Bayesian robustness under a skew-normal class of prior distribution

We develop a global sensitivity analysis to measure the robustness of the Bayesian estimators with respect to a class of prior distributions. This class arises when we consider multiplicative contamination of a base prior distribution. A similar structure was presented by van der Linde [12]. Some particular specifications for this multiplicative contamination class coincide with well known families of skewed distributions. In this paper, we explore the skew-normal multiplicative contamination class for the prior distribution of the location parameter of a normal model. Results of a Bayesian conjugation and expressions for some measures of distance between posterior means and posterior variance are obtained. We also elaborate on the behavior of the posterior means and of the posterior variances through a simulation study.     

Bayesian Estimation for the Order of INAR(q) Mo del

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the order of INAR(q) model on the basis of the Bayesian estimation theory. The Bayesian es-timator for the order is given with respect to a squared-error loss function. The consistency of the estimator is discussed. The results of a simulation study for the estimation method are presented.     

Objective Bayesian analysis of the Frechet stress–strength model

Several reference priors and a general form of matching priors are derived for a stress–strength system, and it is concluded that none of the reference priors is a matching prior. The study shows that the matching prior performs better than Jeffreys prior and reference priors in meeting the target coverage probabilities.     

Bayesian Analysis of Exafs Data

In this paper we demonstrate the use of Bayesian analysis methods for the analysis of EXAFS data. We will discuss the physical parameters that may be estimated by the method and demonstrate the applicability of the method to Molybdenum coordination compounds.     

Bayesian Estimation and Statistical Analysis of Risk Measurements

The Bayesian model are established for the VaR and related risk measurements. The relationship between VaR and other risk measurements including expect shortfall, tail condition expectation and conditional value at risk are discussed. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimates and Bayesian predictors of these risk measurement are derived. Thirdly, the consistency and asymptotic normality in the exponential risk model are proved. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to verify the convergence rate under different sample sizes.     

Sparse Multicategory Generalized Distance Weighted Discrimination in Ultra-High Dimensions

Distance weighted discrimination (DWD) is an appealing classification method that is capable of overcoming data piling problems in high-dimensional settings. Especially when various sparsity structures are assumed in these settings, variable selection in multicategory classification poses great challenges. In this paper, we propose a multicategory generalized DWD (MgDWD) method that maintains intrinsic variable group structures during selection using a sparse group lasso penalty. Theoretically, we derive minimizer uniqueness for the penalized MgDWD loss function and consistency properties for the proposed classifier. We further develop an efficient algorithm based on the proximal operator to solve the optimization problem. The performance of MgDWD is evaluated using finite sample simulations and miRNA data from an HIV study.     

A General Bayesian Model for Speaker Verification

This paper presents a general Bayesian model for speaker verification tasks.It is a generative probability model.Due to its simple analytical property,a computationally efficient expectation-maximization algorithm can be derived to obtain the model parameters.A closedform solution,which allows the scalable size of enrollment set,is given in a full Bayesian way for making speaker verification decisions.Factor analysis technique is employed to model the speaker-specific components,then the redundant information in this model will be dropped.Experimental results are evaluated by both equal error rate and minimum detection cost function.The proposed approach shows promising results on the National institute of standards and technology (NIST) Speaker recognition evaluation (SRE) 2010 extended and 2012 core tasks.Significant improvement is obtained when comparing with Gaussian probabilistic linear discriminant analysis,especially under phone-call conditions and mismatched train-test channel conditions.Contrast experimental results with other popular generative probability models are also presented in this paper.     

Bayesian selection of graphical regulatory models

We define a new class of coloured graphical models, called regulatory graphs. These graphs have their own distinctive formal semantics and can directly represent typical qualitative hypotheses about regulatory processes like those described by various biological mechanisms. They admit an embellishment into classes of probabilistic statistical models and so standard Bayesian methods of model selection can be used to choose promising candidate explanations of regulation. Regulation is modelled by the existence of a deterministic relationship between the longitudinal series of observations labelled by the receiving vertex and the donating one. This class contains longitudinal cluster models as a degenerate graph. Edge colours directly distinguish important features of the mechanism like inhibition and excitation and graphs are often cyclic. With appropriate distributional assumptions, because the regulatory relationships map onto each other through a group structure, it is possible to define a conditional conjugate analysis. This means that even when the model space is huge it is nevertheless feasible, using a Bayesian MAP search, to a discover regulatory network with a high Bayes Factor score. We also show that, like the class of Bayesian Networks, regulatory graphs also admit a formal but distinctive causal algebra. The topology of the graph then represents collections of hypotheses about the predicted effect of controlling the process by tearing out message passers or forcing them to transmit certain signals. We illustrate our methods on a microarray experiment measuring the expression of thousands of genes as a longitudinal series where the scientific interest lies in the circadian regulation of these plants.