基于三角模糊数的钻井井控风险定量评价研究

加强钻井井控风险评价是有效降低井喷事故发生率、减少事故损失的基础工作。为了解决钻井井控风险评价中模糊的不确定的变量难以量化、不能准确量化的难题,将三角模糊数运用到井控风险评价中。针对钻井井控风险的特点,结合现场数据提出了11个关键的钻井井控风险诱因,归纳、分类建立了层次指标体系。结合三角模糊数的理论建立了基于三角模糊数的钻井井控风险定量评价模型。以罗家16H井为例,提取评价所需要的诱因参数,运用该模型进行计算分析,结果表明该井的综合风险值为0.624,属于高度风险值范围,故确定为高度风险等级,该风险等级评价结果与罗家16H井实际情况基本相符。研究表明该井控风险定量评价模型具有一定的准确性和实用性,可以用于现场对单井进行钻井井控风险评价。     

The principal-agent problem with evolutionary learning

We extend agency theory to incorporate bounded rationality of both principals and agents. In this study we define a simple version of the principal-agent game and examine it using object-oriented computer simulation. Player learning is simulated with a genetic algorithm model. Our results show that players of incentive games in highly uncertain environments may take on defensive strategies. These defensive strategies lead to equilibria which are inferior to Nash equilibria. If agents are risk averse, the principal may not be able to provide enough monetary compensation to encourage them to take risks. But principals may be able to improve system performance by identifying good performers and facilitating information exchange among agents.The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions.     

工作模态参数识别方法的研究

针对传统模态识别方法难以准确识别重频、高阻尼比的模态参数的特点,主要研究了系统在环境激励下不同工况用随机子空间法和Polymax算法识别的模态参数(模态频率、模态阻尼比和模态振型)的变化情况。随机子空间法是一种时域模态参数识别方法,在相邻模态的识别方面,它明显优于一些传统的模态识别方法。Polymax模态识别方法也称为多参考点最小二乘复频域法,在阻尼比的识别方面具有明显的优势。本文通过悬臂梁的对比实验研究验证了它们在不同激励条件下的有效性和可靠性。     

管理者预算参与对管理绩效影响的实证研究

引人预算态度、预算激励变量,采用问卷调查法分析管理者的预算参与行为与管理绩效的关系,并构建了结构方程模型.研究发现:管理者预算参与与管理绩效成正相关,而这种正相关又受到预算激励的调节作用,即预算激励既直接调节管理者预算参与与管理绩效的关系,也通过管理者对预算的态度这一中介变量间接调节管理者预算参与与管理绩效的关系.     

政府激励在经济增长中作用:以吉林省为例

本文从政府制度对经济发展的影响出发,运用模型分析了制度激励对吉林省的作用和影响,对吉林省财政体制改革的激励作用进行分析,阐述了利弊并给予建议.     

Promoting exercise behavior with monetary and social incentives: An empirical study based on an online fitness program

Due to the importance of employees’ physical well-being, organizations have long been conducting wellness programs to motivate their employees to exercise. The wide use of wearable devices (e.g., smart bands and smartphones) and fitness applications (e.g., fitness mobile applications) enable organizations to shift from offline to online fitness programs where participants use physical activity records tracked by wearable devices to complete fitness tasks and challenges. To better motivate employees’ exercise behavior, online fitness programs widely offer monetary or social incentives strategies. However, little is known about the interaction effects of the two types of incentives when they are jointly offered. Besides, organizers lack knowledge of how to set an optimal fitness challenge for the incentives in online fitness programs. In this study, we obtained a rich panel dataset from a university-wide online fitness program, which includes the daily exercise records of 2578 participants during a 100-day period, to empirically investigate the joint effects of monetary and social incentives on individuals’ exercise behavior. Most interestingly, we found that there is a crowd-out effect between monetary and social incentives—the influences of social incentives (i.e., social support and social contagion) are relatively weaker when there exists an unachieved monetary goal; once the monetary goal has been achieved, the influences of social incentives become stronger. In addition, we found that participants’ exercise behavior can be maximized when the dynamic goal is set at an optimal level. Our findings can help practitioners better design the online fitness programs and the associated fitness technologies.     

财税政策激励企业R&D投入的实证分析

以企业所得税税负、流转税税负和财政科技拨款强度作为税收优惠和财政补贴政策工具的度量指标,分析了我国1991--2010年规模以上工业企业R＆D投入强度与企业所得税税负、流转税税负和财政科技拨款强度之间的关系。结果表明,四者之间存在着长期均衡关系,财政科技拨款强度对规模以上工业企业R＆D投入强度短期具有挤出效应,但长期具有明显的促进效应。而企业所得税税负和流转税税负对规模以上工业企业R＆D投入强度具有明显的抑制作用,且短期效果较显著。     

要素禀赋框架下的政府科技激励与技术创新效率研究 ——基于动态面板数据的SYS GMM检验

根据1999—2011年中国37个工业行业的相关数据,首先基于随机前沿方法(SFA)对技术创新效率进行测量,利用面板数据的系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM),实证检验了不同要素禀赋下中国政府在技术创新投入和产出方面的行为在整体上和分行业两个层面对技术创新效率的影响。结果显示,中国工业行业技术创新效率整体较低,其中政府的直接资金支持对整体行业带来了技术创新效率的"损失",而分行业的政府科技投入只对高技术制造行业有效。政府对知识产权的保护,不论是对整体行业还是分行业,均表现为正向影响,但对整体行业、分行业中的初级产品行业、劳动和资源密集型制造行业不显著,对低技术和中等技术行业虽然显著,但是影响作用很小。此外,还探讨了除政府因素外,企业规模、行业竞争程度和行业所有制结构对技术创新效率的影响。     

Risk aversion in maintenance: overmaintenance and the principal-agent problem

^** Email: r.d.baker{at}salford.ac.uk The concept of a risk-averse maintenance policy is introduced,and two approaches to modelling it are discussed, the firstbeing via utility functions, and the second via inflation ofthe costs of unscheduled failures. After introducing a generalmethodology, several examples of its application are given.Principal-agent theory is then applied to the case of a maintenanceengineer (the agent) who overmaintains equipment due to excessiverisk aversion. Incentives based on the total cost of maintenanceand failures can reduce overmaintenance, and it may be optimalfor management to pay such an incentive. The problem is illustratedwith an example of block maintenance. Suggestions for furtherwork in this field are made.     

经营者股票期权激励的有效性研究

股票期权是基于公司资产的看涨期权，其对经营者和员工激励的效果受多种因素的影响，如市场环境、企业的风险特征等。股票期权的激励作用是有条件的，如资本市场的有效性、公司治理结构的完善与否等，我国在建立股票期权激励制度中，要使此种激励制度有效，要提高我国资本市场的有效性；建立和完善经理人市场；完善企业治理结构和监督管理机制；建立科学的企业绩效考评体系。