Temperature and precipitation in Mongolia based on dendroclimatic investigations

Recent tree-ring studies in Mongolia provide evidence of unusual warming that is in agreement with large-scal reconstructed and recorded temperaturec for the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic.One Mongolian proxy record for temperature extends back over 1000 years and several others are over 350 years in length.Precipitation reconstructions based on thee rings reflect recent increases but also indicate that the increases are within the long-term range of varlations.Spectral analyses of recorded preciplta-tion data and the reconstructions support the hypotheses of quasi-solar periodicity in precipitation variation,previously suggested by others.     

广西南流江流域降雨侵蚀力时空变化特征

降雨是区域土壤侵蚀的主要动力因素之一,估算和分析降雨侵蚀力是区域水土流失治理与评价的基础工作。利用南流江流域内各气象站点1961—2006年的日雨量资料,基于日雨量模型估算降雨侵蚀力,并通过趋势分析、小波分析和Kriging空间插值法,定量分析广西沿海红壤区南流江流域降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征与规律。结果显示,1961—2006年间,南流江流域年均降雨侵蚀力为13 935.5 MJ·mm·hm~(-2)·h~(-1)·a~(-1),年均降雨量为1 712.8mm,降雨侵蚀力变化周期约为14a。各年际和时间段间变化差异不明显,降雨侵蚀力年内集中分布在夏季,占比达57.0%,冬季最小,占比3.8%;在空间上,降雨侵蚀力与降雨量分布格局相似,呈现从西南沿海向东北内陆递减的趋势,行政区划上以钦南区和合浦县最大,北流市和玉州区最小。研究结果可为南流江流域土壤侵蚀风险和生态修复治理等工作提供一定的科学依据。     

基于HP-ENN-MC模型降雨量预测

综合HP滤波、Elman神经网络、马尔科夫链的优点建立HP-ENN-MC模型对某地区10年内降雨量进行预测.以某地区1990-2015年植物生育期(6-10月)的降雨量数据作为实验训练样本,以2010-2015年(6-10月)的降雨量数据为实验的测试样本,证明HP-ENN-MC模型的实用性.由最后实验结果得到,预测平均相对误差为3.83%.所建模型能够对降雨量准确预测,与Elman、ENN-MC模型相比,HP-ENN-MC模型对降雨量预测更有效.     

Effects of water and ice clouds on cloud microphysical budget:An equilibrium modeling study

The effects of water and ice clouds on the cloud microphysical budget associated with rainfall are investigated through the analysis of grid-scale data from a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model equilibrium sensitivity simulations. The model is imposed without large-scale vertical velocity. In the control experiment, the contribution from rainfall （cM） associated with net evaporation and hydrometeor loss/convergence is about 29% of that from the rainfall （Cm） associated with net condensation and hydrometeor gain/divergence and about 39% of that from the rainfall （CM） associated with net condensation and hydrometeor loss/convergence. The exclusion of ice clouds enhances rainfall contribution of CM, whereas it reduces rainfall contributions of Cm and cM. The removal of radiative effects of water clouds increases rainfall contribution of CM, barely changes rainfall contribution of Cm and reduces the rainfall contribution of cM in the presence of the radiative effects of ice clouds. Elimination of the radiative effects of water clouds reduces the rainfall contributions of CM and Cm, whereas it increases the rainfall contribution of cM in the absence of the radiative effects of ice clouds.     

青海湖地区近1 ka来气候变化机制

对区域性温度和降雨量变化特别是其驱动机制的理解有助于深入了解过去全球气候变化和预测未来.通过对青海湖沉积物中单一种属介形虫壳体胖真星介(Eucypris inflate)氧同位素组成结合已有的年代学数据,探讨了青海湖地区近1 ka来的气候变化机制.研究表明青海湖沉积物介形虫壳体δ18O主要反映了湖区干湿变化,而降雨量和干湿指数的负相关变化说明介形虫壳体δ18O可以用来指示湖区降雨量的变化,介形虫壳体δ18O值与太阳活动指标(大气14C和冰芯10Be含量)一致性变化表明青海湖地区降雨量的变化主要是受太阳活动控制的.     

震后滑坡地表时空演化过程与规律——以汶川地震滑坡银洞子滑坡为例

为揭示地震效应下震区松散滑坡堆积体地表演化过程的时间变异和空间分布规律,本文以5·12汶川地震极震区—白沙河流域的银洞子滑坡为例,通过野外取样调查、无人机航拍以及多时相卫星遥感影像差分,分析了该滑坡堆积体在震后10年的空间及地表演化过程。结果表明：滑坡活动频率呈震荡式衰减,震后5年内为滑坡极度活跃期;滑坡失稳地表过程首先是降雨条件下表层较松散的土体随地表径流发生运移,随后地表侵蚀作用下逐渐形成坡面侵蚀拉槽,最后发展为以堆积体前缘的牵引式浅层滑坡为主。通过定量分析堆积体失稳区土体级配组成,发现粗颗粒（≥2mm）百分含量增加,具有明显的粗化现象。最后结合灾害事件的触发降雨量初步提出了触发日降雨量演化模型。四次典型滑坡事件特征与研究区震后10年地表时空演化过程基本一致。本研究旨在为汶川震区震后地质灾害的长期防控提供参考和基础。     

加权马尔可夫链在保定地区降雨量预测中的应用

根据保定地区1960-2010年的年降雨资料,采用均值-标准差分级法,并以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权,建立加权马尔可夫链预测模型对保定地区年降雨量进行预测,模型验证的结果与实际数据相符,预测精度较高,为保定地区年降雨量的预测提供了一条值得探索的途径.     

基于地统计学的山区气象要素空间化方法探索——以广西年均降雨量为例

采用地统计学的克里格插值方法对广西多年平均降雨量进行空间化处理,具体探索了普通克里格、泛克里格与协同克里格插值方法。与普通克里格法、泛克里格法相比,协同克里格法增加了相关因素（纬度、离海岸线的距离、DEM）对降雨量的影响,在应用中更具潜力。地统计插值可以通过交叉验证和验证对话框中的4个指标,以及实测值与预测值的比较评定精度。三种方法综合比较,协同克里格方法最适合广西多年平均降雨量的空间化。     

Influence of the Southern Hemispheric Circulation on East-west Oscillation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High

The western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） is a large-scale circulation system in the subtropics during the boreal summer. Since 1950＇s, Chinese meteorologists have done a lot of studies about WPSH and recognized its influence on summer rainfall in China. For instance,the north-south movement of WPSH is related to the movement of the rain-belt in eastern China,