Bayesian analysis of lymphatic spreading patterns in cancer of the thoracic esophagus

For the treatment of patients with cancer of the thoracic esophagus, lymphatic spreading is one important factor to infer how advanced their cancer is. We introduced a one-dimensional scale based on lymphatic spreading patterns, the stage of cancer, to express how advanced their cancer is, and we proposed a method to infer each patient's stage from his lymphatic spreading pattern by applying a Bayesian model. Our Bayesian model was built based on the assumption that lymphatic spreading in cancer could be explained as what was brought about by the advance of stage. In the modeling, we introduced the probability of what stage each patient was in as a prior distribution. We also introduced distribution functions of Weibull distributions to express the relation between the advance of stage and the increase of the probability of metastasis. Our model was applied to the data of nodal involvement obtained from 103 patients with cancer of the thoracic esophagus and the parameters were estimated with the maximum likelihood method. AIC was used to check that the data had enough information to be divided into the stages of a clinically reasonable number. With the estimated parameters, we inferred the probability of metastasis to each lymph node in each stage and calculated by Bayes' theorem with 31 new patients the probability of what stage they were in. The results well represented some characteristics of the lymphatic spreading and suggested the appropriateness of our approach.The present study was carried out under the ISM Cooperative Research Program (91-ISM·CRP-18).     

分形维数与城市规模分布评析

本在分形概念的基础上，指出城市规模分布是基于统计意义上的一种分形分布，并计算了安徽省1978～1998年城市规模分布的分维值，评析了安徽省城市规模分布变化的特征。     

由路段交通量推算OD矩阵的一种有效方法及其应用

针对现有OD矩阵估计方法的不足，本讨论了一种新的有效的估计方法，它包括一个路段流量的预处理过程，以消除路段观测流量的不相容，然后经过流量加载和卸载两个逆过程，进行反复迭代，最终得到再现路段交通量的OD矩阵，中例证了该方法的有效性。     

基于有限元的金属基短纤维复合材料MMC的一种统计蠕变模型

在有限元分析的基础上建立了一个单向应力状态下金属基短纤维复合材料(MMC)的统计蠕变模型.首先建立细胞模型并进行有限元分析,得到了单向应力状态下材料细观尺寸及载荷方向对宏观蠕变响应的影响规律.通过在细胞模型中增加一界面层(考虑材料特性和厚度)来研究基体和纤维的界面对MMC宏观蠕变响应的影响.基于细胞模型的数值结果,提出了一适用于纤维平面随机分布的随机统计模型,该模型考虑了纤维的断裂.通过试验获得纤维的统计分布规律.分析结果表明随机统计模型可以满意地描述试验结果.进一步讨论了材料细观尺寸,纤维的断裂特性以及界面层的材料特性和厚度对MMC宏观蠕变响应的影响.     

介绍一种二元阈值方法在股票指数上的应用

二元极值的阈值方法的一个发展是用来考虑两个变量的联合分布。这个方法是建立在二元极值的点过程表示法的基础上。本文用参数 (Logistic模型 )和非参数模型对 1992 1999年的上海、深圳日收盘指数对数收益进行分析并给出分析结果。     

有Edgeworth展式的分布的随机加权逼近的重对数律

本文研究了未知分布的逼近问题，利用随机加权法，给出了有Edgeworth展式的一类（未知）分布的模拟分布，证明了在一定条件下，模拟分布与未知分布的逼近精度达到O(n^-1√lnlnn），称之为随机加权逼近的重对数律。     

两类记录值之和的中心极限定理

该文给出了Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ分布纪录值序列部分和的中心极限定理；对于Ｐａｒｅｔｏ分布纪录值序列的部分和T_n，获得了ｌｎT_n的中心极限定理．这一工作不仅具有概率论的极限理论方面的研究价值，而且在金融、保险等领域也具有相当重要的应用前景．     

基于无失效数据的可靠度的估计

对二项分布无失效数据，在可靠度的先验密度为且时，给出了可靠度的多层Bayes估计．     

BoneRoute: An Adaptive Memory-Based Method for Effective Fleet Management

This paper presents an adaptive memory-based method for solving the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP), called BoneRoute. The CVRP deals with the problem of finding the optimal sequence of deliveries conducted by a fleet of homogeneous vehicles, based at one depot, to serve a set of customers. The computational performance of the BoneRoute was found to be very efficient, producing high quality solutions over two sets of well known case studies examined.     

On the Distribution of the Sum of n Non-Identically Distributed Uniform Random Variables

The distribution of the sum of independent identically distributed uniform random variables is well-known. However, it is sometimes necessary to analyze data which have been drawn from different uniform distributions. By inverting the characteristic function, we derive explicit formulae for the distribution of the sum of n non-identically distributed uniform random variables in both the continuous and the discrete case. The results, though involved, have a certain elegance. As examples, we derive from our general formulae some special cases which have appeared in the literature.