清末泰山信仰在海岱间的传布——以青山碧霞宫与大泽山日照庵为中心

就山东一境而言,泰山崇拜和碧霞元君信仰在海岱之间自西向东传布。据目前所掌握的资料,泰山信仰传布的力度从明代至清前期渐趋增长,而自光绪末年至民国却是一个转折。本文选定青山碧霞宫与大泽山日照庵两座庙宇作为研究中心,来探讨泰山信仰清末民初在泰山到滨海一线的传布情况。泰山信仰在海岱之间传布过程中,受到空间距离、地域文化等客观因素的制约,呈涟漪状,以泰山为中心,越趋向边缘（边远）地区,影响力越弱;即使有稳定文化内核的碧霞元君信仰,也经受了诸多损益,多种神灵品格层累而至于在青山庙宇出现相互矛盾的几个碧霞元君,在大泽山也经历了从碧霞元君到无生老母的主神转变。     

畲汉陈十四信仰的比较研究

陈十四信仰在畲汉两族的生活中扮演了重要角色,畲汉两族在陈十四传说的内容与陈十四信仰的形式上体现了同质性,但在陈十四传说的口述形式、记录文本以及民众对陈十四信仰的艺术展演上则表现出异质性.共同的心理诉求是畲汉两族对陈十四信仰趋同的重要因素;畲族对汉族强势文化的认同是畲汉两族陈十四信仰同质性的中坚力量;畲族民族意识的延续是畲汉两族陈十四信仰异质性的核心原因.     

Comments on “Statistical reasoning with set-valued information: Ontic vs. epistemic view” by Inés Couso and Didier Dubois

I discuss some aspects of the distinction between ontic and epistemic views of sets as representation of imprecise or incomplete information. In particular, I consider its implications on imprecise probability representations: credal sets and sets of desirable gambles. It is emphasized that the interpretation of the same mathematical object can be different depending on the point of view from which this element is considered. In the case of a fuzzy information on a random variable, it is possible to define a possibility distribution on the simplex of probability distributions. I add some comments about the properties of this possibility distribution.     

Sum-based weighted belief base merging: From commensurable to incommensurable framework

Different methods have been proposed for merging multiple and potentially conflicting information. The merging process based on the so-called “Sum” operation offers a natural method for merging commensurable prioritized belief bases. Their popularity is due to the fact that they satisfy the majority property and they adopt a non-cautious attitude in deriving plausible conclusions.This paper analyzes the sum-based merging operator when sources to merge are incommensurable, namely when they do not share the same meaning of uncertainty scales. We first show that the obtained merging operator can be equivalently characterized either in terms of an infinite set of compatible scales, or by a well-known Pareto ordering on a set of propositional logic interpretations. We also study some restrictions on compatible scales based on different commensurability hypothesis.Moreover, this paper provides a postulate-based analysis of our merging operators. We show that when prioritized bases to merge are not commensurable, the majority property is no longer satisfied. We provide conditions to recovering it. We also analyze the fairness postulate, which represents the unique postulate unsatisfied when belief bases to merge are commensurable and we propose a new postulate of consensuality. This postulate states that the result of the merging process must be consensual. It obtains the consent of all parties by integrating a piece of belief of each base.Finally, in the incommensurable case, we show that the fairness and consensuality postulates are satisfied when all compatible scales are considered. However, we provide an impossibility theorem stating that there is no way to satisfy fairness and consensuality postulates if only one canonical compatible scale is considered.     

Inclusion–exclusion principle for belief functions

The inclusion–exclusion principle is a well-known property in probability theory, and is instrumental in some computational problems such as the evaluation of system reliability or the calculation of the probability of a Boolean formula in diagnosis. However, in the setting of uncertainty theories more general than probability theory, this principle no longer holds in general. It is therefore useful to know for which families of events it continues to hold. This paper investigates this question in the setting of belief functions. After exhibiting original sufficient and necessary conditions for the principle to hold, we illustrate its use on the uncertainty analysis of Boolean and non-Boolean systems in reliability.     

海峡两岸妈祖文化互动交流意义及其发展展望

论述妈祖文化是海峡两岸文化互动交流的重要载体，两岸妈祖文化互动交流是增强文化认同的桥梁纽带之一，分析海峡两岸妈祖文化互动交流意义，对两岸妈祖文化互动交流的发展前景作了进一步的展望。     

Improvements to message computation in lazy propagation

Even though existing algorithms for belief update in Bayesian networks (BNs) have exponential time and space complexity, belief update in many real-world BNs is feasible. However, in some cases the efficiency of belief update may be insufficient. In such cases minor improvements in efficiency may be important or even necessary to make a task tractable. This paper introduces two improvements to the message computation in Lazy propagation (LP): (1) we introduce myopic methods for sorting the operations involved in a variable elimination using arc-reversal and (2) extend LP with the any-space property. The performance impacts of the methods are assessed empirically.     

A decision theory for partially consonant belief functions

Partially consonant belief functions (pcb), studied by Walley, are the only class of Dempster-Shafer belief functions that are consistent with the likelihood principle of statistics. Structurally, the set of foci of a pcb is partitioned into non-overlapping groups and within each group, foci are nested. The pcb class includes both probability function and Zadeh’s possibility function as special cases. This paper studies decision making under uncertainty described by pcb. We prove a representation theorem for preference relation over pcb lotteries to satisfy an axiomatic system that is similar in spirit to von Neumann and Morgenstern’s axioms of the linear utility theory. The closed-form expression of utility of a pcb lottery is a combination of linear utility for probabilistic lottery and two-component (binary) utility for possibilistic lottery. In our model, the uncertainty information, risk attitude and ambiguity attitude are separately represented. A tractable technique to extract ambiguity attitude from a decision maker behavior is also discussed.     

Belief functions combination without the assumption of independence of the information sources

This paper considers the problem of combining belief functions obtained from not necessarily independent sources of information. It introduces two combination rules for the situation in which no assumption is made about the dependence of the information sources. These two rules are based on cautious combinations of plausibility and commonality functions, respectively. The paper studies the properties of these rules and their connection with Dempster’s rules of conditioning and combination and the minimum rule of possibility theory.     

Defining belief functions using mathematical morphology – Application to image fusion under imprecision

We address in this paper the problem of defining belief functions, typically for multi-source classification applications in image processing. We propose to use mathematical morphology for introducing imprecision in the mass and belief functions while estimating disjunctions of hypotheses. The basic idea relies on the similarity between some properties of morphological operators and properties of belief functions. The framework of mathematical morphology guarantees that the derived functions have all required properties. We illustrate the proposed approach on synthetic and real images.