Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models

Despite the large cost of bodily injury (BI) claims in motor insurance, relatively little research has been done in this area. Many companies estimate (and therefore reserve) bodily injury compensation directly from initial medical reports. This practice may underestimate the final cost, because the severity is often assessed during the recovery period. Since the evaluation of this severity is often only qualitative, in this paper we apply an ordered multiple choice model at different moments in the life of a claim reported to an insurance company. We assume that the information available to the insurer does not flow continuously, because it is obtained at different stages. Using a real data set, we show that the application of sequential ordered logit models leads to a significant improvement in the prediction of the BI severity level, compared to the subjective classification that is used in practice. We also show that these results could improve the insurer’s reserves notably.     

X分形晶格上Gauss模型的临界性质

采用实空间重整化群变换的方法,研究了2维和d(d>2)维X分形晶格上Gauss模型的临界性质.结果表明:这种晶格与其他分形晶格一样,在临界点处,其最近邻相互作用参量也可以表示为K=bqiqi(qi是格点i的配位数,bqi是格点i上自旋取值的Gauss分布常数)的形式;其关联长度临界指数v与空间维数d(或分形维数df)有关.这与Ising模型的结果存在很大的差异. 关键词： X分形晶格 重整化群 Gauss模型 临界性质     

Sn-C60薄膜的紫外吸收光谱和X-射线衍射谱分析

对Sn-C60薄膜进行紫外可见光吸收，X-射线衍射和扫描电镜的测定结果显示，薄膜样品紫外可见光吸收的两个短波段吸收峰比纯C60薄膜的吸收峰显著下降，说明Sn-C60薄膜的电子光吸收跃迁为间接跃迁，能带中有杂质能级的存在；样品的X射线衍射峰则对应于面心立方结构；扫描电镜结果显示薄膜为纳米级颗粒组成。     

A nondifferentiable extension of a theorem of Pucci and Serrin and applications

We study the multiplicity of critical points for functionals which are only differentiable along some directions. We extend to this class of functionals the three critical point theorem of Pucci and Serrin and we apply it to a one-parameter family of functionals Jλ, λ∈I⊂R. Under suitable assumptions, we locate an open subinterval of values λ in I for which Jλ possesses at least three critical points. Applications to quasilinear boundary value problems are also given.     

An Enumerative Geometry for Magic and Magilatin Labellings

A magic labelling of a set system is a labelling of its points by distinct positive integers so that every set of the system has the same sum, the magic sum. Examples are magic squares (the sets are the rows, columns, and diagonals) and semimagic squares (the same, but without the diagonals). A magilatin labelling is like a magic labelling but the values need be distinct only within each set. We show that the number of n × n magic or magilatin labellings is a quasipolynomial function of the magic sum, and also of an upper bound on the entries in the square. Our results differ from previous ones because we require that the entries in the square all be different from each other, and because we derive our results not by ad hoc reasoning but from a general theory of counting lattice points in rational inside-out polytopes. We also generalize from set systems to rational linear forms. Dedicated to the memory of Claudia Zaslavsky, 1917–2006 Received August 10, 2005     

Navier-Stokes equations in 3D thin domains with Navier friction boundary condition

In this article we study the 3D Navier-Stokes equations with Navier friction boundary condition in thin domains. We prove the global existence of strong solutions to the 3D Navier-Stokes equations when the initial data and external forces are in large sets as the thickness of the domain is small. We generalize the techniques developed to study the 3D Navier-Stokes equations in thin domains, see [G. Raugel, G. Sell, Navier-Stokes equations on thin 3D domains I: Global attractors and global regularity of solutions, J. Amer. Math. Soc. 6 (1993) 503-568; G. Raugel, G. Sell, Navier-Stokes equations on thin 3D domains II: Global regularity of spatially periodic conditions, in: Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations and Their Application, College de France Seminar, vol. XI, Longman, Harlow, 1994, pp. 205-247; R. Temam, M. Ziane, Navier-Stokes equations in three-dimensional thin domains with various boundary conditions, Adv. Differential Equations 1 (1996) 499-546; R. Temam, M. Ziane, Navier-Stokes equations in thin spherical shells, in: Optimization Methods in Partial Differential Equations, in: Contemp. Math., vol. 209, Amer. Math. Soc., Providence, RI, 1996, pp. 281-314], to the Navier friction boundary condition by introducing a new average operator Mε in the thin direction according to the spectral decomposition of the Stokes operator Aε. Our analysis hinges on the refined investigation of the eigenvalue problem corresponding to the Stokes operator Aε with Navier friction boundary condition.     

Bias of the structural quasi-score estimator of a measurement error model under misspecification of the regressor distribution

In a structural measurement error model the structural quasi-score (SQS) estimator is based on the distribution of the latent regressor variable. If this distribution is misspecified, the SQS estimator is (asymptotically) biased. Two types of misspecification are considered. Both assume that the statistician erroneously adopts a normal distribution as his model for the regressor distribution. In the first type of misspecification, the true model consists of a mixture of normal distributions which cluster around a single normal distribution, in the second type, the true distribution is a normal distribution admixed with a second normal distribution of low weight. In both cases of misspecification, the bias, of course, tends to zero when the size of misspecification tends to zero. However, in the first case the bias goes to zero in a flat way so that small deviations from the true model lead to a negligible bias, whereas in the second case the bias is noticeable even for small deviations from the true model.     

Tropical Weyl Group Action via Point Configurations and τ-Functions of the q-Painlevé Equations

Starting from certain point sets in the projective plane, we construct a tropical (or subtraction-free birational) representation of Weyl groups over the field of τ-functions. In particular, our construction includes E ₈ ⁽¹⁾ , E ₇ ⁽¹⁾ , E ₆ ⁽¹⁾ and D ₅ ⁽¹⁾ as affine cases; each of them gives rise to the q-difference Painlevé equation.     

The inverse scattering problem for Schrödinger and Klein–Gordon equations with a nonlocal nonlinearity

We study the inverse scattering problem for the nonlinear Schrödinger equation and for the nonlinear Klein–Gordon equation with the generalized Hartree type nonlinearity. We reconstruct the nonlinearity from knowledge of the scattering operator, which improves the known results.