Role of Time Scales in the Coupled Epidemic-Opinion Dynamics on Multiplex Networks

Modelling the epidemic’s spread on multiplex networks, considering complex human behaviours, has recently gained the attention of many scientists. In this work, we study the interplay between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics on multiplex networks. An agent in the epidemic layer could remain in one of five distinct states, resulting in the SIRQD model. The agent’s attitude towards respecting the restrictions of the pandemic plays a crucial role in its prevalence. In our model, the agent’s point of view could be altered by either conformism mechanism, social pressure, or independent actions. As the underlying opinion model, we leverage the q-voter model. The entire system constitutes a coupled opinion–dynamic model where two distinct processes occur. The question arises of how to properly align these dynamics, i.e., whether they should possess equal or disparate timescales. This paper highlights the impact of different timescales of opinion dynamics on epidemic spreading, focusing on the time and the infection’s peak.     

Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket

^** E-mail: p.a.scarf{at}salford.ac.uk This paper considers the problem of timing the declaration ofthe third innings in test cricket. Data on the outcomes of recenttest matches are analysed in order to develop simple decisionsupport tools. The first of these tools presents match outcomeprobabilities given the position of the match at a potentialdeclaration point. These probabilities are determined usinga multinomial logistic regression model that is fitted to thetest match data. This idea is then extended to consider progresstowards a declaration—match outcome probabilities areconsidered as a function of target aimed for and run-rate. Thedecision tools have been implemented on a spreadsheet and examplecalculations are presented. The modelling described has thepotential for practical use in test matches.     

A Stochastic Model for Combined Activity/Destination/Route Choice Problems

In travel behavior modeling, an important topic is to investigate what drives people to travel. A systematic analysis should examine why, where and when various activities are engaged in, and how activity engagement is related to the spatial and institutional organization of an urban area. In view of this, this paper presents a stochastic model for solving the combined activity/destination/route choice problem. It is a time-dependent model for long-term transport planning such as travel demand forecasting. The activity/destination choices are based on multinomial logit formulae and, the route choice is governed by stochastic user equilibrium principle. The solution algorithm is proposed together with a numerical example for demonstration. It is shown that the proposed modeling approach provides a powerful tool for fully understanding and predicting the complex travel behavior at strategic level. The work described in this paper was substantially supported by the grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 79825101), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (MADIS Research Project) and the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Project No. PolyU5077/97E).     

Generating beta random rate variables from probabilistic estimates of fireline production times

An extension of probabilistic PERT/CPM is proposed as a framework for soliciting expert opinion to characterize random variables for stochastic treatment in simulation models. By eliciting minimum, modal, ninetieth percentile, and maximum estimates, the distribution of variables with probability density functions of beta form can be explicitly characterized without relying on the traditional, but empirically unverified, assumption of a standard deviation equal to one-sixth of the range. This practical and inexpensive technique is illustrated by application to a wildfire protection planning problem – estimating the time required to produce a given length of fireline by different firefighting resources under diverse conditions. The estimated production times are an essential input to a planning model of initial attack on wildland fires used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, and provide that agency with useful rules-of-thumb for use in firefighter training.     

复杂网络上集群行为与自旋模型

复杂系统中的集群行为(collective behavior)是复杂系统涌现性的重要表现之一, 它通过微观个体之间的相互作用, 在宏观上表现出一定的时空或功能有序结构．已有研究表明, 个体之间相互作用的网络结构对复杂系统的集群行为有重要影响．基于复杂网络上的自旋模型, 介绍了复杂网络上的集群行为的部分研究进展． 首先简要介绍了自旋模型的相变现象以及网络结构对相变行为的影响; 其次, 介绍了以自旋模型为基础应用到社会经济等领域中的工作, 包括舆论形成、羊群效应以及分隔现象(segregation)等, 尤其关注网络结构对集群行为的影响, 最后介绍了基于自旋模型的网络社团划分方法．对进一步的发展方向进行了初步的讨论．     

Derivation and Visualization of the Binomial Theorem

The binomial theorem presents us with the opportunity to weave many different mathematical strands into one lesson. It has a fascinating history — the study of which leads to a better understanding of how mathematics evolved. In this paper, we have involved computer graphics, geometry, algebra and combinatorics in the derivation of the binomial theorem. The study of functions with finite domains and ranges helps students understand some of the more subtle properties of functions which have the set of real numbers for their domain and range. These are the functions which they study to the exclusion of all others in high school and in their first two years in college. We believe that the lesson presented in this paper encourages students to express mathematical ideas in the vernacular, one of the major standards recommended by the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM).This revised version was published online in September 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Calculation of average coding efficiency based on subjective quality scores

The Bjøntegaard model is widely used to calculate the coding efficiency between different codecs. However, this model might not be an accurate predictor of the true coding efficiency as it relies on PSNR measurements. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a model to calculate the average coding efficiency based on subjective quality scores, i.e., mean opinion scores (MOS). We call this approach Subjective Comparison of ENcoders based on fItted Curves (SCENIC). To consider the intrinsic nature of bounded rating scales, a logistic function is used to fit the rate–distortion (R–D) values. The average MOS and bit rate differences are computed between the fitted R–D curves. The statistical property of subjective scores is considered to estimate corresponding confidence intervals on the calculated average MOS and bit rate differences. The proposed model is expected to report more realistic coding efficiency as PSNR is not always correlated with perceived visual quality.     

Stopping eules for the multistart method when different local minima have different function values

In this paper the Bayesian stopping rules derived by Boendeb and Rin-Nooy Kan for the Multistart method in global optimization are adjusted to incorporate both in the likelihood and in the loss function the a priori assumption that different local minimum points have different, function values.     

微博传播波的函数解析实证研究

为定量地揭示微博传播行为内在的时间演化规律,将微博转发量随时间的变化定义为微博传播波.根据微博传播网络的结构,将微博传播波分解为由若干"大V"所引发的微博传播子波.通过实证,发现了微博传播子波所遵从的统一的指数衰减函数形式.最终实现了将微博传播行为重构为一系列指数衰减函数的叠加,并对该函数中各参数的意义及影响因素进行了初步的探讨.     

网络编码构造算法研究

网络编码是通信网络中信息传输技术的一个重大突破,其核心思想就是利用路由器的智能化功能,允许网络中间节点对传输信息进行编码,从而提高网络传输效率。该文通过＂蝶形网络＂来分析网络编码的基本原理,并归纳现有网络编码的基本构造算法及其优缺点,最后讨论网络编码构造算法的进一步发展方向。