Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation for Reinforced Markov Renewal Processes

Starting from the definitions and the properties of reinforced renewal processes and reinforced Markov renewal processes, we characterize, via exchangeability and de Finetti’s representation theorem, a prior that consists of a family of Dirichlet distributions on the space of Markov transition matrices and beta-Stacy processes on distribution functions. Then, we show that this family is conjugate and give some estimate results.

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Multivariate dynamic modeling for Bayesian forecasting of business revenue

Forecasting enterprise-wide revenue is critical to many companies and presents several challenges and opportunities for significant business impact. This case study is based on model developments to address these challenges for forecasting in a large-scale retail company. Focused on multivariate revenue forecasting across collections of supermarkets and product categories, hierarchical dynamic models are natural: these are able to couple revenue streams in an integrated forecasting model, while allowing conditional decoupling to enable relevant and sensitive analysis together with scalable computation. Structured models exploit multi-scale modeling to cascade information on price and promotion activities as predictors relevant across categories and groups of stores. With a context-relevant focus on forecasting revenue 12 weeks ahead, the study highlights product categories that benefit from multi-scale information, defines insights into when, how, and why multivariate models improve forecast accuracy, and shows how cross-category dependencies can relate to promotion decisions in one category impacting others. Bayesian modeling developments underlying the case study are accessible in custom code for interested readers.     

A directed topic model applied to call center improvement

We propose subject matter expert refined topic (SMERT) allocation, a generative probabilistic model applicable to clustering freestyle text. SMERT models are three‐level hierarchical Bayesian models in which each item is modeled as a finite mixture over a set of topics. In addition to discrete data inputs, we introduce binomial inputs. These ‘high‐level’ data inputs permit the ‘boosting’ or affirming of terms in the topic definitions and the ‘zapping’ of other terms. We also present a collapsed Gibbs sampler for efficient estimation. The methods are illustrated using real world data from a call center. Also, we compare SMERT with three alternative approaches and two criteria. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Zero Expectile Processes and Bayesian Spatial Regression

We introduce new classes of stationary spatial processes with asymmetric, sub-Gaussian marginal distributions using the idea of expectiles. We derive theoretical properties of the proposed processes. Moreover, we use the proposed spatial processes to formulate a spatial regression model for point-referenced data where the spatially correlated errors have skewed marginal distribution. We introduce a Bayesian computational procedure for model fitting and inference for this class of spatial regression models. We compare the performance of the proposed method with the traditional Gaussian process-based spatial regression through simulation studies and by applying it to a dataset on air pollution in California.     

Active Inference: Applicability to Different Types of Social Organization Explained through Reference to Industrial Engineering and Quality Management

Active inference is a physics of life process theory of perception, action and learning that is applicable to natural and artificial agents. In this paper, active inference theory is related to different types of practice in social organization. Here, the term social organization is used to clarify that this paper does not encompass organization in biological systems. Rather, the paper addresses active inference in social organization that utilizes industrial engineering, quality management, and artificial intelligence alongside human intelligence. Social organization referred to in this paper can be in private companies, public institutions, other for-profit or not-for-profit organizations, and any combination of them. The relevance of active inference theory is explained in terms of variational free energy, prediction errors, generative models, and Markov blankets. Active inference theory is most relevant to the social organization of work that is highly repetitive. By contrast, there are more challenges involved in applying active inference theory for social organization of less repetitive endeavors such as one-of-a-kind projects. These challenges need to be addressed in order for active inference to provide a unifying framework for different types of social organization employing human and artificial intelligence.     

Hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive models for large space–time data with applications to ozone concentration modelling

Increasingly large volumes of space–time data are collected everywhere by mobile computing applications, and in many of these cases, temporal data are obtained by registering events, for example, telecommunication or Web traffic data. Having both the spatial and temporal dimensions adds substantial complexity to data analysis and inference tasks. The computational complexity increases rapidly for fitting Bayesian hierarchical models, as such a task involves repeated inversion of large matrices. The primary focus of this paper is on developing space–time autoregressive models under the hierarchical Bayesian setup. To handle large data sets, a recently developed Gaussian predictive process approximation method is extended to include autoregressive terms of latent space–time processes. Specifically, a space–time autoregressive process, supported on a set of a smaller number of knot locations, is spatially interpolated to approximate the original space–time process. The resulting model is specified within a hierarchical Bayesian framework, and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to make inference. The proposed model is applied for analysing the daily maximum 8‐h average ground level ozone concentration data from 1997 to 2006 from a large study region in the Eastern United States. The developed methods allow accurate spatial prediction of a temporally aggregated ozone summary, known as the primary ozone standard, along with its uncertainty, at any unmonitored location during the study period. Trends in spatial patterns of many features of the posterior predictive distribution of the primary standard, such as the probability of noncompliance with respect to the standard, are obtained and illustrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semiparametric random coefficient regression models

Linear regression models with random coefficients express the idea that each individual sampled may have a different linear response function. Technically speaking, random coefficient regression encompasses a rich variety of submodels. These include deconvolution or affine-mixture models as well as certain classical linear regression models that have heteroscedastic errors, or errors-in-variables, or random effects. This paper studies minimum distance estimates for the coefficient distributions in a general, semiparametric, random coefficient regression model. The analysis yields goodness-of-fit tests for the semiparametric model, prediction regions for future responses, and confidence regions for the distribution of the random coefficients.This research was supported in part by NSF Grant DMS 9001710.     

Resolution of composite fuzzy relation equations based on Archimedean triangular norms

Lately, the sup-t-norm composition of fuzzy relations has been used instead of the well-known max–min. Thus, there is a need for methods of studying and solving sup-t-norm fuzzy relation equations (t is any t-norm). In this paper, the solution existence problem is first studied and solvability criteria for composite fuzzy relation equations of any t-norm are given. Then, a methodology for solving fuzzy relation equations based on sup-t composition, where t is an Archimedean t-norm, is proposed. This resolution method is simpler and faster than those proposed for covering all the continuous t-norms. The result is important, since, as is shown in the paper, the only continuous t-norm that is not Archimedean is the “minimum”.     

Some estimation theory on the sphere

Summary We consider distributions with densities of the formf(μ′x) andf(‖x _v ‖) where μ andx are unit vectors inR ^q and ‖x _v ‖ is the norm of the part ofx in somes dimensional subspaceV ofR ^q . For several loss functions, optimal Bayesian and Pitman estimators of μ andV are given. When uniform priors are used, these estimators are identical. Then the infinitesimal robustness characteristics of several special cases of these estimators are calculated.     

Bayesian approach to electron correlation in density functional theory

In the present communication we applied the Bayesian conditional probability approach to the wave function of a many‐electron system that resulted in the appearance of a quantum vector potential in the DFT Schrödinger equation due to electron correlation, apart from the correlation energy term. Mathematically, the effect of this vector potential is equivalent to a magnetic field that corresponds in particular to a conservative irrotational one if it is considered in connection with the correlation potential. An analysis of the effect of the correlation momentum on the electronic transitions suggested that the electron correlation increases the transition probability.