Influence diagrams for Bayesian decision analysis

Influence diagrams for representing Bayesian decision problems are redefined in a formal way using conditional independence. This makes the graphs somewhat more helpful for exploring the consequences of a clients state beliefs. Some important results about the manipulation of influence diagrams are extended and reviewed as is an algorithm for computing an optimal policy. Two new results about the manipulation of influence diagrams are derived. A novel influence diagram representing a practical decision problem is used to illustrate the methodologies presented in this paper.     

Epistemic irrelevance in credal nets: The case of imprecise Markov trees

We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance, which is arguably more suited for a behavioural theory of probability. Focusing on directed trees, we show how to combine the given local uncertainty models in the nodes of the graph into a global model, and we use this to construct and justify an exact message-passing algorithm that computes updated beliefs for a variable in the tree. The algorithm, which is linear in the number of nodes, is formulated entirely in terms of coherent lower previsions, and is shown to satisfy a number of rationality requirements. We supply examples of the algorithm’s operation, and report an application to on-line character recognition that illustrates the advantages of our approach for prediction. We comment on the perspectives, opened by the availability, for the first time, of a truly efficient algorithm based on epistemic irrelevance.     

Uniform estimate for the tail probabilities of randomly weighted sums

Several authors have studied the uniform estimate for the tail probabilities of randomly weighted sumsa.ud their maxima. In this paper, we generalize their work to the situation thatis a sequence of upper tail asymptotically independent random variables with common distribution from the is a sequence of nonnegative random variables, independent of and satisfying some regular conditions. Moreover. no additional assumption is required on the dependence structureof {θi,i≥ 1）.     

Asymptotic ruin probabilities in a generalized bidimensional risk model perturbed by diffusion with constant force of interest

In the paper, we study three types of finite-time ruin probabilities in a diffusion-perturbed bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest, pairwise strongly quasi-asymptotically independent claims and two general claim arrival processes, and obtain uniformly asymptotic formulas for times in a finite interval when the claims are both long-tailed and dominatedly-varying-tailed. In particular, with a certain dependence structure among the inter-arrival times, these formulas hold uniformly for all times when the claims are pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent and consistently-varying-tailed.     

Sufficient Conditions for a Digraph to be Supereulerian

A (di)graph is supereulerian if it contains a spanning eulerian sub(di)graph. This property is a relaxation of hamiltonicity. Inspired by this analogy with hamiltonian cycles and by similar results in supereulerian graph theory, we analyze a number of sufficient Ore type conditions for a digraph to be supereulerian. Furthermore, we study the following conjecture due to Thomassé and the first author: if the arc‐connectivity of a digraph is not smaller than its independence number, then the digraph is supereulerian. As a support for this conjecture we prove it for digraphs that are semicomplete multipartite or quasitransitive and verify the analogous statement for undirected graphs.     

Strong approximations of the Hoeffding,Blum, Kiefer,Rosenblatt multivariate empirical process

Hoeffding (Ann. Math. Statist. 1948) and Blum, Kiefer and Rosenblatt (Ann. Math. Statist. 1961) constructed distribution free tests of independence based on a multivariate empirical process. We establish strong invariance principles for the latter and also for appropriate functionals of it.     

An analytical comparison of students’ reasoning in the context of Inquiry-Oriented Instruction: The case of span and linear independence

In this report we analyze differences in reasoning about span and linear independence by comparing written work of 126 linear algebra students whose instructors received support to implement a particular inquiry-oriented (IO) instructional approach compared to 129 students whose instructors did not receive that support. Our analysis of students’ responses to open-ended questions indicated that IO students’ concept images of span and linear independence were more aligned with the formal concept definition than the concept images of Non-IO students. Additionally, IO students exhibited more coordinated conceptual understandings and used deductive reasoning at higher rates than Non-IO students. We provide illustrative examples of systematic differences in how students from the two groups reasoned about span and linear independence.     

模糊合作博弈局中人参与水平间相互作用度量

本文基于经典合作博弈局中人间相互作用现象的有关度量方法,针对具有模糊联盟的合作博弈问题,给出了模糊联盟中各局中人参与水平间相互作用的度量方法,定义了水平间相互独立性概念,建立了反映局中人各参与水平间相互作用平均程度的两指标:Shapley相互作用指标及Banzhaf相互作用指标.同时对于具有k-单调性的模糊合作博弈局中人参与水平间的边缘相互作用的有关性质作了进一步研究,得出了一些新的结论.     

关于“停走”生成器概率模型中的符合率问题

本文首先建立了“停走”生成器辅出序列的概率模型,给出了“停走”生成器输出序列与其线性移位寄存器序列之间的符合率的计算公式。     

谈谈与图有关的几种复形的同调群

我们从组合拓扑方法在图论的应用中,着重介绍与图有关的几种复形的近期研究动态,论述其中一些基础性的问题,并提出一些可供研究的新问题。