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为克服机器学习方法在油藏单井产量预测中的过拟合问题,提高油田生产中的产量预测精度,提出一种基于条件生成式对抗网络(CGAN)的油藏单井产量预测模型。该模型使用长短期记忆、全连接等基础神经网络,构建生成和判别网络模型。生成网络模型以产量影响因素为条件输入,生成预测产量数据,利用对数损失函数评价预测数据与真实数据之间的偏差,通过条件生成式对抗网络的博弈训练,并结合贝叶斯超参数优化算法,优化模型结构,综合提高模型的泛化能力。基于Eclipse数值模拟软件建立同一井网条件下不同地质和生产条件下的油藏单井产量数据库,以地质与生产条件等产量影响因素作为模型的条件输入,进行油藏单井产量预测。结果表明:与全连接神经网络(FCNN)、随机森林(RF)以及长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)模型的预测结果相比,CGAN模型在测试集上的平均绝对百分比误差分别提升了2.59%、 0.81%以及1.72%,并且过拟合比最小(1.027)。说明CGAN降低了机器学习产量预测模型的过拟合程度,提高了模型的泛化能力与预测精度,验证了所提算法的优越性,对指导油田高效开发和保障我国能源战略安全具有重要意义。 相似文献
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In mobile edge computing systems, the edge server placement problem is mainly tackled as a multi-objective optimization problem and solved with mixed integer programming, heuristic or meta-heuristic algorithms, etc. These methods, however, have profound defect implications such as poor scalability, local optimal solutions, and parameter tuning difficulties. To overcome these defects, we propose a novel edge server placement algorithm based on deep q-network and reinforcement learning, dubbed DQN-ESPA, which can achieve optimal placements without relying on previous placement experience. In DQN-ESPA, the edge server placement problem is modeled as a Markov decision process, which is formalized with the state space, action space and reward function, and it is subsequently solved using a reinforcement learning algorithm. Experimental results using real datasets from Shanghai Telecom show that DQN-ESPA outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms such as simulated annealing placement algorithm (SAPA), Top-K placement algorithm (TKPA), K-Means placement algorithm (KMPA), and random placement algorithm (RPA). In particular, with a comprehensive consideration of access delay and workload balance, DQN-ESPA achieves up to 13.40% and 15.54% better placement performance for 100 and 300 edge servers respectively. 相似文献
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Payment data is one of the most valuable assets that retail banks can leverage as the major competitive advantage with respect to new entrants such as Fintech companies or giant internet companies. In marketing, the value behind data relates to the power of encoding customer preferences: the better you know your customer, the better your marketing strategy. In this paper, we present a B2B2C lead generation application based on payment transaction data within the online banking system. In this approach, the bank is an intermediary between its private customers and merchants. The bank uses its competence in Machine Learning driven marketing to build a lead generation application that helps merchants run data driven campaigns through the banking channels to reach retail customers. The bank’s retail customers trade the utility hidden in its payment transaction data for special offers and discounts offered by merchants. During the entire process banks protects the privacy of the retail customer. 相似文献
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Jinhui Yang Juan Zhao Junqiang Song Jianping Wu Chengwu Zhao Hongze Leng 《Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)》2022,24(3)
The prediction of chaotic time series systems has remained a challenging problem in recent decades. A hybrid method using Hankel Alternative View Of Koopman (HAVOK) analysis and machine learning (HAVOK-ML) is developed to predict chaotic time series. HAVOK-ML simulates the time series by reconstructing a closed linear model so as to achieve the purpose of prediction. It decomposes chaotic dynamics into intermittently forced linear systems by HAVOK analysis and estimates the external intermittently forcing term using machine learning. The prediction performance evaluations confirm that the proposed method has superior forecasting skills compared with existing prediction methods. 相似文献
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This paper shows if and how the predictability and complexity of stock market data changed over the last half-century and what influence the M1 money supply has. We use three different machine learning algorithms, i.e., a stochastic gradient descent linear regression, a lasso regression, and an XGBoost tree regression, to test the predictability of two stock market indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations) Composite. In addition, all data under study are discussed in the context of a variety of measures of signal complexity. The results of this complexity analysis are then linked with the machine learning results to discover trends and correlations between predictability and complexity. Our results show a decrease in predictability and an increase in complexity for more recent years. We find a correlation between approximate entropy, sample entropy, and the predictability of the employed machine learning algorithms on the data under study. This link between the predictability of machine learning algorithms and the mentioned entropy measures has not been shown before. It should be considered when analyzing and predicting complex time series data, e.g., stock market data, to e.g., identify regions of increased predictability. 相似文献
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《Mechatronics》2016
The ubiquitous development of information and communication technology enables new opportunities for products as well as for production and manufacturing systems. These systems will be able to learn and adapt their behaviour during the systems operation for a continuos optimization. This results in an increasing structural complexity and dynamics of products, production networks, processes and organizations, which in turn requires an on-going adaption and reinvention of the organizing principles and solutions. Therefore, new products as well as their corresponding production and logistic processes spawn research activities in the field of advanced information techniques and system integrated intelligence to cope with the complexity and dynamics of future manufacturing networks. 相似文献