“810■”号登陆台风暴雨的诊断研究

本文在统计华南登陆台风暴雨的基础上,着重对8107号台风登陆后的强度变化及其暴雨过程进行了诊断研究.结果表明,华南登陆台风及其降水的强度变化主要取决于水汽输送条件的变化,Q_1、Q_2的变化则表明,积云对流及其潜热加热的反馈作用是登陆台风及其暴雨维持和加强的主要机制.     

三峡库区地形与暴雨的气候分析

以三峡库区为例，分析了峡谷地形对暴雨影响的气候特征。结果表明：峡谷地形对谷坡上部和下部暴雨都有很明显的增幅作用，但作用机制不同     

计算机研究闭环极点的方法

本文提出用电子计算机迅速、精确地研究闭环控制系统极点的方法,本方法适用于任意高阶系统.     

强平的Banach空间

定义了强平的Banach空间,证明了若X是强平的,则X的范数是粗的;若X具有KMP,则X不存在等价的强平范数。     

Limit Theorems for the Maximum Terms of a Sequence of Random Variables with Marginal Geometric Distributions

Let X _n1 ^* , ... X _nn ^* be a sequence of n independent random variables which have a geometric distribution with the parameter p _n = 1/n, and M _n ^* = \max\{X _n1 ^* , ... X _nn ^* }. Let Z ₁, Z₂, Z₃, ... be a sequence of independent random variables with the uniform distribution over the set N _n = {1, 2, ... n}. For each j N _n let us denote X _nj = min{k : Z_k = j}, M _n = max{X_n1, ... X_nn}, and let S _n be the 2nd largest among X _n1, X_n2, ... X_nn. Using the methodology of verifying D(u_n) and D'(u_n) mixing conditions we prove herein that the maximum M _n has the same type I limiting distribution as the maximum M _n ^* and estimate the rate of convergence. The limiting bivariate distribution of (S_n, M_n) is also obtained. Let _n, _n N_n, , and T _n = min{M(A_n), M(B_n)}. We determine herein the limiting distribution of random variable T _n in the case _n , _n/_n > 0, as n .     

Compound Poisson Approximation of the Number of Exceedances in Gaussian Sequences

Consider a finite sequence of Gaussian random variables. Count the number of exceedances of some level a, i.e. the number of values exceeding the level. Let this level and the length of the sequence increase simultaneously so that the expected number of exceedances remains fixed. It is well-known that if the long-range dependence is not too strong, the number of exceeding points converges in distribution to a Poisson distribution. However, for sequences with some individual large correlations, the Poisson convergence is slow due to clumping. Using Steins method we show that, at least for m-dependent sequences, the rate of convergence is improved by using compound Poisson as approximating distribution. An explicit bound for the convergence rate is derived for the compound Poisson approximation, and also for a subclass of the compound Poisson distribution, where only clumps of size two are considered. Results from numerical calculations and simulations are also presented.     

The Limit Distribution of the Largest Interpoint Distance from a Symmetric Kotz Sample

Generalizing recent work of P. C. Matthews and A. L. Rukhin (Ann. Appl. Probab.3(1993), 454–466), we obtain the limit law of the largest interpoint Euclidean distance for a spherically symmetric multivariate sample of the Kotz distribution. While going through the proof, some errors in the reasoning given by Matthews and Rukhin are pointed out and corrected.     

Point processes and multivariate extreme values

A new model for point processes is developed which assumes that the interarrival times are exponentially distributed and follow joint multivariate extreme value distributions. It is shown that such processes may arise via natural generating procedures, and that, under very weak assumptions, that they can be approximated as closely as desired by appropriate finite models.     

Iterative Estimation of the Extreme Value Index

Let {X_n, n ≥ 1} be a sequence of independent random variables with common continuous distribution function F having finite and unknown upper endpoint. A new iterative estimation procedure for the extreme value index γ is proposed and one implemented iterative estimator is investigated in detail, which is asymptotically as good as the uniform minimum varianced unbiased estimator in an ideal model. Moreover, the superiority of the iterative estimator over its non iterated counterpart in the non asymptotic case is shown in a simulation study.AMS 2000 Subject Classification: 62G32Supported by Swiss National Science foundation.     

Attenuation and depolarization of millimeter waves due to incoherent scattering in tropical rainfall

The radiative transfer equation has been applied to investigate the effects of multiple scattering on communication at the millimeter wavelength in tropical rain. Horizontal linearly polarized incident waves are assumed. The scattering characteristics are calculated using the Mie theory at frequencies of 16, 34.8, 82, 140 and and at rainfall rates of 12.5, 50 and . Some results of the directional patterns of the incoherent intensities at various points in the rain medium are presented. The frequency dependence of the propagation distance, attenuation coefficient and the variation of incoherent specific intensities in tropical rainfall are investigated. The incoherent power at the receiver relative to the coherent power, which is important in assessing the quality of signal in the receiver, is also investigated. It is observed that the maximum incoherent copolarized received power is about in tropical rainfall at rainfall rate. Also the difference between the copolarized incoherent power in tropical and temperate rainfall is about at frequencies higher than , and about for the cross-polarized incoherent power components. It may therefore be safely said that multiple scattering may not result in serious degradation of the coherent wave component even in the most intense tropical precipitation. It also appears that it is independent of regional rainfall climatology.