Analysis of VIX Markets with a Time-Spread Portfolio

This paper explores the relationship between option markets for the S&P500 (SPX) and Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX). Results are obtained by using the so-called time-spread portfolio to replicate a future contract on the squared VIX. The time-spread portfolio is interesting because it provides a model-free link between derivative prices for SPX and VIX. Time spreads can be computed from SPX put options with different maturities, which results in a term structure for squared volatility. This term structure can be compared to the VIX-squared term structure that is backed-out from VIX call options. The time-spread portfolio is also used to measure volatility-of-volatility (vol-of-vol) and the volatility leverage effect. There may emerge small differences in these measurements, depending on whether time spreads are computed with options on SPX or options on VIX. A study of 2012 daily options data shows that vol-of-vol estimates utilizing SPX data will reflect the volatility leverage effect, whereas estimates that exclusively utilize VIX options will predominantly reflect the premia in the VIX-future term structure.     

General financial market model defined by a liquidation value process

Financial market models defined by a liquidation value process generalize the conic models of Schachermayer and Kabanov where the transaction costs are proportional to the exchanged volumes of traded assets. The solvency set of all portfolio positions that can be liquidated without any debt is not necessary convex, e.g. in presence of proportional transaction costs and fixed costs. Therefore, the classical duality principle based on the Hahn–Banach separation theorem is not appropriate to characterize the prices super hedging a contingent claim. Using an alternative method based on the concepts of essential supremum and maximum, we provide a characterization of European and American contingent claim prices under the absence of arbitrage opportunity of the second kind.     

看涨期权型理财产品的对冲策略研究

理财产品已经成为国内银行不断提升综合竞争力和盈利水平的重要业务,银行出售看涨期权型理财产品为银行的经营带来新的风险,因此需要新的风险管理方法。对理财的一款看涨期权型理财产品进行Delta对冲结果显示,虽然银行可获得正的期望盈利,但即使通过每日动态调整策略该产品仍然有接近25%的机会出现亏损,并且出现最大亏损的概率也较大。因此,对于看涨期权型理财产品,单纯通过Delta对冲策略,银行并不能实现无风险套利。     

随机波动率模型下含违约风险的欧式衍生产品的套期保值

研究了含违约风险的欧式未定权益的最优套期保值问题. 假定含违约风险衍生产品的标的资产满足Heston随机波动率模型, 则利用局部风险最小化方法获得含违约风险衍生产品的最优套期保值策略. 此外, 还考虑了在一个特别情况下, 研究了含违约风险的欧式看涨期权的最优套期保值问题, 并通过特征函数和傅里叶反演公式给出了明确的局部风险最小化套期保值策略.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis><Superscript>2</Superscript>-approximating Pricing under Restricted Information

We consider the mean-variance hedging problem under partial information in the case where the flow of observable events does not contain the full information on the underlying asset price process. We introduce a certain type martingale equation and characterize the optimal strategy in terms of the solution of this equation. We give relations between this equation and backward stochastic differential equations for the value process of the problem. This work was supported by Georgian National Science Foundation grant STO07/3-172.     

考虑结算风险的套期保值研究

期货市场的风险转移功能主要通过套期保值策略来实现,期货市场套期保值的关键问题是套期保值比率的确定。现有套期保值研究侧重于规避价格风险,忽略了期货市场另一个重要的风险因素-结算风险。本文通过建立考虑结算风险的期货套期保值决策模型,有效地平衡了套期保值过程中的价格风险与结算风险。具体特色一是将套保者的结算风险厌恶态度直接反映到套期比的计算中,体现了结算风险对套期保值决策的影响;二是在一定条件下,本模型的套期比趋近于最小方差套期比;三是利用ARMA时间序列方法预测期货与现货的价格走势,有效地反映了期货价格一阶平稳和季节性变化规律,使估计的套期比更加精确可靠。     

棉花期货市场功能发挥评价及其实证研究

在国内外相关研究成果的基础上,通过定性研究和定量研究相结合的方法,对中国棉花期货市场的功能进行分析.定量研究了CF0705棉花期货品种的价格发现和套期保值功能.在研究棉花期货的价格发现功能时,用时间序列的ADF检验和PP检验来判断价格序列的平稳性,继而通过协整分析探讨了现货价格和期货价格的协整关系,然后用Granger非因果关系检验判断了现货价格和期货价格之间的Granger引导关系,最后用GARCH模型分析了现货市场与期货市场之间的价格波动溢出效应;在研究棉花期货的风险规避功能时,先通过基差分析来选定ECM模型,然后主要用ECM模型拟合了最佳套期保值比率,最后计算了棉花期货的套期保值绩效.发现样本期间内,CF0705棉花期货市场对现货的价格发现功能比较明显.距离最后交易日2个月以内期价序列和现价序列之间存在协整关系,期货价格是现货价格的无偏估计量,期货价格是有效的.另外,CF0705棉花期货套期保值的功能较好地得到发挥,最优套期保值比率约为0.999,套期保值绩效约为0.772.     

蒙古前四汗时期蒙藏关系新探——以“斡腹之谋”为视角

成吉思汗时期,蒙军形成了假道吐蕃、大理经南宋后方广西以北上灭宋的“斡腹之谋”。此灭宋战略计划在前四汗时期被逐步付诸实施,而成为贯穿于前四汗时期宋蒙战史的主线。因受宋蒙关系及宋蒙战局影响,吐蕃、大理一线（今藏彝走廊地区）成为蒙军对宋战略主攻方向和进军路线要道,吐蕃诸部被迫卷入蒙军征服计划与行动之内。文章以“斡腹之谋”为视角,对前四汗时期蒙藏关系进行了新的探讨,总结出蒙军对吐蕃诸部之经略主要服务于开辟一条路经吐蕃、大理而至南宋广西用兵路线,因而其时蒙藏关系带有鲜明武力假道借路的军事色彩。     

双曲折现、消费决策与套期保值策略

建立了基于双曲折现的消费-套期保值选择模型,求得了模型的最优解,讨论了最优的消费与套期保值策略,发现双曲折现只对消费决策有影响,而对套期保值策略没有影响,并且双曲折现的最优消费高于传统指数折现情形.     

需求风险下套期保值与市场进入分析

需求风险是企业面临的主要风险之一,对企业的生产经营和管理决策具有重要影响。本文考虑由多个风险厌恶企业构成的产品竞争市场,分析了需求风险下企业参与套期保值和市场进入的决策问题。文章首先通过Cournot博弈分析了套期保值对于规避需求风险的作用和意义;然后,探讨了企业参与套期保值和市场进入的决策过程,并给出了三种情形下的市场均衡结构;最后,通过数值实验对结论进行了验证。研究表明:套期保值提高了企业应对需求风险的能力,使企业获得更高的产量和收益;参与套期保值企业数量随着进入市场企业数量的增加而减少;当市场竞争程度或市场费用增加时,将会有更多的企业选择参与套期保值,而选择进入市场的企业会减少。