Statistical Inference with Fractional Brownian Motion

We give a test between two complex hypothesis; namely we test whether a fractional Brownian motion (fBm) has a linear trend against a certain non-linear trend. We study some related questions, like goodness-of-fit test and volatility estimation in these models.     

基于k-分辨-FB级数展开的多分量LFM信号分离

针对傅里叶-贝塞尔变换(FBT)难以估计和有效分离多分量LFM信号的问题,提出了一种k分辨-FB(k-FB)级数展开结合dechirp的信号分离与估计算法。在FB级数的基础上引入k分辨参数,通过理论推导,得出了信号频率与级数的关系,证明了参数估计精度与k取值正相关。通过解线频调和k-FB级数计算,实现了信号分离重构和参数估计。在不同信噪比、信号功率比和k分辨条件下对信号的分离精度进行了仿真研究,并与基于分数阶傅里叶变换(FrFT)的方法进行了对比。仿真结果验证了算法的有效性。     

IFS-BN结合的辐射源威胁评估方法

针对辐射源威胁评估实时性、复杂性和信息不确定性的问题,将直觉模糊集与贝叶斯网络相结合,提出一种基于IFS-BN的辐射源威胁评估方法。IFS-BN算法通过直觉模糊集刻画贝叶斯网络的节点信息,充分描述节点信息的确定性,不确定性以及犹豫度。同时,将直觉模糊集求得的各辐射源先验概率代入贝叶斯网络模型之中,得出后验概率进行威胁等级排序,并在此基础上建立了相应的评估指标体系。仿真分析表明,算法具有较好的可行性与有效性。与经典贝叶斯网络评估方法相比,IFS-BN算法的结果更加客观合理。     

借助Matlab遗传算法反演火山区压力源参数

首先分析了Mogi模型的经典最小二乘反演由于出现矩阵奇异或接近奇异而发散的局限性,决定采用具有全局高效搜索性和优化计算时不需要求导的遗传算法来反演火山区压力源参数。反演程序调用Matlab7.0 Release14工具箱中的选择、交叉和变异等相关程序。最后应用该程序和长白山天池火山区水准和GPS观测资料联合反演火山区压力源参数,经过比较遗传算法和阻尼最小二乘方法的反演结果,可看出2种方法结果近似,可见此方法方便快捷地实现了目标函数的最小化。     

一个线性约束优化问题的广义梯度投影法

本文对线性约束优化问题提出了一个新的广义梯度投影法，该算法采用了非精确线性搜索，并在每次迭代运算中结合了广义投影矩阵和变尺度方法的思想确定其搜索方向．在通常的假设条件下，证明了该算法的整体收敛性和超线性收敛速度．     

Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

量子算法的NMR实现方法

量子计算机是一种以量子耦合方式进行信息处理的装置[1 ] 。原则上 ,它能利用量子相干干涉方法以比传统计算机更快的速度进行诸如大数的因式分解、未排序数据库中的数据搜索等工作[2 ] 。建造大型量子计算机的主要困难是噪音、去耦和制造工艺。一方面 ,虽然离子陷阱和光学腔实验方法大有希望 ,但这些方法都还没有成功实现过量子计算。另一方面 ,因为隔离于自然环境 ,核自旋可以成为很好的“量子比特” ,可能以非传统方式使用核磁共振 (NMR)技术实现量子计算。本文介绍一种用NMR方法实现量子计算的方法 ,该方法能够用比传统方法少的步骤解决一个纯数学问题。基于该方法的简单量子计算机使用比传统计算机使用更少的函数“调用”判断一未知函数的类别。     

Numerical analysis of turbulent structure in compound meandering open channel by algebraic Reynolds stress model

The turbulent flow in a compound meandering channel with a rectangular cross section is one of the most complicated turbulent flows, because the flow behaviour is influenced by several kinds of forces, including centrifugal forces, pressure‐driven forces and shear stresses generated by momentum transfer between the main channel and the flood plain. Numerical analysis has been performed for the fully developed turbulent flow in a compound meandering open‐channel flow using an algebraic Reynolds stress model. The boundary‐fitted coordinate system is introduced as a method for coordinate transformation in order to set the boundary conditions along the complicated shape of the meandering open channel. The turbulence model consists of transport equations for turbulent energy and dissipation, in conjunction with an algebraic stress model based on the Reynolds stress transport equations. With reference to the pressure–strain term, we have made use of a modified pressure–strain term. The boundary condition of the fluctuating vertical velocity is set to zero not only for the free surface, but also for computational grid points next to the free surface, because experimental results have shown that the fluctuating vertical velocity approaches zero near the free surface. In order to examine the validity of the present numerical method and the turbulent model, the calculated results are compared with experimental data measured by laser Doppler anemometer. In addition, the compound meandering open channel is clarified somewhat based on the calculated results. As a result of the analysis, the present algebraic Reynolds stress model is shown to be able to reasonably predict the turbulent flow in a compound meandering open channel. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

（BN）n及SiB（n-1）Nn（n=2-11）稳定结构的研究

利用遗传算法及Gastreich提出的经验势函数,研究了（BN）n（n=2-11）和SiBn-1Nn（n=2-11）团簇的可能稳定结构,对能量较低的异构体在HF/STO-3G水平进行优化,得到了（BN）n（n=2-11）和SiBn-1Nn（n=2-11）团簇稳定结构单环及线状结构,并进一步分析了单环的结构特征及相对稳定性。     

遗传算法模式理论研究

给出了多种交叉方式遗传算法的模式定理及相关的证明.该定理避免了遗传算法模式理论的不足,使模式理论更加准确、严格.