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Most of the methods used in the ARCH literature for selecting the appropriate model are based on evaluating the ability of the models to describe the data. An alternative model selection approach is examined based on the evaluation of the predictability of the models in terms of standardized prediction errors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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We study initial boundary value problems for linear scalar evolutionpartial differential equations, with spatial derivatives ofarbitrary order, posed on the domain {t > 0, 0 < x <L}. We show that the solution can be expressed as an integralin the complex k-plane. This integral is defined in terms ofan x-transform of the initial condition and a t-transform ofthe boundary conditions. The derivation of this integral representationrelies on the analysis of the global relation, which is an algebraicrelation defined in the complex k-plane coupling all boundaryvalues of the solution. For particular cases, such as the case of periodic boundaryconditions, or the case of boundary value problems for even-orderPDEs, it is possible to obtain directly from the global relationan alternative representation for the solution, in the formof an infinite series. We stress, however, that there existinitial boundary value problems for which the only representationis an integral which cannot be written as an infinite series.An example of such a problem is provided by the linearized versionof the KdV equation. Similarly, in general the solution of odd-orderlinear initial boundary value problems on a finite intervalcannot be expressed in terms of an infinite series. 相似文献
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The UV-blue thermoluminescence (TL) emission of exsolved and twinned potassium feldspars is potentially valid to be employed in the field of dating and retrospective dosimetry. This paper reports about the following results: (i) The dose dependence of the 400 nm TL intensity of a K-rich feldspar exhibits an excellent linearity in the range of 50 mGy–8 Gy. (ii) The stability of the TL signal after 6 months of storage, shows an initial rapid decay (ca. 45%) maintaining the stability from 40 days onwards which indicates that the electron population decreases asymptotically by the X-axis and the involved electrons are located in deeper traps at room temperature. The fading process can be fitted to a first-order decay equation of the sort y=y0+A exp(−x/t). (iii) The tests of thermal stability at different temperatures confirm a continuous trap distribution with progressive changes in the glow curve shape, intensity and temperature position of the maximum peak. According to this behaviour some physical parameters are defined. 相似文献