Foregone with the Wind: Indirect Payoff Information and its Implications for Choice

Examination of the effect of information concerning foregone payoffs on choice behavior reveals a complex pattern. Depending on the environment, this information can facilitate or impair maximization. Our study of nine experimental tasks suggests that the complex pattern can be summarized with the assumption that initially people tend to be highly sensitive, and sometimes too sensitive, to recent foregone payoffs. However, over time, people can learn to adjust their sensitivity depending on the environment they are facing. The implications of this observation to models of human adaptation and to problems of mechanism design are discussed.We thank Nick Feltovich, Ernan Haruvy, Rosemarie Nagel and Rajiv Sarin for helpful comments and suggestions. This research was initiated while the first author was visiting the Technion in Haifa. We very much appreciate the hospitality of the Minerva Center.     

戏师叙事的舞台检阅——论布依戏侗戏的昆明观摩

1984年首届全国少数民族戏剧协会在昆明召开,布依戏戏师罗仕华、冯景林的《罗细杏》,侗戏戏师杨成林、张勇的《丁郎龙女》参加汇演,接受来自全国戏曲界的专家学者检阅与考证,与会人员从戏师编剧、舞台演出、剧团等方面提出见解与看法,对贵州少数民族戏剧戏师叙事的策略路径具有现实意义.     

城市拆迁管理过程中利益共同体的合谋行为研究

本文就城市拆迁中相关政府部门与开发商之间的合谋行为进行了理论研究，通过建立城市拆迁监管当局与开发商之间基于利益共同体的跨时博奕模型，分析了城市拆迁监管的部门特征及城市拆迁中反腐斗争的理论框架。基本的结论是，作为共谋利益的供给者，开发商存在两类行贿行为。政府拆迁主管部门的受贿行为也相应分为两类。并且，拆迁管理过程中合谋程度与政府主管部门权力介入市场的直接程度有关，能够直接决定拆迁收益的监管部门被侵蚀的可能性越大。     

On the probability of Magnus Carlsen reaching 2900

How likely is it that Magnus Carlsen will achieve his goal of a 2900 Elo rating? At what level of play does Magnus have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2900 goal? These two questions are of great current interest to Magnus and the chess community. The probabilistic properties of Elo's rating system are well known, and together with a Brownian motion model of rating evolution, we use simulation-based methods to address these questions. Our model assesses that Magnus has a 4.5% chance of reaching 2900 if he continues his 2020–2022 level of play. However, this increases dramatically to $80$% chance if he can repeat his hot streak performance of 2019 which is not an easy undertaking. The probabilities are intimately related to Elo's choice $K$-factor used for grandmaster chess play. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of the policy issues involved with the choice of $K$-factor.