基于交通出行行为的郑焦城际公交客流预测

通过统计分析郑焦城际公交乘客的个人属性和出行信息,选择灰色模型对客流进行建模、预测和精度检验,得到模型的平均相对误差为3.98%,精度为96.02%,较好地满足了精度要求。该研究为郑焦城际公交的组织优化提供了理论依据和技术支持。     

移动交界面流固耦合传热的数值稳定性分析

研究了交界面移动情况下流固耦合稳态传热的数值稳定性问题.考虑Dirichlet-Robin组合边界条件,用速度表征交界面的移动情况,流体域和固体域分别采用有限体积法和有限单元法进行离散及数值求解,利用Goudonov-Ryabenkii理论正则模态分析方法重点研究了交界面移动时数值方法的稳定性,最终获得了一条由耦合系数和移动速度组成的最优曲线,并且证明了当耦合系数和移动速度在这条曲线上取值时,离散的求解域能够达到最快的收敛速度及绝对的稳定性特征.为设计人员进行数值仿真时选取合理的参数提供了参考.     

灰色Verhulst神经网络组合预测区域空域流量

能够对区域空域的流量做出准确的预测,可以为空中交通管理部门协调航班运行,减缓空域内航路的拥堵提供重要依据.运用灰色Verhulst模型与神经网络的组合模型对区域航班流量进行预测,并结合华东地区飞行流量的数据样本训练并测试模型.结果显示,由组合模型得出的流量预测值与实际值较吻合,说明组合模型比单种预测方法能够更为准确地对区域空域流量做出预测.     

Concurrent combined verification: reducing false positives in automated NMR structure verification through the evaluation of multiple challenge control structures

Automated structure verification using ¹H NMR data or a combination of ¹H and heteronuclear single‐quantum correlation (HSQC) data is gaining more interest as a routine application for qualitative evaluation of large compound libraries produced by synthetic chemistry. The goal of this automated software method is to identify a manageable subset of compounds and data that require human review. In practice, the automated method will flag structure and data combinations that exhibit some inconsistency (i.e. strange chemical shifts, conflicts in multiplicity, or overestimated and underestimated integration values) and validate those that appear consistent. One drawback of this approach is that no automated system can guarantee that all passing structures are indeed correct structures. The major reason for this is that approaches using only ¹H or even ¹H and HSQC spectra often do not provide sufficient information to properly distinguish between similar structures. Therefore, current implementations of automated structure verification systems allow, in principle, false positive results. Presented in this work is a method that greatly reduces the probability of an automated validation system passing incorrect structures (i.e. false positives). This novel method was applied to automatically validate 127 non‐proprietary compounds from several commercial sources. Presented also is the impact of this approach on false positive and false negative results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Methylol‐functional benzoxazines as precursors for high‐performance thermoset polymers: Unique simultaneous addition and condensation polymerization behavior

A new class of high‐performance resins of combined molecular structure of both traditional phenolics and benzoxazines has been developed. The monomers termed as methylol‐functional benzoxazines were synthesized through Mannich condensation reaction of methylol‐functional phenols and aromatic amines, including methylenedianiline (4,4′‐diaminodiphenylmethane) and oxydianiline (4,4′‐diaminodiphenyl ether), in the presence of paraformaldehyde. For comparison, other series of benzoxazine monomers were prepared from phenol, corresponding aromatic amines, and paraformaldehyde. The as‐synthesized monomers are characterized by their high purity as judged from ¹H NMR and Fourier transform infrared spectra. Differential scanning calorimetric thermograms of the novel monomers show two exothermic peaks associated with condensation reaction of methylol groups and ring‐opening polymerization of benzoxazines. The position of methylol group relative to benzoxazine structure plays a significant role in accelerating polymerization. Viscoelastic and thermogravimetric analyses of the crosslinked polymers reveal high T_g (274–343 °C) and excellent thermal stability when compared with the traditional polybenzoxazines. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem, 2012     

Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms

Any decision-making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily requires a calibrated forecast. This article proposes new methods for empirically assessing forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the probabilistic forecast is given by an ensemble of equally probable forecast scenarios. Multivariate properties are mapped to a single dimension through a prerank function and the calibration is subsequently assessed visually through a histogram of the ranks of the observation’s preranks. Average ranking assigns a prerank based on the average univariate rank while band depth ranking employs the concept of functional band depth where the centrality of the observation within the forecast ensemble is assessed. Several simulation examples and a case study of temperature forecast trajectories at Berlin Tegel Airport in Germany demonstrate that both multivariate ranking methods can successfully detect various sources of miscalibration and scale efficiently to high-dimensional settings. Supplemental material in form of computer code is available online.     

基于Asp.net的通用数据填报系统的设计与实现

本文结合实际应用,详细阐述了一种基于Asp.net的通用数据填报系统的设计与实现。该系统能够对数据表字段进行任意定义,并动态生成相应数据存储、Excel模板及界面程序,从而更灵活的进行数据填报、查询和导出。解决了传统管理信息系统扩展性差的问题,具有一定的先进性、实用性。     

特殊条件下巷道锚索支护结构与参数研究

现场采集五家沟矿5#煤层及顶板煤岩试样,实验室测定其力学参数。运用数值模拟方法,研究简式桁架锚索与单体锚索不同组合结构围岩控制效果,得出厚煤顶块裂煤巷简式桁架锚索关键支护参数。结合工程类比法设计5#煤层辅运大巷简式桁架锚索与单体锚索"交错布置"组合支护方案。实测顶底板相对移近量152 mm、两帮移近量125 mm,围岩控制效果良好。     

Efficient monooleoyl glycerol synthesis employing hybrid ultrasonic-infrared-wave promoted reactor: Concurrent catalytic and noncatalytic esterification kinetics

For the first time, intensification of monooleoyl glycerol (MOG) synthesis has been investigated in an ultrasonic-infrared-wave (USIRW) promoted batch reactor. Esterification of octadecanoic acid (ODA) with glycerol (Gl) has been conducted [using Amberlyst 36 wet catalyst] in three different reactors, namely traditional batch reactor (TBR), infrared wave promoted batch reactor (IRWPBR), and USIRW-promoted batch reactor (USIRWPBR) to assess the relative efficacy. The energy-efficient USIRWPBR remarkably intensifies the ODA-Gl esterification as manifested through superior ODA conversion (92.5 ± 1.25%) compared to that achieved in IRWPBR (79.8 ± 1.2%) and TBR (36.39 ± 1.25%). The most favorable reaction condition for optimum ODA conversion and maximum MOG yield was identified through statistical optimization over a selected parametric range, namely 3-5 Gl/ODA mole ratio, 0.004-0.006 g/mL Amberlyst 36 catalyst concentration, 300-700 rpm impeller speed, and 333-353 K reaction temperature. The present study also reports the formulation and validation of an innovative reaction kinetics, that is, concurrent noncatalytic and heterogeneously catalyzed (CNCHC) reaction mechanism in addition to the conventional heterogeneous kinetic models (LH and Eley-Rideal mechanisms). Under combined USIRW, the CNCHC esterification mechanism could best describe ODA-Gl esterification (R² = 0.98) compared to LH (R² = 0.97) and Eley-Rideal (R² = 0.88) mechanisms. The optimal product (MOG) was characterized by differential scanning calorimetry and thermogravimetric analysis to assess its crystallization property and thermal stability for possible application as plasticizer/fuel additives.