一种在线社交网络的自适应观点引导模型及实现

在线社交网络已成为信息传播的重要途径,给人们获取信息带来便利的同时,也为不良信息的扩散提供了温床。目前主流的在线社交网络都采用关键字匹配的方式屏蔽不良信息的发布,在阻止信息本身的同时,也屏蔽了与其相关的积极观点的传播。本文提出一种自适应的观点引导模型,实现对在线社交网络用户的观点引导。该模型首先分析网络用户对事件／事物的观点和情感倾向,确定其中观点消极的用户作为引导对象,然后向其推送与之关注点相近且情感相对积极的信息或用户,进行观点引导,同时引入反馈机制,根据引导对象的观点变化动态调整推送内容,以实现长期精确引导。基于该模型设计并实现了观点引导系统,包括引导信息模块、观点标注模块、推荐模块和反馈模块,实现了自动选择群体、自动识别群体情感倾向、自动选择和调整推送内容等功能。实验结果表明,该模型能够实现对在线社交网络用户的观点引导。     

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Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in Cox-Ingersoll-Ross interest rate framework to model the instantaneous interest rate dynamics. However, empirical studies have also shown that the return distribution of interest rate has a higher peak and two fatter tails than those of the normal distribution. Meanwhile, when the rare catastrophic shocks occur or the regime shifts in the economy and finance, the money market may have jumps. In this paper, we will consider a class of reflected Cox-Ingersoll-Ross interest rate models with noise. Furthermore, we shall continue to supply the Laplace transform of the stationary distribution about this reflected diffusion process with jumps.     

Valuing inflation-linked death benefits under a stochastic volatility framework

In this paper we construct a framework to price the inflation-linked derivatives with the stochastic inflation rate, the stochastic interest rate, and stochastic risky assets with stochastic volatility. Because of the popularity of the guaranteed minimum death benefit (GMDB) in insurance market, we mainly study two types of GMDBs: the inflation guarantee and the combination guarantee. We consider the guaranteed minimum death benefit as an European option with a random maturity date, the closed-form pricing formulas for the GMDBs are derived by Fourier-based method. Moreover, we give an elaborate sensitivity analysis to explain economical behaviors of our models. The numerical results show that the death benefit of inflation guarantee is slightly overpriced in constant volatility of stock situation.     

Statistical mechanics of money: how saving propensity affects its distribution

We consider a simple model of a closed economic system where the total money is conserved and the number of economic agents is fixed. Analogous to statistical systems in equilibrium, money and the average money per economic agent are equivalent to energy and temperature, respectively. We investigate the effect of the saving propensity of the agents on the stationary or equilibrium probability distribution of money. When the agents do not save, the equilibrium money distribution becomes the usual Gibb's distribution, characteristic of non-interacting agents. However with saving, even for individual self-interest, the dynamics becomes cooperative and the resulting asymmetric Gaussian-like stationary distribution acquires global ordering properties. Intriguing singularities are observed in the stationary money distribution in the market, as functions of the marginal saving propensity of the agents. Received 2 May 2000     

On the physical relevance of max- and log-max-selfsimilar distributions

This work emphasizes the special role played by max-semistable and log-max-semistable distributions as relevant statistical models of various observable and “internal” variables in Physics. Some of their remarkable properties (chiefly self-similarity) are displayed in some detail. One of their characteristic features is a log-periodic variation of the scale parameter which appears in the stable extreme value distributions. Received 29 November 1999 and Received in final form 24 March 2000     

Self-organized model for information spread in financial markets

A self-organized model with social percolation process is proposed to describe the propagations of information for different trading ways across a social system and the automatic formation of various groups within market traders. Based on the market structure of this model, some stylized observations of real market can be reproduced, including the slow decay of volatility correlations, and the fat tail distribution of price returns which is found to cross over to an exponential-type asymptotic decay in different dimensional systems. Received 15 March 2000     

Symmetry alteration of ensemble return distribution in crash and rally days of financial markets

We select the n stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the k trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We study the ensemble return distribution for each trading day and we find that the symmetry properties of the ensemble return distribution drastically change in crash and rally days of the market. In crash and rally days, the distribution becomes asymmetric. In particular for crashes the positive tail is steeper than the negative one whereas the reverse is observed in rally days. Received 25 February 2000     

Clustering of volatility as a multiscale phenomenon

The dynamics of prices in financial markets has been studied intensively both experimentally (data analysis) and theoretically (models). Nevertheless, a complete stochastic characterization of volatility is still lacking. What is well known is that absolute returns have memory on a long time range, this phenomenon is known as clustering of volatility. In this paper we show that volatility correlations are power-laws with a non-unique scaling exponent. This kind of multiscale phenomenology has some analogies with fully developed turbulence and disordered systems and it is now pointed out for financial series. Starting from historical returns series, we have also derived the volatility distribution, and the results are in agreement with a log-normal shape. In our study, we consider the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), daily composite index closes (January 1966 to June 1998) and the US Dollar/Deutsche Mark (USD-DM) noon buying rates certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (October 1989 to September 1998). Received 1 February 2000     

A stability criterion for financial markets

Using the theory of random cluster models, we give a stability criterion for financial markets with random communications between agents. Received 25 September 1999 and Received in final form 2 October 1999     

"老人"历史债务的双随机模型

为社会养老保险制度转轨过程中的“老人”历史债务建立了双随机模型，得到了“老人”历史债务的前二阶段，并对息力累积函数以Wiener过程和Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程建模得到了的具体表达式。最后做了一个实例，以浙江省某市的实际数据，估算了该市的“老人”历史债务额。