Improved customer choice predictions using ensemble methods

In this paper various ensemble learning methods from machine learning and statistics are considered and applied to the customer choice modeling problem. The application of ensemble learning usually improves the prediction quality of flexible models like decision trees and thus leads to improved predictions. We give experimental results for two real-life marketing datasets using decision trees, ensemble versions of decision trees and the logistic regression model, which is a standard approach for this problem. The ensemble models are found to improve upon individual decision trees and outperform logistic regression.     

Kinetic features of ethylene polymerization over supported catalysts [2,6‐bis(imino)pyridyl iron dichloride/magnesium dichloride] with AlR3 as an activator

The effects of polymerization temperature, polymerization time, ethylene and hydrogen concentration, and effect of comonomers (hexene‐1, propylene) on the activity of supported catalyst of composition LFeCl₂/MgCl₂‐Al(i‐Bu)₃ (L = 2,6‐bis[1‐(2,6‐dimethylphenylimino)ethyl] pyridyl) and polymer characteristics (molecular weight (MW), molecular‐weight distribution (MWD), molecular structure) have been studied. Effective activation energy of ethylene polymerization over LFeCl₂/MgCl₂‐Al(i‐Bu)₃ has a value typical of supported Ziegler–Natta catalysts (11.9 kcal/mol). The polymerization reaction is of the first order with respect to monomer at the ethylene concentration >0.2 mol/L. Addition of small amounts of hydrogen (9–17%) significantly increases the activity; however, further increase in hydrogen concentration decreases the activity. The IRS and DSC analysis of PE indicates that catalyst LFeCl₂/MgCl₂‐Al(i‐Bu)₃ has a very low copolymerizing ability toward propylene and hexene‐1. MW and MWD of PE produced over these catalysts depend on the polymerization time, ethylene and hexene‐1 concentration. The activation effect of hydrogen and other kinetic features of ethylene polymerization over supported catalysts based on the Fe (II) complexes are discussed. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 5057–5066, 2007     

Asymptotic properties of an HIV/AIDS model with a time delay

A mathematical model for HIV/AIDS with explicit incubation period is presented as a system of discrete time delay differential equations and its important mathematical features are analysed. The disease-free and endemic equilibria are found and their local stability investigated. We use the Lyapunov functional approach to show the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, and persistence are also presented. The HIV/AIDS model is numerically analysed to asses the effects of incubation period on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS and the demographic impact of the epidemic using the demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe.     

一种新的$1/f$过程小波模型

给出了一种新的二进小波1/f过程模型,从理论上证明了一类谱指数为H的近似1/f过程可通过一簇平稳随机过程产生.由于所提方法利用了1/f过程小波系数的相关性,因而有效地减少了合成1/f过程的谱误差.数值实验结果表明,新模型很好地改进了已有模型.     

加强民间组织能力建设的有效途径

伴随着中国社会改革进程,民间组织发展迅速,并在经济建设和社会进步中发挥着越来越广泛的积极作用。但民间组织的整体素质和自律水平有待进一步提高,如何加强民间组织的能力建设,作者提出了中国民间组织能力建设的五方面的有效途径,供社会各界关心民间组织发展的人士共同探讨。     

B/S三层体系结构模式

随着WEB技术的迅速发展和应用,如何利用WEB技术,建立集主机-终端方式和C/S方式优点为一体的新的应用模式是计算模式研究的一个新课题.论及了Internet/Intranet环境下,B/S三层体系结构模式的构成、工作原理,从多方面对比分析了B/S与C/S模式的优劣,认为B/S模式是当今应用软件的首选体系结构.     

AdS/CFT duality at strong coupling

We study the strong-coupling limit of the AdS/CFT correspondence in the framework of a recently proposed fermionic formulation of the Bethe ansatz equations governing the gauge theory anomalous dimensions. We give examples of states that do not follow the Gubser-Klebanov-Polyakov law at a large ’t Hooft coupling λ, in contrast to recent results on the quantum string Bethe equations that are valid in that regime. This result indicates that the fermionic construction cannot be trusted at large λ, although it remains an efficient tool for computing the weak-coupling expansion of anomalous dimensions. Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 152, No. 2, pp. 213–224, August, 2007.     

巴旦杏中脂肪酸的测定

采用气相色谱仪进行定量分析，气－联质联用仪进行定性分析，巴旦杏中脂肪酸进行了测定，并探讨了样品处理方法和气－质联用仪的分析条件，得到了较为满意的分析结果。     

2‐Cyanoprop‐2‐yl dithiobenzoate mediated reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer polymerization of acrylonitrile targeting a polymer with a higher molecular weight

The reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization of acrylonitrile (AN) mediated by 2‐cyanoprop‐2‐yl dithiobenzoate was first applied to synthesize polyacrylonitrile (PAN) with a high molecular weight up to 32,800 and a polydispersity index as low as 1.29. The key to success was ascribed to the optimization of the experimental conditions to increase the fragmentation reaction efficiency of the intermediate radical. In accordance with the atom transfer radical polymerization of AN, ethylene carbonate was also a better solvent candidate for providing higher controlled/living RAFT polymerization behaviors than dimethylformamide and dimethyl sulfoxide. The various experimental parameters, including the temperature, the molar ratio of dithiobenzoate to the initiator, the molar ratio of the monomer to dithiobenzoate, the monomer concentration, and the addition of the comonomer, were varied to improve the control of the molecular weight and polydispersity index. The molecular weights of PANs were validated by gel permeation chromatography along with a universal calibration procedure and intrinsic viscosity measurements. ¹H NMR analysis confirmed the high chain‐end functionality of the resultant polymers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 1272–1281, 2007     

A duality relation for busy cycles inGI/G/1 queues

Using a generalization of the classical ballot theorem, Niu and Cooper [7] established a duality relation between the joint distribution of several variables associated with the busy cycle inM/G/1 (with a modified first service) and the corresponding joint distribution of several related variables in its dualGI/M/1. In this note, we generalize this duality relation toGI/G/1 queues with modified first services; this clarifies the original result, and shows that the generalized ballot theorem is superfluous for the duality relation.