Sea surface temperature records of core ZY2 from the central mud area in the South Yellow Sea during last 6200 years and related effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current

Sea surface temperature (SST) records in the South Yellow Sea during the last 6200 years are reconstructed by the unsaturation index of long-chain alkenones (K 37 U ’) in sediment core ZY2 from the central mud area.The SST records varied between 14.1 and 16.5°C (15.6°C on average),with 3 phases:(1) A high SST phase at 6.2-5.9 cal ka BP;(2) A low and intensely fluctuating SST phase at 5.9-2.3 cal ka BP;and (3) A high and stable SST phase since 2.3 cal ka BP.Variation of the SST records is similar to intensity of the Kuroshio Current (KC),and corresponds well in time to global cold climate events.However,the amplitude of the SST response to cooling events was significantly different in different phases.The SST response to global cooling event was weak while the KC was strong;and the SST response was strong while the KC was weak.The difference in amplitude of the SST response is possibly caused by the modulation effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current which acts as a shelf branch of the KC and a compensating current induced by the East Asia winter monsoon.The warm waters brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current cushion the SST decrease induced by climate cooling,and both the Kuroshio and East Asian winter monsoon play important roles in the modulation mechanism.The SST records display a periodicity of 1482 years.The same period was found in the KC records,indicating that variation of the SST records in the central South Yellow Sea is strongly affected by KC intensity.The same period was also found in Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic and Arabian Sea sediment cores,showing a regional response of marine environmental variability in the East China Seas to that in the global oceans.     

Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model

Variations in global atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium are simulated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. The model was driven by reconstructions of both natural forcing (solar variability and volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol). The model results are compared against proxy reconstruction data. The reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was out of phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the last millennium. During the ...     

The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change

A method is introduced in this paper to study the effect of future climatic change on the economy. The researchers determine the economic output of climate change from historical data, and provide a method to quantitatively predict economic output of climate change by an economic-climatic model. A historical reciprocating examination is used to analyze output data for various crops in eight agricultural areas in China and meteorological data from 160 observatories in China from 1980 to 2000. The results show that the methods used are reasonable to a certain extent and good in application.     

温室气体稳定目标下部门减排责任分解方法

为了探讨气候变化背景下温室气体排放权分摊机制这一研究难点,综述了温室气体减排责任分解方法的研究现状,遵循"共同但有区别的责任"思想并利用WRE稳定性廓线和IEA/SMP交通模型,开发了SMP-WRE模型。应用该模型建立了一种产业部门具体减排责任的分解方法,并以中国轻型车部门为例,展示了该方法的实现过程。结果表明:全球轻型车的基准排放是目标排放的2~4倍,说明轻型车部门实现450×10-6和550×10-6的CO2稳定水平难度很大。目标分解后的地区排放变化率欧美国家较小、中国较大,原因是欧美汽车市场规模饱和,而中国汽车正爆发式增加,排放增加不可避免。     

多层次降尺度方法对安徽省月降水量预测的研究

 利用1961～2004年多层次的NCEP环流资料初选出与台站月降水量的显著相关区,通过最优子集回归模型对各初选因子进行筛选和组合,形成了安徽省35个台站的月降水量回归模型,并分别利用NCEP资料和月动力延伸模式环流预报作为输入场对2005～2009年安徽省月降水量进行了回报.结果表明,该降尺度模型包含高低层的多种资料,各因子组合起来可以从统计上反映出一些影响降水的环流配置型,较传统的仅用500hPa资料的降尺度模型内容更为丰富.从回报的效果来看,预测值与实况值平均距平符号一致率为63%,PS评分为75分,其中对涝月的预测效果要好于旱月.     

基于熵值法的长株潭城市中心性研究

从城市的商贸、服务、空间作用、制造业和对外开放5个系统,选取了10个具有代表性的评价指标,采用2006-2008年长株潭城市群的相关数据,构建城市中心性评价指标体系,并运用熵值法时长株潭城市群中8个主要城市中心性进行了综合评价,并将长株潭3城市中心性的评判结果进行了分析,从而进一步对长株潭城市群城市中心性的特征和演变过...     

Bifurcation and disaggregation in urban/regional spatial modelling: A technical note

Using the Lowry-Garin model as an example, we illustrate the complexity of bifurcation and aggregation issues in urban/regional spatial systems. As a first step, a disaggregate version of the Lowry-Garin model is formulated. Then the general conditions for bifurcation are identified in terms of disaggregate labor-force participation rate, population-serving ratio and accessibility indices. Physical interpretation of these conditions is also given.     

寒地城市突发公共卫生事件应对的规划响应

在全球气候变化的背景下,特殊的气候条件引发的城市突发公共卫生事件不容忽视.城市规划是政府确保公共卫生安全的重要手段,从城市规划角度预防及控制气候变化带来的突发公共卫生事件并作出一定的规划响应,对于提升寒地城市居民健康水平具有重要意义.以寒地城市为例,分析了地域气候特征对突发公共卫生事件的影响,结合城乡人口空间分布、土地...     

Global vegetation change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years①

Vegetation cover change is critical for understanding impacts and responses of vegetation to climate change. A study found that vegetation in the regions between 45°N-70°N was increasing using normalized difference vegetation index( NDVI) from 1981 to 1991 ten years ago. The global vegetation growth has changed because of climate change in recent twelve years( 2001- 2012). After thorough analysis based on satellite data,it is found that it is evident that the global vegetation changed( NDVI) little,and it is increasing slightly in Northern hemisphere while it is decreasing slightly in Southern Hemisphere. For different latitudes,vegetation is increasing 0.17% every year from 60°N to 70 °N( R~2= 0.47,P 0.013),while the vegetation is decreasing 0.11% every year from 10°N to 10° S( R~2= 0.54,P 0.004). For different continents,the vegetation in South America is decreasing 0.16% every year( R~2= 0.78,P 0.0001) and it is increasing 0.05% every year in Asia( R~2= 0.28,P 0.072) and 0.25% every year in Oceania( R~2= 0.24,P 0.1). The analysis of global vegetation in different seasons indicates that spatial distribution of global temperature and water vapor will affect the spatial distribution of vegetation,in turn,the spatial distribution of vegetation will also regulate the global temperature and water vapor spatial distribution at large scale. The growth and distribution of vegetation are mainly caused by the orbit of the celestial bodies,and a big data model based on gravitational-magmatic change with the solar or the galactic system as its center is proposed to be built for analyzing how the earth's orbit position in the solar and galaxy system affects spatial-temporal variations of global vegetation and temperature at large scale. These findings promise a holistic understanding of the global climate change and potential underlying mechanisms.