A nonlinear time-varying adaptive filter is introduced, and its derivation using optimal control concepts is given in detail. The filter, which is called the discrete Pontryagin filter, is basically an extension to Sridhar filtering theory. The proposed approach can easily replace the conventional methods of autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models in their many applications. Instead of using a large number of time-invariant parameters to describe the signal or the time series, a single time-varying function is enough. This function is estimated using optimization techniques. Many features are gained using this approach, such as simpler and compact filter equations and better overall accuracy. The statistical properties of the filter are given, and it is shown that the signal estimate will converge in thepth mean to the true value. 相似文献
The viewpoint taken in this paper is that data assimilation is fundamentally a statistical problem and that this problem should be cast in a Bayesian framework. In the absence of model error, the correct solution to the data assimilation problem is to find the posterior distribution implied by this Bayesian setting. Methods for dealing with data assimilation should then be judged by their ability to probe this distribution. In this paper we propose a range of techniques for probing the posterior distribution, based around the Langevin equation; and we compare these new techniques with existing methods.
When the underlying dynamics is deterministic, the posterior distribution is on the space of initial conditions leading to a sampling problem over this space. When the underlying dynamics is stochastic the posterior distribution is on the space of continuous time paths. By writing down a density, and conditioning on observations, it is possible to define a range of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which sample from the desired posterior distribution, and thereby solve the data assimilation problem. The basic building-blocks for the MCMC methods that we concentrate on in this paper are Langevin equations which are ergodic and whose invariant measures give the desired distribution; in the case of path space sampling these are stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs).
Two examples are given to show how data assimilation can be formulated in a Bayesian fashion. The first is weather prediction, and the second is Lagrangian data assimilation for oceanic velocity fields. Furthermore the relationship between the Bayesian approach outlined here and the commonly used Kalman filter based techniques, prevalent in practice, is discussed. Two simple pedagogical examples are studied to illustrate the application of Bayesian sampling to data assimilation concretely. Finally a range of open mathematical and computational issues, arising from the Bayesian approach, are outlined. 相似文献
On the assumption that random interruptions in the observation process are modelled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables, this paper generalize the extended Kalman filtering (EKF), the unscented Kalman filtering (UKF) and the Gaussian particle filtering (GPF) to the case in which there is a positive probability that the observation in each time consists of noise alone and does not contain the chaotic signal (These generalized novel algorithms are referred to as GEKF, GUKF and GGPF correspondingly in this paper). Using weights and network output of neural networks to constitute state equation and observation equation for chaotic time-series prediction to obtain the linear system state transition equation with continuous update scheme in an online fashion, and the prediction results of chaotic time series represented by the predicted observation value, these proposed novel algorithms are applied to the prediction of Mackey-Glass time-series with additive and multiplicative noises. Simulation results prove that the GGPF provides a relatively better prediction performance in comparison with GEKF and GUKF. 相似文献
The first attempt for reducing the Gibbs phenomenon in an orthogonalexpansion, besides the usual one of Fourier series, is due to Cooke in1927–1928 for the Fourier Bessel series.However, his work was limited tothe well-known Fejer averaging of the series. For the past 10 years or so,we have tried a parallel to the more effective Lanczos-type localaveraging method of the Fourier series. As expected, such efforts werehindered by the lack of realizable tools for the general orthogonalexpansion that parallels the familiar simple ones of the Fourier seriesand transforms. During the past 3 years, we have succeeded in developinga simple direct method of filtering the Gibbs phenomenon in Fourier--Besselseries, Hankel transforms representation, and a number of orthogonalpolynomials series expansions. This parallels the equivalent result ofLanczos, which he obtained for his local averaging with the help ofthe (Fourier) convolution theorem. 相似文献