森林地表火火行为预测预报系统

本文从地表火蔓延的本质入手，建立了一整套求解地表火行为特征量的数学模型，并运用现代软件编制技术，成功地编制出预测预报地表火行为的计算机软件。该系统能预测复杂地形、气象条件和可燃物分布情形下，火蔓延过程中不同阶段的火行为状况。算例结果表明，系统在预测结果的合理性和准确性等方面优于美国的BEHAVE程序。     

Creation or destruction of sourceless abelian gauge strings in a Robertson-Walker universe

Following Morris’s [5] consideration of a sourceless abelian gauge string in a Robertson-Walker universe with flat space sections we have generalized the treatment to the case of arbitrary spatial curvature. We find that creation or destruction of the gauge string is not possible if the spatial curvature is nonzero.     

国外航空反潜火控系统的发展

介绍了反潜飞机所配有的各类机载搜潜探测系统，以及机载反潜火控系统的基本构成、分类和功能，详细分析了火控系统及相关技术的发展趋势，为未来反潜火控系统技术的发展提出了一些建议和思考。     

光纤在光电线缆燃烧试验中的应用

随着信息技术的不断发展，信息传输线应用越来越广泛，而其燃烧特性的检测越来越重要，作者基于米氏散射理论（MST），提出了两种光电线缆燃烧试验的新方法，并进行了相应的讨论。     

改善机载预警非正侧面阵雷达主杂波区性能的研究

本文研究了机载预警雷达采用非正侧面阵时主杂波区性能改善的问题，首先对机载雷达非正侧阵上染波谱带进行了分析，其次研究了文献（１）的先滤波再自适应处理的方法，并从实用化角度提出了改进的方法，最后对改进方法进行了详细的理论分析与计算机模拟研究。     

基于神经网络技术的水质预测

随着地表饮用水源的藻类高发程度的加重和藻毒素的对健康的危害性逐渐被认识,供水企业需建立水源水质预警系统以确保供水水质和实现水厂经济运行,而水源水质预测是预警系统的基础.收集天津引滦源水1744天的水质检测资料,通过相关及指标聚类两种方法分析,确定建立预测2天后源水水质-叶绿素-a的神经网络模型的输入变量选择方案共26个,每个方案经10次试验,比选出模型最优输入变量和模型结构.为建立具有代表性的模型,使用前1209天数据训练模型,训练后的模型对剩余数据的仿真输出值与实际值间相关系数达0.88,其预测准确率为85%,满足水厂运行要求.     

FIRE OCCURRENCE PATTERNS AT LANDSCAPE LEVEL: BEYOND POSITIONAL ACCURACY OF IGNITION POINTS WITH KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATION METHODS

ABSTRACT. Based on kernel density estimation methods, this paper introduces an alternative approach of fire occurrence modeling that addresses the inherent positional inaccuracies of recorded wildland fire ignition points. These observations, recorded in longitude and latitude using only degrees and first minutes, contain positional inaccuracies of about ± 700 to ± 925 meters in x and y axes. Kernel density estimation was applied to these historical fire observations recorded between 1985 and 1995 in Halkidiki peninsula, Greece, as well as, to simulated inaccurate points into which positional inaccuracies of the same magnitude were randomly introduced. Substantial differences were observed when a regular grid of quadrants was superimposed over the two point distributions. Although, at higher grid resolution these mismatches were minimized, the problem of generalization appeared. Contrar‐ily, the concept of “moving window” assisted to retain high grid resolution and minimize the effect of inaccurate point observations. In addition, the kernel approach, which considers also the relative position of points within the “moving window,” produced more realistic estimates.     

现代空战指挥系统与攻击系统研究分析

针对现在空战中指挥系统与攻击系统的数据融合存在的不足，给出了经过改进后的现代空战指挥系统及攻击系统流程图及原理；介绍了攻击系统中的火控解算原理并进行了分析和优化计算，为完善现代空战指挥及攻击系统理论提供了一定依据；同时对战术决策及逻辑攻击有一定的指导作用。     

A real-time monitoring approach for bivariate event data

Early detection of changes in the frequency of events is an important task in many fields, such as disease surveillance, monitoring of high-quality processes, reliability monitoring, and public health. This article focuses on detecting changes in multivariate event data by monitoring the time-between-events (TBE). Existing multivariate TBE charts are limited because they only signal after an event occurred for each of the individual processes. This results in delays (i.e., long time-to-signal), especially when we are interested in detecting a change in one or a few processes with different rates. We propose a bivariate TBE chart, which can signal in real-time. We derive analytical expressions for the control limits and average time-to-signal performance, conduct a performance evaluation and compare our chart to an existing method. Our findings showed that our method is an effective approach for monitoring bivariate TBE data and has better detection ability than the existing method under transient shifts and is more generally applicable. A significant benefit of our method is that it signals in real-time and that the control limits are based on analytical expressions. The proposed method is implemented on two real-life datasets from reliability and health surveillance.     

船舶密闭舱室火灾过程及其模拟计算

密闭舱室火灾是一个三维非定常过程，压力升高是这一过程的重要特征。本文采用质量守恒的方法进行压力校正，建立了计算密闭舱室火灾过程的数学物理模型，数值计算采用非均匀交错网格，结果与实验和理论分析相符较好。