竞争环境下多个损失规避零售商的 预先订购折扣合约研究

在展望理论框架下,考虑由多个存在竞争的损失规避型零售商和一个风险中性的供应商组成的供应链预先订购折扣合约问题,研究了供应商和零售商在预先订购折扣合约下的决策行为,研究表明,供应商通过预先订购折扣合约可以协调整个供应链.最后通过算例,分别得到了供应商和零售商在预先订购折扣合约下的最优决策行为以及能使得供应链达到协调的供应商的决策行为.     

考虑结算风险的套期保值研究

期货市场的风险转移功能主要通过套期保值策略来实现,期货市场套期保值的关键问题是套期保值比率的确定。现有套期保值研究侧重于规避价格风险,忽略了期货市场另一个重要的风险因素-结算风险。本文通过建立考虑结算风险的期货套期保值决策模型,有效地平衡了套期保值过程中的价格风险与结算风险。具体特色一是将套保者的结算风险厌恶态度直接反映到套期比的计算中,体现了结算风险对套期保值决策的影响;二是在一定条件下,本模型的套期比趋近于最小方差套期比;三是利用ARMA时间序列方法预测期货与现货的价格走势,有效地反映了期货价格一阶平稳和季节性变化规律,使估计的套期比更加精确可靠。     

A parameterized approach to modeling and forecasting mortality

A new method is proposed of constructing mortality forecasts. This parameterized approach utilizes Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), based on heteroscedastic Poisson (non-additive) error structures, and using an orthonormal polynomial design matrix. Principal Component (PC) analysis is then applied to the cross-sectional fitted parameters. The produced model can be viewed either as a one-factor parameterized model where the time series are the fitted parameters, or as a principal component model, namely a log-bilinear hierarchical statistical association model of Goodman [Goodman, L.A., 1991. Measures, models, and graphical displays in the analysis of cross-classified data. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 86(416), 1085-1111] or equivalently as a generalized Lee-Carter model with p interaction terms. Mortality forecasts are obtained by applying dynamic linear regression models to the PCs. Two applications are presented: Sweden (1751-2006) and Greece (1957-2006).     

Dynamic mortality factor model with conditional heteroskedasticity

In most methods for modeling mortality rates, the idiosyncratic shocks are assumed to be homoskedastic. This study investigates the conditional heteroskedasticity of mortality in terms of statistical time series. We start from testing the conditional heteroskedasticity of the period effect in the naïve Lee-Carter model for some mortality data. Then we introduce the Generalized Dynamic Factor method and the multivariate BEKK GARCH model to describe mortality dynamics and the conditional heteroskedasticity of mortality. After specifying the number of static factors and dynamic factors by several variants of information criterion, we compare our model with other two models, namely, the Lee-Carter model and the state space model. Based on several error-based measures of performance, our results indicate that if the number of static factors and dynamic factors is properly determined, the method proposed dominates other methods. Finally, we use our method combined with Kalman filter to forecast the mortality rates of Iceland and period life expectancies of Denmark, Finland, Italy and Netherlands.     

Investment in electricity networks with transmission switching

We consider the application of Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition to stochastic integer programming problems arising in the capacity planning of electricity transmission networks that have some switchable transmission elements. The decomposition enables a column-generation algorithm to be applied, which allows the solution of large problem instances. The methodology is illustrated by its application to a problem of determining the optimal investment in switching equipment and transmission capacity for an existing network. Computational tests on IEEE test networks with 73 nodes and 118 nodes confirm the efficiency of the approach.     

Treasury Management Model with Foreign Exchange Exposure

In this paper we formulate a model for foreign exchange exposure management and (international) cash management taking into consideration random fluctuations of exchange rates. A vector error correction model (VECM) is used to predict the random behaviour of the forward as well as spot rates connecting dollar and sterling. A two-stage stochastic programming (TWOSP) decision model is formulated using these random parameter values. This model computes currency hedging strategies, which provide rolling decisions of how much forward contracts should be bought and how much should be liquidated.The model decisions are investigated through ex post simulation and backtesting in which value at risk (VaR) for alternative decisions are computed. The investigation (a) shows that there is a considerable improvement to “spot only” strategy, (b) provides insight into how these decisions are made and (c) also validates the performance of this model.     

Capacity competition of make-to-order firms

Two make-to-order firms, each modelled as a single-server queue, compete for a common stream of (potential) customers by setting their service capacities (rates) and service prices. Each customer maximizes her expected return by getting service from a firm or by balking. We completely characterize the Nash equilibrium of the competition.     

深圳市供水量的最优组合预测

城市供水系统是一个复杂的大系统,供水量受多种因素的共同影响。本文以深圳市最近20多年的供水量历史数据为基础,建立了深圳市供水量的最优组合预测模型。该模型具有较高的预测精度,组合预测的预测效果优于任意一种单一预测的预测效果,供水量预测结果对深圳市未来供水的短期或长期规划能起到重要的宏观指导作用。     

在预报更新的环境下具有两种配送方式的供应链模型

本文研究在预报更新环境下具有快、慢两种配送方式和需求预报更新的库存系统，为了得到更多关于费用参数和预报改进对最优定货量以及最优的平均费用的影响，我们考虑两个周期的情形．以动态规划为工具我们得到了系统的最优策略．对于需求预报服从均匀分布情形，本文得到了最优定货量和最优的平均总费用的精确表达式．我们通过一些数值例子来说明库存费用、罚金、需求的预报改进和预报误差对最优定货量和最优的     

期权思想在多阶段项目投资中的应用

本文主要借助期权理论,讨论项目投资分多阶段进行时选择最佳投资的问题.首先通过在单阶段投资下建立项目投资的最佳选择框架,然后展开到项目投资分两个阶段进行的情形上进行讨论分析,得出此情形下的投资选择结论,最后把这一结论扩展到项目投资分多阶段进行的项目上.