吸烟和被动吸烟的危害加以综述,并从社会心理学视角分析了青少年的吸烟行为,进而对制定青少年禁控戒烟的措施进行了阐述。     

Anodic voltammetric behaviors of methotrexate at a glassy carbon electrode and its determination in spiked human urine

The anodic voltammetric behavior of methotrexate was studied at glassy carbon electrode in acetate buffer (pH = 3.6) solution using cyclic, square-wave voltammetric and chronocoulometric techniques. The oxidation of methotrexate is an irreversible diffusion-controlled process. The oxidation mechanism was proposed and discussed in this work. The dependence of the current on pH, the concentration and nature of buffer, and instrumental parameters were investigated to optimize the experimental conditions for the determination of methotrexate. It was found that in the range of 8.0 × 10⁻⁷–2.0 × 10⁻⁵ mol/L, the currents measured by square-wave voltammetry presented a good linear property as a function of the concentrations of methotrexate. In addition, validation parameters, such as reproducibility, sensitivity and recovery were evaluated as well. The proposed method was also successfully applied for the determination of methotrexate in diluted human urine with good satisfactory.     

Controllability properties of nonlinear behaviors

This paper proposes a topological framework for the analysis of the time shift on behaviors. It is shown that controllability is not a property of the time shift, while chain controllability is. This also leads to a global decomposition of behaviors.

     

On the use of nickel foil strain gages at varying temperatures

When a strain gage made of nickel foil attached on the surface of a specimen is subjected to repeated loads, the elastic stress is measured by observing slip-bands in the foil resulting from repeated strain. Calibration studies with rotating-bending tests at various temperatures between room temperature and 350°C are performed on round steel bars with nickel foil. The relation between the threshold stress for the first appearance of slip-bands and the number of stress cycles is examined at varying temperatures, which provides the calibration values of the nickel foil tested at varying temperatures. Assuming that the first appearance of slip-bands is based on the linear cumulative damage law, the calibration values at varying temperatures are calculated from those established by the calibration tests at several constant temperatures. It is found that the calculated calibration values agree well with the results obtained by the calibration tests at varying temperatures and that the calculation applying the linear cumulative damage law is a useful method to presume the calibration values at varying temperatures without performing the experiment.     

森林地表火火行为预测预报系统

本文从地表火蔓延的本质入手，建立了一整套求解地表火行为特征量的数学模型，并运用现代软件编制技术，成功地编制出预测预报地表火行为的计算机软件。该系统能预测复杂地形、气象条件和可燃物分布情形下，火蔓延过程中不同阶段的火行为状况。算例结果表明，系统在预测结果的合理性和准确性等方面优于美国的BEHAVE程序。     

建构主义教学观对教师教学行为的影响

注重知识传输的传统教学弊端日益显现。建构主义教学主张学生在教师指导下 ,通过情境合作、交流、会话 ,积极主动地进行意义建构。这种教学观对教师提出了新的挑战 ,要求教师转变其教学行为。     

东鞍山贫铁矿石磁选预富集行为

针对东鞍山贫铁矿石(Fe质量分数34.60%)中含有赤铁矿、磁铁矿和少量的菱铁矿,提出了一种弱磁粗选-高梯度扫选的预富集工艺,并借助XRD、铁的化学物相分析及扫描电镜(SEM)考察了磁场强度和原料磨矿细度对东鞍山铁矿石预富集行为的影响.结果表明,在磨矿细度-0.074mm占70%(质量分数)、弱磁粗选磁场强度120mT、高梯度扫选Ⅰ磁场强度300mT及高梯度扫选Ⅱ磁场强度800mT的条件下,可获得Fe质量分数42.67%、回收率95.45%的预富集精矿;磁铁矿富集于弱磁粗选作业中,赤铁矿和菱铁矿在高梯度扫选作业中得到有效富集,尾矿中丢失的铁矿物主要为微细粒赤铁矿(＜10μm),由于受到的磁性捕获力弱而无法得到回收.     

A STUDY ON THE COUNTER-INTUITIVE BEHAVIORS OF PIN-ENDED BEAMS UNDER PROJECTILE IMPACT

The counter-intuitive behaviors of pin-ended beams under the projectile impact are investigated with ANSYS/LS-DYNA in this paper. It studies in detail their displacement-time history curves, final deformed shapes, energy relationships and projectile impact velocity ranges related to their counter-intuitive behaviors. The influences of the impact positions on their counterintuitive behaviors are also discussed. The results show that no matter where the impact position on the beam is, the counter-intuitive behaviors of pinned beams will occur as long as the impacting velocity lies within a proper range. Corresponding to the occurring of the counter-intuitive behaviors, the rebounding number in the displacement history curves of the beams decreases from a few times to zero with an increase of the impact velocity. The final deformation modes of the beam corresponding to the counter-intuitive behaviors will appear in symmetrical and unsym-metrical forms no matter where the impact position is; the impact velocity of the first-occurring of the counter-intuitive behaviors of the beam increases slowly with the deviation of the impact position away from the mid-span.