An optimal co-reinsurance strategy

This article considers a co-reinsurance strategy that (1) protects insurance companies against catastrophic risks; (2) enables insurers to gather sufficient information about the different risk attitudes of reinsurers and diversify their reinsured risks; (3) enables insurers to create better risk-sharing profiles by balancing the risk tolerances of reinsurers; (4) has the benefit of allowing reinsurers to accumulate experience with risks with which they are unfamiliar; (5) reduces the overall direct cost of a reinsurance contract; (6) allows a government to back some insurance products, such as the terrorism insurance programs that were established in many countries after the September 11th terrorist attacks; and (7) reflects the practical reinsurance industry of some countries, such as Iran. Such a co-reinsurance strategy can be fully determined by estimating its parameters whenever three optimal criteria are satisfied and prior information about the unknown parameters is available. Two simulation-based studies have been conducted to demonstrate (1) the practical applications of our findings and (2) the possible impact of any type of dependency between the co-reinsurance’s parameters and the evaluated optimal co-reinsurance strategy.     

Learning extended tree augmented naive structures

This work proposes an extended version of the well-known tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN) classifier where the structure learning step is performed without requiring features to be connected to the class. Based on a modification of Edmonds' algorithm, our structure learning procedure explores a superset of the structures that are considered by TAN, yet achieves global optimality of the learning score function in a very efficient way (quadratic in the number of features, the same complexity as learning TANs). We enhance our procedure with a new score function that only takes into account arcs that are relevant to predict the class, as well as an optimization over the equivalent sample size during learning. These ideas may be useful for structure learning of Bayesian networks in general. A range of experiments shows that we obtain models with better prediction accuracy than naive Bayes and TAN, and comparable to the accuracy of the state-of-the-art classifier averaged one-dependence estimator (AODE). We release our implementation of ETAN so that it can be easily installed and run within Weka.     

Bayesian selection of graphical regulatory models

We define a new class of coloured graphical models, called regulatory graphs. These graphs have their own distinctive formal semantics and can directly represent typical qualitative hypotheses about regulatory processes like those described by various biological mechanisms. They admit an embellishment into classes of probabilistic statistical models and so standard Bayesian methods of model selection can be used to choose promising candidate explanations of regulation. Regulation is modelled by the existence of a deterministic relationship between the longitudinal series of observations labelled by the receiving vertex and the donating one. This class contains longitudinal cluster models as a degenerate graph. Edge colours directly distinguish important features of the mechanism like inhibition and excitation and graphs are often cyclic. With appropriate distributional assumptions, because the regulatory relationships map onto each other through a group structure, it is possible to define a conditional conjugate analysis. This means that even when the model space is huge it is nevertheless feasible, using a Bayesian MAP search, to a discover regulatory network with a high Bayes Factor score. We also show that, like the class of Bayesian Networks, regulatory graphs also admit a formal but distinctive causal algebra. The topology of the graph then represents collections of hypotheses about the predicted effect of controlling the process by tearing out message passers or forcing them to transmit certain signals. We illustrate our methods on a microarray experiment measuring the expression of thousands of genes as a longitudinal series where the scientific interest lies in the circadian regulation of these plants.     

Schur complement‐based domain decomposition preconditioners with low‐rank corrections

This paper introduces a robust preconditioner for general sparse matrices based on low‐rank approximations of the Schur complement in a Domain Decomposition framework. In this ‘Schur Low Rank’ preconditioning approach, the coefficient matrix is first decoupled by a graph partitioner, and then a low‐rank correction is exploited to compute an approximate inverse of the Schur complement associated with the interface unknowns. The method avoids explicit formation of the Schur complement. We show the feasibility of this strategy for a model problem and conduct a detailed spectral analysis for the relation between the low‐rank correction and the quality of the preconditioner. We first introduce the SLR preconditioner for symmetric positive definite matrices and symmetric indefinite matrices if the interface matrices are symmetric positive definite. Extensions to general symmetric indefinite matrices as well as to nonsymmetric matrices are also discussed. Numerical experiments on general matrices illustrate the robustness and efficiency of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian sequential testing for Lévy processes with diffusion and jump components

We study the Bayesian problem of sequential testing of two simple hypotheses about the Lévy-Khintchine triplet of a Lévy process, having diffusion component, represented by a Brownian motion with drift, and jump component of finite variation. The method of proof consists of reducing the original optimal stopping problem to a free-boundary problem. We show it is characterized by a second order integro-differential equation, that the unknown value function solves on the continuation region, and by the smooth fit principle, which holds at the unknown boundary points. Several examples are presented.     

