Complex dynamics in equilibrium asset pricing models with boundedly rational,heterogeneous agents

We study a simple model based upon the Lucas framework where heterogeneous agents behave rationally in a fully intertemporal setting but do not know other investors' personal preferences, wealth or investment portfolios. As a consequence, agents initially do not know the equilibrium asset pricing function and must make guesses, which they update via adaptive learning with constant gain. We demonstrate that even in this simple environment the economy can, depending on parameters, exhibit either stable convergence to equilibrium, or chaotic dynamical behavior of asset prices and trading volume without converging to the rational expectations equilibrium of the Lucas model. This contradicts the assertion that the Lucas model is stable in the face of modest deviations from the strong assumptions required to compute the equilibrium. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 19: 38–55, 2014     

咸丰至光绪初年河南的军饷负担

咸丰(1851—1861年)至光绪(1875—1908年)初年,河南承担的军饷大致分为两个阶段,前一阶段主要承担的是清军"围剿"太平军、捻军的军饷,后一阶段则是左宗棠西征和西北、东北的军饷,其总量远远超过了河南经济的承载力。     

新制度下完善高等学校举债机制的路径选择

随着高等学校办学经费来源多元化，举债办学以及债务管理日益成为高校财务管理重要工作之责。研究新高等学校财务制度和会计制度有关债务管理规范，并提出完善高校举债机制的路径，有利于创新高校财务管理体系，提高综合财务管理水平和能力，构建现代法治大学体系，保障和促进高等教育健康发展。     

保险理财产品分析

随着经济的日益发展,理财成为我们获得财富的必然手段。在解释理财概念的基础上,阐述了保险理财的必要性,并从保障性、安全性、收益性等方面,分析和总结了保险理财产品的优势。     

浅析金融危机和贸易的关系

在分析金融危机与贸易关系的基础上,阐述了金融危机带来的危害,并从国际、国内两方面分析了引发金融危机的因素。     

A deductive approach to the solution of the problem of optimal pairs trading from the viewpoint of stochastic control with time‐dependent parameters

In a fairly recent paper (2008 American Control Conference, June 11‐13, 1035‐1039), the problem of dealing with trading in optimal pairs was treated from the viewpoint of stochastic control. The analysis of the subsequent nonlinear evolution partial differential equation was based upon a succession of Ansätze, which can lead to a solution of the terminal‐value problem. Through an application of the Lie Theory of Continuous Groups to this equation, we show that the Ansätze are based upon the underlying symmetries of the equation (their (14)). We solve the problem in a more general context by allowing the parameters to be explicitly time dependent. The extension means thatmore realistic problems are amenable to the samemode of solution. Copyright © 2014 JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.     

”Illusion of control” in Time-Horizon Minority and Parrondo Games

Human beings like to believe they are in control of their destiny. This ubiquitous trait seems to increase motivation and persistence, and is probably evolutionarily adaptive [J.D. Taylor, S.E. Brown, Psych. Bull. 103, 193 (1988); A. Bandura, Self-efficacy: the exercise of control (WH Freeman, New York, 1997)]. But how good really is our ability to control? How successful is our track record in these areas? There is little understanding of when and under what circumstances we may over-estimate [E. Langer, J. Pers. Soc. Psych. 7, 185 (1975)] or even lose our ability to control and optimize outcomes, especially when they are the result of aggregations of individual optimization processes. Here, we demonstrate analytically using the theory of Markov Chains and by numerical simulations in two classes of games, the Time-Horizon Minority Game [M.L. Hart, P. Jefferies, N.F. Johnson, Phys. A 311, 275 (2002)] and the Parrondo Game [J.M.R. Parrondo, G.P. Harmer, D. Abbott, Phys. Rev. Lett. 85, 5226 (2000); J.M.R. Parrondo, How to cheat a bad mathematician (ISI, Italy, 1996)], that agents who optimize their strategy based on past information may actually perform worse than non-optimizing agents. In other words, low-entropy (more informative) strategies under-perform high-entropy (or random) strategies. This provides a precise definition of the “illusion of control” in certain set-ups a priori defined to emphasize the importance of optimization. An erratum to this article is available at .     

金融信息网格诸问题的解析

为了实现金融系统的信息共享,针对金融系统大型计算机具有的分布性、异构性和协同性等特征,利用网格技术,从金融系统大型计算机的用户接口、外围编译器和文件系统的管理实现方面,提出了金融信息网格的用户门户,异构计算机系统编译器模型的构造,隐蔽网络延迟、提高网格数据利用率的网格虚拟文件管理系统(GVFMS:Grid Virtual File Management System),构建了金融信息网格的实现基础。实现了金融系统的互联互通。     

国家财政支农的效益性与路径选择

通过对国家财政支农宏观、中观、微观效益低下的实证分析,从国家预算、财政意识、政府博弈、配套政策诸方面探讨了影响财政支农效益的深层原因,进而指出国家财政支农的路径选择。     

关于我国现行财政转移支付制度的思考

从制度经济学的角度出发,论述了我国现行财政转移支付制度的作用和我国财政转移制度的主要形式、构成、特点,分析了其存在的缺陷,并提出了完善我国财政转移支付制度的一些建议。