Minimal Symmetric Differences of Lines in Projective Planes

Let q be an odd prime power and let be the minimum size of the symmetric difference of r lines in the Desarguesian projective plane . We prove some results about the function , in particular showing that there exists a constant such that for .     

Filtering and change point estimation for hidden Markov-modulated Poisson processes

A continuous-time Markov chain which is partially observed in Poisson noise is considered, where a structural change in the dynamics of the hidden process occurs at a random change point. Filtering and change point estimation of the model is discussed. Closed-form recursive estimates of the conditional distribution of the hidden process and the random change point are obtained, given the Poisson process observations     

带止步与中途退出策略的M~x/M/1/N单重工作休假排队系统

研究了带有止步和中途退出的M~x/M/1/N单重工作休假排队系统.顾客成批到达,到达后每批中的顾客,或者以概率b决定进入队列等待服务,或者以概率1-b止步(不进入系统).顾客进入系统后可能因为等待的不耐烦而在没有接受服务的情况下离开系统(中途退出).系统中一旦没有顾客,服务员立即进入单重工作休假.首先,利用马尔科夫过程理论建立了系统稳态概率满足的方程组.其次利用矩阵解法求出了稳态概率的矩阵解并得到了系统的平均队长、平均等待队长以及顾客的平均消失概率等性能指标.最后通过数值例子分析了工作休假时的低服务率η和休假率θ这两个参数对系统平均队长的影响.     

交叉概率对改进遗传算法运算速度影响的测试与分析

在现有文献基础上,通过理论分析,提出了交叉概率应取1.通过四个测试函数的测试结果,表明交叉概率越大,运算速度越快,平均运行代数越少,验证了通过理论分析提出的交叉概率应取1的科学性和可行性.同时克服了交叉概率难以确定以及确定交叉概率时缺少理论依据的不足.     

Reliability analysis of a single warm-standby system subject to repairable and nonrepairable failures

An n-unit system provisioned with a single warm standby is investigated. The individual units are subject to repairable failures, while the entire system is subject to a nonrepairable failure at some finite but random time in the future. System performance measures for systems observed over a time interval of random duration are introduced. Two models to compute these system performance measures, one employing a policy of block replacement, and the other without a block replacement policy, are developed. Distributional assumptions involving distributions of phase type introduce matrix Laplace transformations into the calculations of the performance measures. It is shown that these measures are easily carried out on a laptop computer using Microsoft Excel. A simple economic model is used to illustrate how the performance measures may be used to determine optimal economic design specifications for the warm standby.     

Modeling sequence scrambling and related phenomena in mixed-model production lines

In this paper we examine the various effects that workstations and rework loops with identical parallel processors and stochastic processing times have on the performance of a mixed-model production line. Of particular interest are issues related to sequence scrambling. In many production systems (especially those operating on just-in-time or in-line vehicle sequencing principles), the sequence of orders is selected carefully to optimize line efficiency while taking into account various line balancing and product spacing constraints. However, this sequence is often altered due to stochastic factors during production. This leads to significant economic consequences, due to either the degraded performance of the production line, or the added cost of restoring the sequence (via the use of systems such as mix banks or automated storage and retrieval systems). We develop analytical formulas to quantify both the extent of sequence scrambling caused by a station of the production line, and the effects of this scrambling on downstream performance. We also develop a detailed Markov chain model to analyze related issues regarding line stoppages and throughput. We demonstrate the usefulness of our methods on a range of illustrative numerical examples, and discuss the implications from a managerial point of view.     

全概率公式的推广及其应用

全概率公式及其思想在概率统计与随机过程中具有重要作用.给出了公式在条件概率下的推广形式与具体应用.同时,得到了独立性条件下的特殊形式.     

假期中顾客以概率θ进人的Geo/G/1(E,SV)排队系统的队长分布

考虑单重休假的Geo/G/1离散时间排队系统,其中在服务员休假期间到达的顾客以概率θ(0<θ≤1)进入系统.通过引入"服务员忙期"和使用全概率分解技术,从任意初始状态出发,研究了队长的瞬态和稳态性质,导出了在任意时刻n瞬态队长分布的z-变换的递推表达式和稳态队长分布的递推表达式,以及稳态队长的随机分解.最后,通过数值实例,讨论了稳态队长分布对系统参数的敏感性,并阐述了获得便于计算的稳态队长分布的表达式在系统容量设计中有重要的价值.     

Tail behavior of supremum of a random walk when Cramér’s condition fails

We investigate tail behavior of the supremum of a random walk in the case that Cramer＇s condition fails, namely, the intermediate case and the heavy-tailed ease. When the integrated distribution of the increment of the random walk belongs to the intersection of exponential distribution class and O-subexponential distribution class, under some other suitable conditions, we obtain some asymptotic estimates for the tail probability of the supremum and prove that the distribution of the supremum also belongs to the same distribution class. The obtained results generalize some corresponding results of N. Veraverbeke. Finally, these results are applied to renewal risk model, and asymptotic estimates for the ruin probability are presented.     

具有常数红利边界的两类索赔相关风险模型数

研究常数红利边界下两类索赔相关的风险模型,两类索赔计数过程分别为独立的Poisson过程和广义Erlang(2)过程.利用分解Gerber-Shiu函数的方法,得到了Gerber-Shiu函数满足的积分-微分方程、边界条件、解析表达式及两类索赔额均服从指数分布时的破产概率表达式.