Model selection of a switching mechanism for financial time series

The threshold autoregressive model with generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) specification is a popular nonlinear model that captures the well‐known asymmetric phenomena in financial market data. The switching mechanisms of hysteretic autoregressive GARCH models are different from threshold autoregressive model with GARCH as regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. This paper conducts a Bayesian model comparison among competing models by designing an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme. We illustrate the performance of three kinds of criteria by comparing models with fat‐tailed and/or skewed errors: deviance information criteria, Bayesian predictive information, and an asymptotic version of Bayesian predictive information. A simulation study highlights the properties of the three Bayesian criteria and the accuracy as well as their favorable performance as model selection tools. We demonstrate the proposed method in an empirical study of 12 international stock markets, providing evidence to strongly support for both models with skew fat‐tailed innovations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广义变系数模型的Bayesian B样条估计

提出了广义变系数模型函数系数的一种新的估计方法．我们用B样条函数逼近函数系数,不具体选择节点的个数,而是节点个数取均匀的无信息先验,样条函数系数取正态先验,用Bayesian模型平均的方法估计各个函数系数．这种估计方法一个主要特点是允许各个函数系数所需节点个数的后验分布不同,因此允许不同函数系数使用不同的光滑参数．另外,本文还给出了Bayesian B样条估计的计算方法,并通过模拟例子,说明广义变系数模型的函数系数可以由Bayesian B样条估计方法得到很好的估计．     

Approximate Inverse Preconditioners for Some Large Dense Random Electrostatic Interaction Matrices

A sparse mesh-neighbour based approximate inverse preconditioner is proposed for a type of dense matrices whose entries come from the evaluation of a slowly decaying free space Green’s function at randomly placed points in a unit cell. By approximating distant potential fields originating at closely spaced sources in a certain way, the preconditioner is given properties similar to, or better than, those of a standard least squares approximate inverse preconditioner while its setup cost is only that of a diagonal block approximate inverse preconditioner. Numerical experiments on iterative solutions of linear systems with up to four million unknowns illustrate how the new preconditioner drastically outperforms standard approximate inverse preconditioners of otherwise similar construction, and especially so when the preconditioners are very sparse. AMS subject classification (2000) 65F10, 65R20, 65F35, 78A30     

Fast evaluation of trigonometric polynomials from hyperbolic crosses

The discrete Fourier transform in d dimensions with equispaced knots in space and frequency domain can be computed by the fast Fourier transform (FFT) in arithmetic operations. In order to circumvent the ‘curse of dimensionality’ in multivariate approximation, interpolations on sparse grids were introduced. In particular, for frequencies chosen from an hyperbolic cross and spatial knots on a sparse grid fast Fourier transforms that need only arithmetic operations were developed. Recently, the FFT was generalised to nonequispaced spatial knots by the so-called NFFT. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for the fast Fourier transform on hyperbolic cross points for nonequispaced spatial knots in two and three dimensions. We call this algorithm sparse NFFT (SNFFT). Our new algorithm is based on the NFFT and an appropriate partitioning of the hyperbolic cross. Numerical examples confirm our theoretical results.     

基于局部多项式展开的多元非参数模型贝叶斯带宽选择

在多元非参数模型中带宽和阶的选择对局部多项式估计量的表现十分重要。本文基于交叉验证准则提出一个自适应贝叶斯带宽选择方法。在给定的误差密度函数下,该方法可推导出对应的似然函数,并构造带宽参数的后验密度函数。随后,通过带宽的后验期望可同时获得阶和带宽的估计。数值模拟的结果表明,该方法不仅比大拇指准则方法精确,且比交叉验证方法耗时更少。与此同时,与Nadaraya-Watson估计相比,所提带宽选择方法对多元非参数模型的适应性要更好。最后,本文通过一组实际数据说明有限样本下所提贝叶斯带宽选择的表现很好。